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Show",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_Saudi_Hub_Slider_2025_12_17_13_48_11_1765990091.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_Saudi_Hub_Cover_2025_12_17_13_48_11_1765990091.webp","2025-12-18T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: Adobe Stock","#FFFFFF","2025-12-24T00:00:00.000Z",2088,"2025-12-17T13:48:11.000Z","2025-12-17T14:53:43.000Z",[1462,1474],{"id":1463,"newsId":1447,"languageId":47,"title":1450,"subtitle":1464,"content":1465,"summary":978,"takeaways":1466,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1467,"seoKeywords":1468,"seoDescription":1469,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1470,"createdAt":1471,"updatedAt":1472,"language":1473},3025,"GRI Institute’s Global CEO Gustavo Favaron on navigating the realities behind Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and investment issues","From time to time, a ready-made narrative resurfaces in the specialised media about the Saudi real estate market: USD 1.25 trillion in investments, cities rising from the desert, linear growth through to 2033. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nIt is a powerful story for headlines, but one that quickly unravels when confronted with the reality faced by those who actually allocate capital, negotiate land, structure joint ventures, and, above all, compare returns and risks across the Gulf’s financial centres.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nThe objective here is not to dispute Saudi Arabia’s transformation. On the contrary, it is to treat it with the seriousness it deserves. And that requires distinguishing ambition from execution and risk, something that rarely appears in analyses produced from a distance.\r\n\u003Ch2>What is true about the “Saudi boom” and deserves recognition?\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>The scale of Vision 2030 is real\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nSaudi Arabia has set in motion more than USD 1.3 trillion in urban and infrastructure projects linked to Vision 2030, a figure reported by Bloomberg in 2024 when analysing the country’s consolidated portfolio of giga-projects.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Housing policy has delivered tangible progress\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nAccording to the Housing Program Annual Report 2024, published on the official Vision 2030 portal, the homeownership rate rose to approximately 65% in 2024, moving closer to the 70% target set for 2030. In other words, there is indeed a serious and measurable public policy agenda in place.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F01_Saudi_Hub_Adobe_Body_2025_12_17_16_49_58_1765990198.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Saudi Arabia has set in motion more than USD 1.3 trillion in urban and infrastructure projects linked to Vision 2030 (Wiki Commons)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>Where the optimistic narrative ends and reality begins\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>NEOM, The Line, and the execution constraint\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nIn 2024, Bloomberg confirmed that The Line, the most emblematic sub-project within NEOM, previously announced as a 170-kilometre linear city designed to house 1.5 million people by 2030, underwent a major revision, with initial delivery now expected to cover only a few kilometres.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nIn 2025, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) made relevant accounting adjustments and reassessed several giga-projects in light of execution challenges, prioritising smaller and more financially sustainable phases. This is not failure. It is internal risk repricing, something natural in programmes of continental scale, but which cannot be ignored.\r\n\u003Ch3>The fiscal environment has tightened\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nThe IMF Article IV 2025 highlights that Saudi Arabia is projecting rising fiscal deficits through to 2026 and has increased debt issuance to finance part of its Vision 2030 investments. The same report shows that the government became the largest US-dollar debt issuer among \u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fen\u002Freal-estate\u002Femerging-real-estate-markets-when-the-money-moves-east-and-south\" target=\"_blank\">emerging markets\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong> in 2024.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nThis does not diminish Saudi ambition, but it reinforces a basic reality: there is no infinite boom without fiscal trade-offs. These nuances rarely appear in remote analyses. For those who, like the \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>, follow the region closely, engage directly with sovereign funds, family offices, developers, and local banks, the reading is different. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nBeing in the Gulf, observing execution on the ground and listening to those who actually make decisions allows one to separate narrative from reality, and that distinction is decisive in understanding what is truly happening.\r\n\u003Ch2>Riyadh: Where the real estate boom became an urban problem\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Sale and rental prices have surged\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nSince 2020, house prices in Riyadh have risen by 81%, while apartment prices increased by 56%. Knight Frank reports show double-digit annual growth in the residential sector and sub-markets with price appreciation exceeding 40% in 2024.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>The rent freeze exposed regulatory risk\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nIn September 2025, the government announced a five-year rent freeze in Riyadh. For any investor, this immediately alters the income thesis: \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fen\u002Freal-estate\u002Ffreezing-rents-quick-fix-or-impending-urban-setback\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cstrong>when the State freezes rents\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>, regulatory risk ceases to be theoretical.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>The part almost no one discusses: Regional competition has changed\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nThere is a critical dimension systematically overlooked in superficial analyses: regional competition and the radical reconfiguration of capital flows. The true engine of the Gulf today is not an isolated country, but the dynamic between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nGlobal capital now favours Abu Dhabi and Dubai for immediate execution. According to the Dubai Land Department, real estate transactions reached AED 761 billion in 2024, a historic record. In 2025, the first half of the year maintained strong momentum, with AED 431 billion in transactions. