Retrofit, Redevelopment, and the UK's Shifting CRE Market

Written by Helen Richards

Key Takeaways:

• The UK CRE market is shifting its focus to refurbishment and repositioning of existing assets, driven by high new-build costs, capital market dislocation, and an urgent need to use existing stock.
• Viability in refurbishment can be unlocked through a significant discount to replacement cost and an entrepreneurial procurement approach, including using construction management and smaller contractors to mitigate risk premiums.
• Occupier demand for high-quality, sustainable, and complete spaces is forcing investors to take speculative risk in delivering finished products.

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The United Kingdom's commercial real estate (CRE) market is at an inflection point, with new development viability challenged by high costs, interest rates remaining above historical norms, and a lack of available equity. As a result, capital is increasingly shifting focus from new builds to the repositioning, refurbishment, and redevelopment of existing assets.

This sentiment was the cornerstone of a recent GRI Institute roundtable, UK CRE in a Shifting Market, held in partnership with JLL.

The Imperative of Repositioning

The move toward repositioning existing buildings is driven by economic and environmental realities. An estimated 80% of the buildings that people will occupy in 2050 already exist. This fact, combined with hundreds of thousands of square feet of vacant office, retail, and hotel space, makes the case for repurposing undeniable.

The retail sector has already completed this cycle, offering a template for what is now happening in offices. The "online threat" forced a reckoning in retail, leading to a huge bifurcation between prime retail and underperforming assets. The strategy became "bigger, better, fewer" - a constant evolution of assets through physical building changes, tenant mix, and improved leisure offerings, with zero ground-up development.

For other asset classes, repositioning doesn't always mean a change of use. Instead, it’s about making a building more relevant to modern occupiers by adding amenities like welfare, food and beverage (F&B), and greater interaction. 

However, some buildings will require a change of use, with natural light penetration and structural parameters such as floor-to-ceiling heights being critical factors in determining a successful conversion.

The Investor’s Dilemma: Risk and Returns

A major theme of the discussion was the disconnect between the operational and capital markets, and the heightened risk profile of refurbishment.

Investment Strategy

Many investors are looking to deploy capital, but need assets to be more appropriately priced to account for the risk. The goal is to establish a clear margin that adequately compensates the investor for undertaking refurbishment and covering potential cost, planning, and leasing risks. This calculus is currently difficult because:

• Lack of Equity: The market is still suffering a "hangover" from the extremely low rates that made speculative new-build profitable.
• Discount to Replacement Cost: Assets need to trade at a very significant discount to replacement cost to justify the expense and risk of refurbishment.
• The Capital Stack Shift: The overall risk curve has shifted, with value-add investors moving toward opportunistic strategies, and core-plus investors taking on what was traditionally value-add risk.

Construction Costs and Viability

The uncertainty of construction costs and timelines was identified as the biggest impediment to repositioning buildings. Developers and contractors are currently pricing in risk due to uncertainty about the final scope of work.

To unlock viability, a more entrepreneurial approach to procurement is necessary. This strategy includes construction management which involves packaging work more effectively to reduce contractor risk by breaking the project into smaller, well-defined scopes to limit uncertainty.

Additionally, moving beyond Tier 1 or Tier 2 firms to utilise Tier 3 contractors is advisable, as the traditional procurement route with larger firms often means higher costs, which can hurt project appraisals.
 

Planning and Policy: The Speed of Approvals

Planning authorities are trying to adapt to the new reality, and half of all planning applications in the City of London are now for retrofit. A key policy shift is the move from a presumption of demolition to a presumption of retrofit.

However, the speed of development is largely hindered by the slow planning process, with a 6-12 month reduction in the planning timeline having the potential to substantially help the IRR.

The concept of a free-planning regime - or at least allowing blanket mixed-use for redevelopment in certain zones - was also debated as a way to let the market organically express what it demands, thereby providing more certainty for investors who price uncertainty as risk.

Occupiers and Polarisation

The demand side for high-quality, repurposed office space remains strong, driven by employee needs. The "flight to quality" is evident, with prime Grade-A office space in the City of London having a low 1.5% vacancy rate.

Employees, especially the younger generation, are demanding a sustainable and attractive workspace with good F&B, welfare, and accessibility. This is forcing companies to come back to the office and seek the best space.

Meanwhile, investors are increasingly realising they must take the risk to deliver a complete product. Tenants are reluctant to sign on to a project until they can visualise the space and have certainty that it will be delivered.

The growing polarisation of regions is a significant concern. While London, Manchester, and Edinburgh have vibrant, developed places with high demand, outlying urban boroughs face a real challenge.

These areas need patient equity and significant central government funding to serve as a catalyst for placemaking. Without it, the viability simply doesn't exist, as one speaker noted: "When you need the state to do it, usually that's a bad sign".
 

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Thank you to Anders Hemmingsen (Strategic Value Partners), Colin Campbell (Pradera), Jonathan Wiedemann (JLL), Sara Willard (Workable City Development), and Tom Sleigh (City of London Corporation) for their valuable contributions to the discussion at UK CRE in a Shifting Market.