The Trillion-Dollar Gap Fuelling India's Real Estate Future

What if you could invest in an economy that has the warehousing footprint of the 1980s United States and the digital infrastructure of the early 2000s, but with the demographic tailwind of a nation just entering its prime? This isn't a theoretical scenario; it's the current state of India.

While global investors often compare the Indian growth story to that of China, a key data point is often missed: in 1990, India’s per capita income was actually higher than China’s, at USD 368 against USD 319.

Today, India’s per capita sits at USD 2,800, while China's has soared to an incredible USD 13,000. That gap doesn't just represent history; it represents the scale of the opportunity ahead.

A deep dive into the country's core data reveals a structural runway for real estate development that will be decades long.

India's unmatched demographic dividend

Unlike the ageing economies of the West and China, India's greatest asset is its young, productive, and increasingly less-burdened workforce. 

The most critical metric for understanding this is the dependency ratio, which measures the non-working population (children under 15 and elders over 64) that the working-age population must support.

India's ratio is currently 47%, but over the next 25 years, it is projected to fall to a remarkable low of 35%. This demographic dividend creates a massive domestic pool of savings, productivity, and consumption.

This stands in stark contrast to its global peers. In the same period, China’s ratio is set to rise from 47% to 71%, and the US from 53% to 65%. India is not just growing; it is becoming more productive while its main competitors face the economic headwinds of an ageing population.

A massive wave of urbanisation

This young, productive workforce is on the move, fuelling a massive urbanisation wave that requires a complete build-out of new real estate ecosystems.

Today, 34% of India is urban. This 34% lives on just 3% of the nation's landmass but produces a staggering 70% of its GDP, and this trend is only accelerating. Over the next 25 years, India is projected to become 50% urbanised.

This migration will unleash unprecedented demand, not just for housing, but for the offices, retail centres, hospitals, and logistics networks required to support hundreds of millions of new, economically active city-dwellers.
 

The immense gap: a runway for growth

The sheer scale of development required becomes clear when comparing India's current infrastructure stock to global peers. The gap is staggering and illustrates the non-cyclical nature of the opportunity.

Industrial and power infrastructure

Industrialisation and digitisation are impossible without power. India’s current generation capacity is 436 gigawatts (GW). This is a fraction of China’s 3,500 GW and the US’s sub-2,000 GW. To industrialise like China, India's energy infrastructure must expand massively.

Digital infrastructure and data centres

As the world moves online, India's digital economy is running on a thread. Despite producing 20 zettabytes (1 zettabyte equals 1 billion terabytes) of data a year, the country has less than 2 gigawatts of data centre capacity. 

This is dwarfed by China’s 34 GW and the US’s 60 GW. As AI and online communication become standard, the demand for data centres will explode.

Consumption infrastructure and warehousing

The gap is perhaps most dramatic in logistics. As a high-consumption economy emerges, it needs a modern warehousing backbone. India’s entire national warehousing stock is just 535 million square feet. The US, by comparison, has 13 billion square feet - 24 times the floorspace despite being only 3 times the size of India.

In fact, the Chicago metro area alone has 1.2 billion square feet of warehousing, more than double the entire stock of India.

The investor takeaway

The opportunity in Indian real estate is not a short-term trade. It is a long-term, structural growth story based on three undeniable pillars: a uniquely productive young population, a massive migration to economically powerful cities, and a low starting base for the essential infrastructure of a modern economy.

The data shows that for India to simply support the ambitions of its people and its economy, this runway of development isn't just an opportunity for investors; it is a fundamental necessity for the nation.
 

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These strategic insights were shared during the panel discussion on the "Strategic Blueprint of Retail & Hospitality's Evolution - Branded Vs. Boutique & Global Investor Preferences".

The session was moderated by Pankaj Renjhen, COO, ANAROCK Retail, and featured reflections from leading experts including Anshu Sarin, Chief Executive Officer, 91 Springboard; Karthik Krishna, Co-founder & Managing Partner, EverVantage; Rahul Pandit, MD & CEO, Advent Hotels International; Rajneesh Mahajan, CEO, Inorbit Malls; Ranvir Bhandari, President, Miros Hotels & Resorts; Rao Munukutla, CEO & Executive Director, BACL; and Zubin Saxena, Sr. Vice President, Region Head – South Asia, Hilton.

Access the full takeaways and C-level insights in the exclusive India GRI 2025 Spotlight.