Latin America's new economic rhythm reshapes real estate confidence in 2026

A USD 687 billion market seeks new certainties

The real estate investment market in Latin America reached USD 687.70 billion in 2024, according to IMARC Group. The figure is not just a scale indicator but a barometer of the strategic relevance that the real estate sector holds for the region's economies. The projection toward 2033 raises that figure to USD 1,278.80 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.40%, making Latin American real estate one of the alternative investment segments with the greatest potential for sustained expansion in emerging markets.

However, that potential faces a complex juncture. Inflation trajectories, monetary policy decisions, and regulatory reforms are creating a heterogeneous landscape across the region's major markets. What drives investor confidence in Mexico does not necessarily operate the same way in Colombia, Chile, or Peru. Real estate leaders need a cross-cutting reading that connects macroeconomic signals with capital allocation decisions, and that reading constitutes the central axis of the analysis that follows.

The event "The New Rhythm of the Economy, What Drives Market Confidence?", organized by GRI Club in February 2026, precisely reflects this sector need: understanding how macroeconomic perspectives translate into concrete opportunities and risks for real estate investment. The high demand for this type of analysis among GRI Institute members confirms that the intersection between macroeconomics and real estate is today the primary decision-making axis for institutional players in the region.

How do inflation and interest rates affect real estate capital allocation in Colombia?

Colombia offers the most illustrative case of the tension between opportunity and caution. Inflation closed 2025 at 5.10%, according to DANE data. This figure, although lower than the peaks observed in previous years, continues to compel the Banco de la República to maintain elevated interest rates, which increases mortgage costs, pressures financing costs for developers, and slows the pace of sales in residential segments.

Munir Jalil, chief economist at BTG Pactual for the Andean region, has noted that this persistent inflation environment affects economic growth prospects for 2026 and 2027. Persistent inflation in Colombia represents a structural brake on the reactivation of the real estate cycle, forcing investors to prioritize assets with indexed cash flows and low exposure to consumer credit. For the real estate market, this means that assets with stable contractual income—such as prime offices with long-term leases, logistics assets with corporate tenants, and commercial properties with solid anchors—gain relevance over speculative residential projects.

But the Colombian context also presents a unique window. According to La Nota Económica and data from Ambana, more than $100 trillion Colombian pesos in Certificates of Deposit (CDT) are expected to mature in 2026. This massive maturity of fixed-income instruments opens a historic opportunity to channel those resources toward real estate investments, particularly into structured vehicles such as real estate funds and trusts offering competitive yields against traditional fixed income. The maturity of more than $100 trillion in CDTs during 2026 represents one of the largest portfolio rebalancing opportunities toward real assets in the recent history of the Colombian market.

On the regulatory front, the draft amendment to Title 9 of Decree 1077 of 2025 redefines the maximum caps for Social Interest Housing (VIS) at 135 SMLMV and Priority Interest Housing (VIP) at 90 SMLMV. The regulation requires developers to set and disclose the total price in Colombian pesos from the initial stages of the transaction, which introduces greater transparency for buyers but also limits pricing flexibility for developers. Industry players will need to recalibrate their financial models based on these new parameters.

What role do nearshoring and urban strategy play in reshaping the investment map?

While Colombia navigates the tension between inflation and financial opportunity, Mexico is consolidating a capital attraction cycle driven by industrial relocation. The Nearshoring Decree, published on January 21, 2025, as part of the Plan México, grants fiscal incentives including accelerated depreciation and additional deductions for training and innovation. These incentives aim to attract new investments and encourage the relocation of companies to Mexican territory.

For the real estate sector, the impact is direct and measurable in demand for industrial spaces, logistics parks, worker housing, and urban infrastructure along the nearshoring corridors in the north and the Bajío region. The nearshoring dynamic transforms the geography of real estate capital in Mexico: mid-sized cities such as Saltillo, San Luis Potosí, and Querétaro are positioning themselves as top-tier investment destinations, and competition for well-located industrial land with access to logistics infrastructure is intensifying.

In parallel, urban strategy is emerging as a determining factor for real estate appreciation across the region. The case of the Medellín Metro, under the leadership of Tomás Elejalde, projects achieving financial autonomy and regional and international expansion as part of its strategic direction for the next decade (2026-2036), according to El Tiempo reports. Mass transit infrastructure functions as a catalyst for real estate development and urban climate resilience, and projects that integrate sustainable mobility into their planning capture significant appreciation premiums.

The connection between urban strategy and real estate confidence is fundamental. Mass transit systems generate densification corridors that increase demand for mixed-use developments, vertical housing, and proximity retail spaces. For investors, the ability to identify and position themselves in these corridors before they mature represents a substantial competitive advantage.

Chile, for its part, is advancing the modernization of its regulatory framework with the regulations for the New Condominium Ownership Law (Law No. 21,442), published in the Official Gazette on January 9, 2025. The supreme decree specifies urban construction requirements, condominium administration, and conflict resolution, generating greater legal certainty for investors and property owners. This regulatory clarity strengthens confidence in the Chilean market as a destination for institutional real estate capital.

A heterogeneous regional landscape demands cross-cutting analysis

The divergence between macroeconomic conditions in each Latin American market prevents the formulation of a uniform regional investment thesis. Colombia faces persistent inflation but offers an unprecedented portfolio rebalancing window. Mexico capitalizes on nearshoring with concrete fiscal incentives that boost demand for industrial and logistics assets. Chile strengthens its institutional framework. Medellín demonstrates how urban strategy can trigger long-term real estate appreciation cycles.

This heterogeneity elevates the importance of comparative analysis and quality market intelligence. Institutional investors, developers with multi-country exposure, and real estate fund managers need reference frameworks that connect macro indicators with market-specific sectoral dynamics.

GRI Institute, through its ecosystem of events, research, and community of sector leaders, plays a central role in building that reference framework. The peer-to-peer discussions generated at GRI Club meetings allow contrasting perspectives from economists, developers, investors, and operators, generating a comprehensive vision that transcends desk-based analysis.

Where will the biggest real estate investment opportunities in Latin America be concentrated toward 2033?

With a market projected at USD 1,278.80 billion by 2033 according to IMARC Group, the question of geographic and sectoral allocation of real estate capital in Latin America acquires first-order strategic relevance.

Logistics and industrial assets linked to nearshoring supply chains in Mexico will maintain solid structural demand as long as the relocation trend persists. In Colombia, the transition of capital from fixed-income instruments to real assets could generate a significant flow toward real estate funds and income-generating projects. In Chile, the legal certainty reinforced by the new condominium regulations favors long-term institutional investment. And in cities where urban strategy and mobility infrastructure advance with a decade-long vision, such as Medellín, densification corridors offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.

The new rhythm of the Latin American economy is not uniform. It is a complex cadence where each market sets its own tempo. For real estate leaders, the ability to read those differences, anticipate inflection points, and position themselves ahead of market consensus will define who captures value in the next cycle and who merely watches.