Investment radar: Colombia's energy pipeline demands $40 trillion pesos over the next decade

$40 trillion pesos: the figure that defines the urgency of Colombia's energy sector

Colombia needs to invest $40 trillion pesos in energy generation, transmission, and distribution over the next ten years to ensure supply reliability and prevent blackouts, according to figures released by Infobae based on BTG Pactual analysis. The scale of the pipeline places the country at the center of the debate on how to finance the energy transition amid high interest rates and country risk that raises the cost of capital.

This figure marks the starting point of a market radar that GRI Institute is developing to map actors, instruments, and bottlenecks in the Colombian energy infrastructure vertical. Market signals converge: international operators are bidding on substation projects along the Caribbean coast, the Medellín Metro is issuing sustainable bonds to electrify mass transit, and the Antioquia Governor's Office is structuring bridge loans to unlock highway megaprojects with energy components. The landscape demands an integrated reading.

How much capital does Colombia need to close the energy infrastructure gap?

The short answer is that the country needs to mobilize resources equivalent to $40 trillion pesos in generation, transmission, and distribution over the next decade. The long answer involves multiple layers of complexity.

Munir Jalil, chief economist at BTG Pactual, has warned that high interest rates and country risk are driving up the cost of available capital for energy transition projects in Colombia. This observation is relevant because most energy infrastructure assets have long maturation horizons and cash flows denominated in pesos, which amplifies the impact of financing costs on project viability.

Investor appetite, however, exists. According to data published by Infobae, 67% of companies in the sector plan to increase investment in power generation over the next year, while 45% will boost resources in innovation and renewable energy. These figures suggest that the corporate willingness to deploy capital is present, but it requires regulatory and financial conditions that reduce the risk premium.

The volume of investment required in Colombian energy infrastructure makes the country one of the most relevant markets in the Andean region for financial structurers, EPC operators, and infrastructure funds with energy transition mandates.

Electrical infrastructure: Grupo Ortiz and the UPME auction in the Caribbean region

One of the projects that illustrates the dynamics of Colombia's electrical pipeline is the UPME STR 02-2019 auction, a tender by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit for the design, construction, and operation of electrical substations in the department of Atlántico, under the so-called Plan 5 Caribe. The Consorcio Energía de Colombia, led by Grupo Ortiz, was awarded this contract for 698,844 million pesos, according to records from Energía Estratégica and UPME itself.

Grupo Ortiz is consolidating its position as a benchmark EPC contractor in the region. The Spanish company participates in both electrical infrastructure and road and hospital concessions under public-private partnership (PPP) schemes. Its contracted portfolio for upcoming fiscal years in infrastructure and energy areas reaches 1.431 billion euros globally, according to the Non-Financial Information Statement published by the company in March 2025.

With a global portfolio of 1.431 billion euros and a consolidated presence in UPME tenders, Grupo Ortiz represents the profile of international EPC operator that the Colombian market needs to execute its electrical transmission pipeline.

The UPME STR 02-2019 auction award is in the execution phase, and its progress will serve as an indicator of the real pace at which Colombia is advancing in strengthening its transmission grid, particularly along the Caribbean coast, where supply reliability has historically been more fragile.

How does Antioquia finance its infrastructure megaprojects amid tensions with the national government?

The region of Antioquia is emerging as a case study in subnational financial autonomy for infrastructure. Horacio Gallón, Secretary of Infrastructure of Antioquia, faces tensions with the National Government, particularly with the National Roads Institute (Invías), over the financing and execution of megaprojects such as the Túnel del Toyo and the Tren del Río.

Given the lack of disbursements from the National Government for the installation of electromechanical equipment at the Túnel del Toyo (Vía al Mar), the Antioquia Governor's Office proposed a bridge loan through the Institute for the Development of Antioquia (IDEA) for 120,000 million pesos, as reported by MiOriente based on sources from the Governor's Office. The full delivery of the project is expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027, subject to the resolution of equipment installation conflicts with Invías.

In mass transit, the tension is replicated. The Metro Law establishes that the national government contributes 70% and territorial entities 30% to co-finance mass transit systems. However, local authorities in Antioquia have noted that the region is absorbing larger proportions, on the order of 60/40, or even the full initial financing for projects such as the Tren del Río. The tender to build the first phase of this multipurpose train, from Bello to Barbosa, is expected to be awarded in 2027, according to statements from the Antioquia Secretary of Infrastructure.

Antioquia's pursuit of financial autonomy, through IDEA loans and bond issuances, foreshadows a model where Colombian regions take a more active role in structuring and executing strategic infrastructure projects.

Clean transport and sustainable bonds: the Medellín Metro's strategy

Tomás Elejalde, general manager of the Medellín Metro, is leading the decarbonization of urban transport in the Antioquia capital with a strategy that combines rail network expansion with the incorporation of electric buses and, centrally, the attraction of green financing.

The Medellín Metro structured a sustainable bond issuance of 350,000 million pesos to finance key mass transit and energy transition projects, as reported by Valora Analitik in March 2024. This operation positions the entity as one of the few public transport companies in Latin America accessing the green capital market to fund mobility infrastructure.

The issuance is significant in a context where Munir Jalil and other analysts have highlighted the rising cost of capital. Sustainable bonds offer an alternative pathway to attract institutional investors with ESG mandates, partially reducing dependence on national fiscal transfers that, as observed in the Túnel del Toyo case, face recurring delays.

The opportunity map: actors and investment vectors

The investment radar for Colombian energy infrastructure reveals four simultaneous activity vectors:

1. Power generation and transmission: with an accumulated deficit requiring $40 trillion over the next decade and UPME auctions already awarded to operators such as Grupo Ortiz.

2. Decarbonized mass transit: driven by sustainable bond issuances such as the Medellín Metro's 350,000 million pesos and the upcoming Tren del Río tender in 2027.

3. Regional megaprojects with autonomous financing: where the IDEA bridge loan of 120,000 million pesos for the Túnel del Toyo sets a precedent for subnational structuring.

4. Expanding corporate capital: with 67% of sector companies planning to increase investment in power generation and 45% directing resources toward innovation and renewables.

Industry leaders such as Munir Jalil, Tomás Elejalde, and Horacio Gallón actively participate in the discussion forums organized by GRI Institute to connect the actors in the infrastructure ecosystem across the Andean region. Events such as Infra Colombia GRI bring together financial structurers, developers, operators, and government authorities to advance the materialization of these projects.

Closing perspective

Colombia presents an energy infrastructure pipeline of significant scale, backed by quantified structural needs and an ecosystem of actors ranging from international EPC contractors to subnational entities innovating in financial instruments. The central challenge lies in closing the gap between the magnitude of required investment and the financing conditions available in a restrictive macroeconomic environment. The next 24 months, with the expected award of the Tren del Río and the completion of the Túnel del Toyo, will be decisive in gauging the real pace of execution of Colombia's pipeline.

GRI Institute will continue monitoring the evolution of these indicators and facilitating dialogue among the decision-makers shaping the future of energy infrastructure in Latin America.