Credit: Adobe StockMarket Radar Europe: ECB Holds Rates Amid Banking & Property Challenges
The latest developments in the European real estate market this week
October 31, 2025Real Estate
Written by Rory Hickman
ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the eurozone's risks are receding, with growth remaining steady, though external factors such as global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions continue to pose challenges.
Lagarde emphasised that while inflation is near the ECB’s 2% target, mixed performances across member states and external uncertainties - particularly relating to China's market practices - require continued vigilance.
According to Bloomberg, the ECB's cautious stance contrasts with the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, reflecting the bank's focus on a resilient labour market and strong private sector balance sheets.
Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations, with France driving the expansion. However, Germany's economy remains weak, while Italy's growth has stalled. The Financial Times highlighted that despite these challenges, France's robust performance offers some optimism.
Despite some investor expectations of a rate cut by mid-2026, most analysts anticipate that the ECB will maintain its current rate for the foreseeable future, as reported by AP News.
Overall, while the eurozone shows resilience, the ECB’s decision reflects its cautious approach amidst persistent global risks.
Mortgage approvals were stable, with a slight 1% drop from July 2025. Housing starts rose by 2% in Q2 2025, though completions fell by 2%, showing a 19% drop compared to the same period in 2024.
Despite the modest growth, the market remains cautious, with uncertainty around potential new property taxes, particularly affecting homes over GBP 500,000.
The UK's affordable housing crisis deepens, with rising construction costs and regulatory changes making it harder to meet demand, while the government’s planning and infrastructure bill, aiming to relax environmental protections, could also risk the UK’s trade deal with the EU.
Housebuilders have warned that the UK government's target of 1.5 million new homes by the decade's end may not be met without further policy support, as reported by BBC.
As Bloomberg reports, UniCredit’s attempts in Italy and BBVA’s bid for Banco Sabadell in Spain both fell through. Smaller, regional mergers continue, while larger banks like Deutsche Bank focus on bolt-on acquisitions to build scale.
Despite tightened loan margins, non-bank lenders are increasing their market share as banks reduce exposure, especially in France where office and retail loans face higher losses.
Aareal Bank’s completion of its first Synthetic Risk Transfer (SRT) transaction for EUR 2bn of European CRE loans is another notable development, enhancing capital efficiency. The RE Capital Europe report reveals that similar transactions are gaining traction across other banks.
This follows reports in September that the ECB is streamlining approval times for SRTs to 10 working days, aiming to make these transactions more efficient and increase their appeal to banks.
Europe’s banking sector faces hurdles in consolidation, but financing strategies like SRTs and back-leverage loans are helping address challenges in both the banking and CRE markets.
Look out for a new edition of the GRI Institute's Market Radar Europe next week!
Key Takeaways:
- The ECB has held interest rates at 2%, with growth and inflation under control, despite global uncertainties.
- The UK housing market saw modest growth but remains cautious, with uncertainty surrounding new property taxes.
- Europe’s banking consolidation has faced setbacks, but new financing strategies like SRTs are helping the CRE market.
ECB Maintains Interest Rates Amid Modest Growth and Inflation Control
The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its key interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, citing stable inflation and ongoing economic growth.ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the eurozone's risks are receding, with growth remaining steady, though external factors such as global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions continue to pose challenges.
Lagarde emphasised that while inflation is near the ECB’s 2% target, mixed performances across member states and external uncertainties - particularly relating to China's market practices - require continued vigilance.
According to Bloomberg, the ECB's cautious stance contrasts with the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, reflecting the bank's focus on a resilient labour market and strong private sector balance sheets.
Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations, with France driving the expansion. However, Germany's economy remains weak, while Italy's growth has stalled. The Financial Times highlighted that despite these challenges, France's robust performance offers some optimism.
Despite some investor expectations of a rate cut by mid-2026, most analysts anticipate that the ECB will maintain its current rate for the foreseeable future, as reported by AP News.
Overall, while the eurozone shows resilience, the ECB’s decision reflects its cautious approach amidst persistent global risks.
UK Property Market Sees Modest Growth Amid Challenges
UK house prices rose by 3.0% from August 2024 to August 2025, with a 0.2% increase between July and August 2025. Growth was strongest in the North East, Northern Ireland, and the North West, while London saw a decline, as reported in the government's UK House Price Index.Mortgage approvals were stable, with a slight 1% drop from July 2025. Housing starts rose by 2% in Q2 2025, though completions fell by 2%, showing a 19% drop compared to the same period in 2024.
Despite the modest growth, the market remains cautious, with uncertainty around potential new property taxes, particularly affecting homes over GBP 500,000.
The UK's affordable housing crisis deepens, with rising construction costs and regulatory changes making it harder to meet demand, while the government’s planning and infrastructure bill, aiming to relax environmental protections, could also risk the UK’s trade deal with the EU.
Housebuilders have warned that the UK government's target of 1.5 million new homes by the decade's end may not be met without further policy support, as reported by BBC.
Challenges in Europe’s Banking Sector and CRE Financing
Europe’s banking consolidation has been more complex than expected, with high-profile mergers stalling due to political and shareholder resistance.As Bloomberg reports, UniCredit’s attempts in Italy and BBVA’s bid for Banco Sabadell in Spain both fell through. Smaller, regional mergers continue, while larger banks like Deutsche Bank focus on bolt-on acquisitions to build scale.
Despite tightened loan margins, non-bank lenders are increasing their market share as banks reduce exposure, especially in France where office and retail loans face higher losses.
Aareal Bank’s completion of its first Synthetic Risk Transfer (SRT) transaction for EUR 2bn of European CRE loans is another notable development, enhancing capital efficiency. The RE Capital Europe report reveals that similar transactions are gaining traction across other banks.
This follows reports in September that the ECB is streamlining approval times for SRTs to 10 working days, aiming to make these transactions more efficient and increase their appeal to banks.
Europe’s banking sector faces hurdles in consolidation, but financing strategies like SRTs and back-leverage loans are helping address challenges in both the banking and CRE markets.
Look out for a new edition of the GRI Institute's Market Radar Europe next week!