Resisting the Pressures: Insights from JLL’s UK Construction Perspective 2026 Mid-Year Update

JLL examines how global geopolitical shocks, sticky interest rates, and commodity volatility are reshaping UK construction cost forecasts and project timelines

July 27, 2026Real Estate

Executive Summary

In this latest edition of our Thought Leadership collaboration, the GRI Institute is proud to present JLL’s UK Construction Perspective 2026 - Mid-Year Update insights, providing a critical analysis of how a fast-evolving macroeconomic landscape is testing project viability and shifting construction timelines across the UK.

In the lead up to our Strategic Repurposing and Retrofitting for UK CRE roundtable at Six Park Place in London on 20th October, co-hosted by JLL, this research offers vital clarity for developers, investors, and asset managers seeking to navigate escalating cost pressures, manage supply chain volatility, and safeguard capital deployment.

Key Takeaways

Geopolitical shocks and rising energy prices have widened JLL's 2026 UK Tender Price Index forecast range to between 2.8% and 4.5%.
New-build project pipelines continue to contract across UK regions, leaving renovation, repair, and maintenance works to drive overall industry output.
Escalating material prices and sustained high interest rates mean developers must adopt wider contingency planning and engage supply chains early to protect project viability.

A Volatile First Half Reshapes the Horizon

While early 2026 brought tentative optimism driven by anticipated monetary easing and solid investor sentiment, as revealed in the previous edition of JLL’s Construction Perspective Update, major external shocks have recalibrated expectations.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, trade measures, and elevated commercial energy costs have reversed the price stabilisation seen in recent years. At the same time, the Bank of England holding interest rates has removed an expected financing tailwind, pushing the broader recovery in new-build pipelines further into the horizon.

Despite these headwinds, underlying investor confidence in UK real estate remains steady. In response to tough new-build economics, repair, maintenance, and refurbishment activity continues to bolster construction output across key regions.

To adapt, forward-thinking organisations are moving away from traditional models, adopting wider contingency planning, early supply chain engagement, and advanced risk-sharing procurement strategies.

What’s inside the report?

Revised Cost Forecasts: Explore JLL’s updated house view on Tender Price Index (TPI) inflation and understand the compounding forces pushing cost escalation.
Global Shocks and Commodity Volatility: Uncover how Middle East conflicts, shipping disruptions, and energy price swings are impacting energy-intensive materials like steel, glass, and cement.
The Copper and M&E Impact: Examine why surging copper demand—driven by AI data centres, EV manufacturing, and grid infrastructure—is creating outsized cost pressure on mechanical and electrical packages.
Regional Pipeline Dynamics: Discover how new-build pipeline slowdowns and repair and maintenance activity are playing out across London and the UK regions.
Political Transition and Funding: Assess the potential implications of UK political leadership changes and devolved infrastructure spending on project delivery speed.
Strategic Project Guidance: Learn practical approaches for stress-testing cost plans, structuring procurement, and mitigating supply chain risks in H2 2026 and beyond.

For real estate decision-makers looking to navigate ongoing volatility with precision, JLL’s mid-year update provides an indispensable tool for strategic capital planning ahead of what promises to be an unpredictable second half of the year.

► Read the full JLL UK Construction Perspective 2026 - Mid-Year Update to explore how to protect project viability in a complex construction landscape