The economists who decide what infrastructure gets built in Colombia and Peru

Infrastructure in Latin America advances or stalls based on macroeconomic diagnoses, regulatory decisions, and confidence signals issued by specific actors. In the Andean region, a small group of economists, government advisors, and private developers wields disproportionate influence over the project pipeline. Their projections shape the viability of concessions, their institutional positions determine the pace of execution, and their investment decisions reveal where private capital perceives opportunity.

This analysis examines four profiles that, from different angles, shape the conditions for infrastructure investment in Colombia and Peru: Munir Jalil through Colombia's macroeconomic outlook, Roberto Moreno Mejía through private execution of large-scale urban projects, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera through the institutional architecture of Peruvian public spending, and José Miguel Rawlins as a signal of systemic risk in the private capital market.

How do Munir Jalil and Roberto Moreno Mejía define the Colombian infrastructure investment cycle?

Munir Jalil, chief economist at BTG Pactual for the Andean region, has established himself as one of the voices with the greatest capacity to shape expectations in the Colombian market. His projection of 2.6% GDP growth for Colombia in 2025 marks, according to his analysis, the beginning of an economic recovery phase (BTG Pactual / Valora Analitik, January 2025). Jalil's reading goes beyond the individual data point: by projecting that inflation in Colombia will converge to the 3% target range by the end of 2025 and close the year at 3.8%, he builds the technical argument for the Banco de la República to continue cutting interest rates.

For the infrastructure sector, this signal has direct consequences. A declining rate environment reduces the financing cost of concessions and improves the return equation for public-private partnership projects. The Colombian Chamber of Infrastructure (CCI) projects that the civil works sector in Colombia would grow 5% in 2025, driven by the execution of fifth-generation (5G) projects. Jalil's optimistic diagnosis serves as macroeconomic validation of that investment cycle.

However, the reality of public execution introduces a severe contradiction. According to the CCI itself, the transportation sector in Colombia recorded its worst budget execution in history in 2025, spending less than half its budget. This gap between favorable macroeconomic conditions and institutional paralysis in spending execution defines the central dilemma of the Colombian market: macro signals invite investment, but the state's capacity to channel those resources into actual projects has critically deteriorated.

In this public execution vacuum, private capital finds its space. Roberto Moreno Mejía, through Amarilo, leads large-scale investments such as Lagos de Torca in Bogotá, a project with an estimated value of 3.5 to 4.5 trillion Colombian pesos (Caracol Radio / Amarilo, December 2025). Lagos de Torca represents the type of integrated urban infrastructure—with housing, transportation, and services components—that Colombia's public sector has been unable to execute at a comparable pace. Moreno Mejía embodies a model where the private developer assumes urban planning functions that traditionally belonged to the state.

The Jalil-Moreno combination illustrates a recurring dynamic in Colombia: the macro economist validates market conditions, and the private developer executes where the state falls short. GRI Institute members who participate in forums dedicated to Andean infrastructure have identified this asymmetry as one of the structural factors that shape project selection in the country.

The legislative debate adds another layer of complexity. Bill 232 of 2024, Colombia's Railway Law, seeks to regulate the infrastructure and operation of freight and passenger trains and create the National Railway Agency. Approved in its first debate in December 2024, this regulatory framework could open an entirely new segment of concessions. The question for investors is whether Colombia's institutional capacity, already overwhelmed in the road sector, can absorb the additional complexity of a national railway system.

What role does David Guillermo Miranda Herrera play in Peru's public investment architecture?

In Peru, the flow of infrastructure investment depends on a chain of technical decisions originating in the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). David Guillermo Miranda Herrera holds the position of Advisor to the Cabinet of Advisors of the Ministerial Office at the MEF (Peruvian State Platform, April 2025). From that position, Miranda Herrera operates as one of the technical filters through which the Peruvian government's spending and public investment decisions pass.

The role of a ministerial advisor at Peru's MEF acquires strategic relevance in a context where ProInversión's public-private partnership project portfolio for 2025-2026 exceeds $15.8 billion (ProInversión, September 2024). The approval of Law No. 32441, the new Public-Private Partnerships and Asset Projects Law, empowers ProInversión to act as the lead entity on large projects (exceeding 80,000 UIT), centralizing execution and reducing the fragmentation that has historically delayed awards.

Luis del Carpio, Director of ProInversión, has indicated that Peru could close its short-term infrastructure gap in four years if it maintains an award pace of $9 billion annually. This ambitious target requires the MEF's technical machinery—where Miranda Herrera is part of the advisory core—to operate with precision in order to unblock regulatory and budgetary bottlenecks.

Profiles like Miranda Herrera's are decisive precisely because they operate at the intersection of political will to invest and technical capacity to execute. At GRI Institute forums dedicated to Latin American infrastructure, private-sector participants have repeatedly noted that the predictability of Peru's institutional framework, rather than the individual profitability of each project, determines capital allocation decisions.

What does the Rawlins case reveal about private capital risks in Andean infrastructure?

José Miguel Rawlins, linked to Bicentenario Capital, faces a forced liquidation process initiated by Frontal Trust in February 2026 (La Tercera / GRI Hub, February 2026). His case constitutes a warning signal for the investment ecosystem in the region. Rawlins represented an active financial structuring profile in the private capital market, and his crisis exposes the fragility of certain investment vehicles when market conditions deteriorate.

The forced liquidation of a firm linked to the structuring of real assets sends a direct signal to the market: investment instruments that channel capital toward infrastructure and real estate assets face liquidity risks that transcend the individual quality of underlying projects. For institutional investors evaluating opportunities in the Andean region, the Rawlins case underscores the need for deep due diligence on the financial structure of vehicles, not just on the assets themselves.

This episode contrasts with the institutional strength shown by other ecosystem players. While Jalil projects from a top-tier banking platform, Moreno Mejía executes with proprietary capital on tangible projects, and Miranda Herrera operates within the Peruvian state apparatus, the Rawlins case is a reminder that the financial intermediation chain contains vulnerable links.

The influence map that defines the Andean pipeline

Infrastructure in Colombia and Peru is not built in the abstract. It advances when macroeconomic diagnoses generate confidence, when regulatory frameworks reduce uncertainty, when technical advisors in ministries unblock processes, and when private capital finds viable conditions for execution.

Munir Jalil shapes Colombian market expectations with projections that validate the recovery cycle. Roberto Moreno Mejía demonstrates that private capital can execute massive urban infrastructure where the state fails. David Guillermo Miranda Herrera operates as a technical gear in Peru's public investment machinery, precisely as the country seeks to award more than $15.8 billion in PPP projects. And the case of José Miguel Rawlins is a reminder that financial intermediation in the region carries risks that demand constant vigilance.

Understanding who influences decisions—and from what institutional position—is as valuable as analyzing the projects themselves. GRI Institute will continue mapping these influence profiles through its community of infrastructure leaders, its research, and its forums dedicated to the Andean market, where investment decisions are forged in direct conversations between those who set the rules and those who deploy the capital.