Market Radar India: Rates hold amid record office leasing and landmark RE deals

The Macro View

The Indian economy has hit a strategic goldilocks zone, where policy stability is meeting aggressive trade diplomacy. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, unanimously voted to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% last Friday (06/02).

This decision follows a cumulative 125 basis point reduction in rates since February 2025, signaling an end to the current easing cycle as inflation remains benign at a projected 3.2% for the current quarter.

The domestic stability provided by the RBI is being bolstered by a surprise breakthrough on the global stage: the India-US interim trade deal. Under this framework, the US will slash reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from a daunting 50% down to 18%. 

While some analysts remain cautious about the long-term trade balance, Goldman Sachs has already raised India's growth forecast, suggesting the deal could unlock a vital private investment cycle by mitigating trade uncertainty.

Capital Flows

India’s financial and real estate sectors are demonstrating significant institutional resilience as 2026 begins, anchored by major global acquisitions and record-breaking absorption.

Private Equity & Financial Services

A landmark deal saw a consortium of investors led by Carlyle Group Inc. agree to acquire a 73% stake in Nido Home Finance for approximately INR 21 billion (USD 232 million).

This transaction includes a INR 15 billion primary capital infusion, allowing Edelweiss Financial Services to divest its stake.

The news triggered an 11% intraday jump in Edelweiss shares, underscoring global confidence in India’s housing finance sector, particularly as Nido serves over 800 sub-districts.

Record Office Absorption

Meanwhile, the office sector continues its record-breaking streak, with Q4 2025 posting 24.7 million square feet in gross leasing, representing the second-highest quarterly volume ever recorded.

Demand is increasingly diversified as the IT-BPM sector remains the primary driver by accounting for 25% of total leasing, while flex operators have reached their highest-ever activity level by contributing 22% of the volume as companies across the board seek more agile workspace solutions.

Trend Spotlight

Senior Care

India’s senior citizen population is projected to reach 190 million by 2030. The senior care market - estimated at USD 10-15 billion currently - is poised to explode into a USD 50 billion opportunity within the next decade.

To support this, the 2026 budget has committed to training 1.5 lakh geriatric caregivers under the National Skills Qualifications Framework (NSQF) to bridge the acute service gap.

Logistics

India’s warehousing stock has crossed 610 million square feet as of 2025, with a target of 850 million square feet by 2030. The real shift is in technology; automation adoption is expected to skyrocket from 10% to 76% by 2030. 

This growth is driving massive industrial commitments, such as Apple supplier Jabil’s new 10-year lease for 4.1 lakh square feet in Pune.

Tech Expansion

Google-parent Alphabet is spearheading a massive expansion in Bangalore, leasing one tower and securing options on two others in Alembic City, Whitefield.

Totaling 2.4 million square feet, this complex could house up to 20,000 additional staff, effectively doubling Google's Indian footprint as US firms shift critical work to India amid tightening H-1B visa rules.

Infrastructure

Construction leader Turner International has scaled its partnership with WeWork India, moving from a 16-seat setup in 2022 to a 46,000 square feet managed office at Gigaplex, Navi Mumbai.

The facility will accommodate over 650 professionals, reflecting a growing preference for scalable, customised workspace models that blend corporate identity with operational efficiency.

Urban Renewal

The Delhi Development Authority (DDA) has approved transformative projects including the "Delhi Eye" observation wheel in Mayur Vihar and a massive 49,457 square meter warehouse complex in Kirti Nagar to resolve chronic congestion.

Meanwhile, in Mumbai, Sattva Group has launched an INR 11,000 crore redevelopment pipeline to replace ageing structures across 8 million square feet of prime land.

Look out for a new edition of the GRI Institute's Market Radar India next week!