Eduardo Osuna and banking's role in Mexico's new infrastructure cycle

Mexico's infrastructure plan opens a new front for commercial banking

The federal government will allocate additional infrastructure resources equivalent to 2% of GDP during 2026, according to data from the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP). The figure is part of the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-Being 2026-2030, the administration's most ambitious program in terms of public works and mixed investment schemes. In this context, the two largest banks with a national presence, BBVA Mexico under the leadership of Eduardo Osuna Osuna, and Grupo Financiero Banorte under Marcos Ramírez Miguel, have publicly stated their willingness to finance projects derived from this plan.

For industry leaders gathered at forums such as those organized by the GRI Institute, the central question is no longer whether there will be infrastructure investment, but how private and bank financing will be structured in an environment where public investment will gradually decline toward the end of the administration, according to projections from the Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria (CIEP).

Who is Eduardo Osuna Osuna and what is his influence on infrastructure financing?

Eduardo Osuna Osuna is the Vice President and CEO of BBVA Mexico, the subsidiary of the Spanish group that operates the country's largest banking network. From this position, Osuna has become one of the most influential voices in Mexico's financial system on the conditions required for long-term credit for infrastructure projects.

Eduardo Osuna's stance has been clear: infrastructure lending will depend on the financial viability of projects and the regulatory certainty provided by the institutional framework. This statement establishes the parameters under which private banks will evaluate their participation in the new investment cycle. Technical viability and legal certainty are prerequisites for the deployment of bank capital—a principle that industry participants recognize as decisive for the speed of execution of the government's plan.

BBVA Mexico, under Osuna's leadership, maintains a dominant position in the country's corporate lending market. Its financial structuring capability, combined with its balance sheet scale, makes it an indispensable player for any infrastructure program that aspires to mobilize private capital at scale.

Priority sectors: energy, railways, and highways concentrate investment

According to SHCP data released by the firm Nader, Hayaux & Goebel, the energy sector will account for the largest share of investments contemplated in the Infrastructure Plan 2026-2030. It is followed by the railway sector, with a 15.63% share, and highways, with 13.94% of the projected total.

This sectoral distribution provides concrete signals for commercial banks. Energy projects, which include generation, transmission, and distribution, require long-term financing structures with specific guarantees. Railway and highway projects, for their part, have historically been financed through infrastructure trusts and public-private partnership (PPP) schemes.

The plan establishes eight strategic sectors and envisions the creation of a Strategic Investment Planning Council, a body designed to coordinate project execution. However, the specific operating rules and legislative initiatives that will give the program its legal form remain pending publication, according to official federal government information.

How does Banorte position itself for the same investment cycle?

Grupo Financiero Banorte, led by Marcos Ramírez Miguel and chaired by Carlos Hank González, represents the other pillar of national bank financing for infrastructure. Banorte's corporate loan portfolio recorded strong annual growth during the first quarter of 2025, according to the group's own financial reports.

Banorte estimates it will increase its infrastructure lending budget in the coming years, driven by demand from subnational governments and opportunities arising from nearshoring, according to statements from the bank reported by Telediario in November 2024. This strategic direction positions Banorte as a direct competitor to BBVA Mexico in the race for financial structuring mandates under the government's plan.

The competitive dynamic between the two institutions largely defines the Mexican banking system's capacity to absorb the credit demand that the new cycle will generate. The depth of the financing market will depend on the willingness of both banks, alongside development banks, to take on long-term risks in a fiscal environment that presents mixed signals.

The fiscal challenge: declining public investment and a drop in PPPs

One of the factors conditioning banking strategy is the federal government's fiscal trajectory. According to CIEP projections, public investment will gradually decline toward the end of the administration. Adding to this trend is a revealing figure: projects financed through public-private partnerships will see an 89.5% drop from 2025 to 2026 in the federal budget.

This drastic reduction in the PPP budget poses a paradox for the sector. On one hand, the infrastructure plan announces a historic investment in mixed schemes. On the other, the federal budget for PPPs contracts sharply. Resolving this tension will depend on the specific mechanisms the government designs to channel private investment, whether through new legal instruments, renewed concessions, or infrastructure trusts with bank participation.

For commercial banks, this gap between programmatic ambition and budgetary constraint represents both a risk and an opportunity. The risk lies in the regulatory uncertainty surrounding the plan's execution. The opportunity lies in the inevitable need for private capital to bridge the financing gap.

Macroeconomic impact and growth outlook

The SHCP has indicated that the infrastructure plan could push Mexico's GDP growth above the original range set in the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2026. If this projection materializes, the multiplier effect of infrastructure investment would strengthen bank credit demand in related sectors, from construction materials to engineering services.

Infrastructure bank financing in Mexico is at an inflection point. The scale of the government's plan demands a coordinated response from the financial system, where institutions such as BBVA Mexico and Banorte assume leadership roles in structuring complex transactions.

Market outlook: regulatory certainty as the decisive variable

The effective participation of commercial banks in the Infrastructure Plan 2026-2030 will depend on three fundamental variables: the publication of the program's operating rules, the legal clarity of mixed investment schemes, and the ability of the Strategic Investment Planning Council to coordinate project execution.

Infrastructure sector leaders across Latin America, including those participating in GRI Institute discussions, agree that the strength of Mexico's pipeline is exceptional in the region, but its execution will require a level of institutional coordination that has yet to be demonstrated.

Eduardo Osuna, from BBVA Mexico, and Marcos Ramírez Miguel, from Banorte, represent two sides of the same bet: Mexico's commercial banking sector is ready to finance infrastructure, provided the rules of the game are clear and projects are financially viable. The market is watching closely to see whether the federal government can turn an ambitious plan into an executable and bankable pipeline.