Europe's €250 billion real estate funding gap and the principals racing to fill it

A quarter-trillion euro gap is rewriting European real estate finance

An estimated €250 billion funding gap will open in European real estate over the next five years, driven by bank retrenchment and valuation corrections, according to LaSalle Investment Management. The figure captures the scale of dislocation now rippling through the continent's property credit markets and explains why a cohort of principals, spanning UK-based developers, German-focused fund managers, and transatlantic special situations investors, is positioning aggressively across the capital stack.

The convergence of a massive refinancing pipeline, with significant volumes of debt maturing in 2025 and 2026 according to Asset Physics, and incoming regulatory pressure from Capital Requirements Directive 6 (CRD VI) and Basel IV is creating structural openings for non-bank capital. In continental Europe, non-bank lenders still account for a relatively small share of the real estate debt market compared to 70% in the United States and 40% in the United Kingdom, according to research from Affinius Capital and Bayes Business School. That imbalance is unlikely to persist.

GRI Institute has tracked the acceleration of alternative lending platforms across its European convenings, where institutional investors, fund managers, and developers converge to negotiate the terms of a new credit architecture. The principals at the centre of this recalibration merit closer examination.

Who is Jerome Roith and what is his role in UK property development?

Jerome Roith is a UK-based property developer and Managing Director at Carrington Group Limited, with over 25 years of experience in the sector. His involvement spans developments with a gross development value exceeding £50 million, according to GRI Institute data from 2024. Roith's career has been anchored in land acquisition, planning gain strategy, and residential development, a profile that positions him at the intersection of capital deployment and planning risk in the UK market.

While Roith's expertise is rooted in development rather than debt origination, his relevance to the broader European credit narrative is clear. UK developers with deep planning and entitlement experience are increasingly sought after by continental European capital allocators looking to deploy into British residential and mixed-use projects. As bank financing tightens under the new regulatory regime, developers who can de-risk projects at the planning stage become critical counterparties for alternative lenders.

The UK market, where non-bank lenders already command roughly 40% of real estate debt provision, offers a template for what continental Europe may look like within the decade. Principals like Roith, who understand both the development cycle and the credit environment, sit at a strategic node in the capital formation process.

How are Marco Zarges and Zaga Capital capitalising on Germany's residential deficit?

Germany faces a housing shortage of approximately 955,000 units by 2030, concentrated in the affordable and public housing segments, according to Colliers International. Against this backdrop, Marco Zarges has moved to establish Zaga Capital as a centralized investment platform targeting German residential opportunities.

In March 2026, Zaga Capital held a first close for its debut German residential fund, Opportunities II, with a targeted hard-cap, as reported by PERE News. The fund is designed to capture value in a market where transaction volume already registered a significant year-on-year increase in 2024, according to Colliers International, and where structural undersupply ensures sustained demand.

Germany's real estate market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2026 to 2033, reaching USD 240.4 billion, according to Grand View Research. Zarges's timing aligns with a period of price adjustment and policy recalibration that favours well-capitalised, operationally capable platforms.

The Zaga Capital strategy reflects a broader trend visible across GRI Institute's European network: institutional investors are rotating from core stabilised assets toward value-add and opportunistic residential plays, particularly in markets where regulatory and demographic forces guarantee long-term demand.

What is King Street Capital doing in European real estate credit?

Paul Brennan, Head of European Real Estate at King Street Capital Management, closed the firm's European Real Estate Special Situations Fund II at its hard-cap in July 2025, targeting credit-oriented investments across the continent, as reported by Real Estate Capital Europe. The fund represents one of the most significant pools of dedicated special situations capital focused on European property credit.

King Street's strategy is built on a straightforward thesis: as traditional banks face stricter requirements under CRD VI and Basel IV, including an output floor for risk-weighted asset models that tightens commercial real estate lending capacity, borrowers with performing assets will still need capital. The gap between what banks can provide and what borrowers require creates a pricing premium for alternative lenders willing to underwrite complexity.

The fund's closure at hard-cap signals strong institutional appetite for European real estate credit exposure. Investors are drawn to the risk-adjusted returns available in a market where refinancing needs are urgent and bank balance sheets are constrained. This is the structural shift that defines the current cycle.

Greykite's move into European healthcare real estate

Greykite, an independent European real estate investment firm founded in 2023, agreed to recapitalize Vitalia, Spain's second-largest senior care provider, in a landmark transaction alongside StepStone Real Estate, according to StepStone Group as of October 2025. The deal illustrates the expanding scope of European real estate capital deployment beyond traditional office and logistics sectors.

The Vitalia recapitalisation is notable for several reasons. It targets an operational real estate segment, senior care, where demographic tailwinds are among the strongest in Europe. It brings together a newly formed independent platform, Greykite, with an established institutional co-investor in StepStone. And it demonstrates that the repricing cycle is not confined to debt markets but extends to equity recapitalisations of operating businesses with significant property portfolios.

Greykite's emergence and rapid execution reinforce a pattern observed in GRI Institute's recent European gatherings: new platforms led by experienced principals are raising and deploying capital faster than at any point in the previous cycle, enabled by the dislocation in traditional financing channels.

Regulatory forces accelerating the shift

Three regulatory developments are shaping the environment in which these principals operate.

Capital Requirements Directive 6 (CRD VI) and Basel IV, with implementation beginning in 2026, introduce stricter requirements for banks to incorporate external data in monitoring asset market values and establish an output floor for risk-weighted asset models. The practical effect is a reduction in traditional bank lending capacity for commercial real estate, amplifying the €250 billion funding gap identified by LaSalle Investment Management.

Regulation (EU) 2024/1028, the EU Short-term Rentals Regulation, becomes effective on May 20, 2026. It mandates registration and data sharing between digital platforms and national authorities, a measure aimed at improving enforcement and addressing housing pressure. For residential-focused investors like Zaga Capital, the regulation adds a layer of compliance but also legitimises the regulatory framework around housing markets, potentially reducing political risk for long-term investors.

The Construction Services Act, part of the European Affordable Housing Plan and scheduled for adoption in Q4 2026, aims to facilitate cross-border provision of construction services while ensuring compliance with social and labour standards. For developers operating across multiple European jurisdictions, the act could reduce friction in project delivery, a meaningful consideration as housing deficits persist across Germany, Spain, and the broader EU.

The architecture of Europe's next credit cycle

The principals profiled here, Jerome Roith in UK development, Marco Zarges in German residential, Paul Brennan in pan-European credit, and the Greykite team in operational real estate, represent different nodes in an increasingly interconnected capital ecosystem. What connects them is the structural opportunity created by bank retrenchment, regulatory tightening, and persistent asset-level demand.

Europe's real estate credit market is entering a period of fundamental reorganisation. The non-bank share of lending in continental Europe remains well below the levels seen in the UK and the US, suggesting significant runway for growth. The principals and platforms now raising capital and executing transactions will define the terms of access to European property for years to come.

GRI Institute continues to convene senior decision-makers across these markets, providing the intelligence and relationship infrastructure that enables capital formation at scale. As the refinancing wave builds through 2026 and the regulatory landscape crystallises, the ability to identify and engage the right counterparties will separate the principals who shape the cycle from those who merely participate in it.