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the UAE received USD 30.7 billion in FDI in 2023, leading the region. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nData released by the UAE government and corroborated by international rankings indicate that the country attracted more than USD 45 billion in FDI in 2024, consolidating its position as one of the world’s leading destinations for productive capital and further strengthening its leadership in the Middle East. By comparison, Saudi Arabia recorded USD 31.7 billion in FDI in 2024, with net declines in some flows.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOver the past five to six months, however, something even more relevant has occurred, and few traditional analyses have captured it. For decades, the UAE was seen as a global fundraising hub: investors travelled to Abu Dhabi and Dubai to raise capital to be deployed in the United States, Europe or Asia. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nThat dynamic has now reversed. Increasingly, American and European managers are establishing entities in the UAE not only to raise funds, but to invest locally in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. This represents a real inflow of capital, unprecedented in the region’s recent history, marking a structural shift in the geography of global real asset flows.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nThis shift gained further momentum with the recent announcement of a new Mubadala fund designed to attract foreign capital and channel it into domestic investments within the UAE, a symbolic and strategic milestone that reinforces the country’s transition from a capital source to a destination sought by global investors themselves.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAt the same time, what is heard behind closed doors, both in the UAE and in New York and London, is that fundraising in Saudi Arabia has become far more difficult than the market initially expected. The number of managers arriving in Riyadh seeking to raise capital and leaving without a cheque has visibly increased. Many describe genuine frustration with the process.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nThere is a reason for this. The total capital required to finance Vision 2030 is now significantly greater than the amount the PIF itself wishes to allocate directly. As a result, the sovereign fund has intensified its signalling, albeit without formal requirements, that global GPs should invest locally in the Kingdom, participating in Saudi projects as a demonstration of strategic alignment.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nFrom an international perspective, however, a perception is gaining ground: Vision 2030 is far from being delivered in the format originally conceived. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAmong global investors, it has almost become a consensus that the plan will require adjustments, phasing, or reconfiguration. This view does not come from reports, but from closed-door conversations with investors who have been active in the region for decades.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F02_Saudi_Hub_AdobeStock_Body_2025_12_17_16_49_59_1765990199.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Increasingly, American and European managers are establishing entities in the UAE not only to raise funds, but to invest locally in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. (Adobe Stock)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>A mature reading: Saudi Arabia is not “yes or no”, but “how, where, and with whom”\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nSerious investors need three filters:\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>1) Alignment with Vision 2030 and sovereign scrutiny\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nProjects that are well aligned enjoy greater political backing, but are not immune to scope revisions.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>2) Governance and partnership\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nThe country values reciprocity: external capital, external expertise, and local commitment.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>3) Comparison with the UAE\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDubai and Abu Dhabi offer liquidity, regulatory transparency, and more predictable execution. Riyadh offers scale, but also higher regulatory risk, greater state dependence, and volatility in urban policy.\r\n\u003Ch2>The conclusion few dare to write\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nSaudi Arabia is indeed one of the most ambitious urban transformations of the twenty-first century. But reality is far more complex than the Vision 2030 blueprint suggests. Cultural barriers remain significant, particularly when compared with its neighbour, the United Arab Emirates. Riyadh openly seeks to replicate Dubai’s model, but this is not something that can be achieved as quickly as Mohammed bin Salman’s ambition might suggest.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nHere lies a point rarely stated publicly, but widely acknowledged in private conversations: even investors who are deeply optimistic about Saudi Arabia’s potential agree that the country will need decades, not years, to approach the level of institutional maturity, operational efficiency, and business environment seen in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCultural, bureaucratic, and state-driven differences continue to pose a significant challenge when compared not only with the UAE, but even with smaller neighbours such as Oman and Bahrain.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAs a concrete example, a GRI executive with residency in the UAE, a Brazilian passport and an extensive international travel history, without any prior issues, recently had his Saudi visa denied without explanation. It may seem like a minor episode, but it illustrates a deeper issue: how can one conduct global-scale business when access to the country itself is unpredictable? For many investors, this symbolises the gap between Saudi Arabia’s aspirations and its current operational reality.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nWhile distant analyses continue to describe the country through a 2021 lens, the real market has already moved into another phase: less hype, more disciplined capital; less “perfect boom”, more risk-adjusted allocation; less narrative, more on-the-ground insight. I reiterate my belief that the country has every chance of achieving its ambitions, and I will be the first to celebrate such a transformation. I simply believe the process will be more costly and slower than initially anticipated.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nIn the Gulf of 2026, the future will not be shaped by those who decode press releases, but by those who understand capital flows, sovereign dynamics, and the new geography of regional competition. The future belongs to those with a seat at the table where decisions are truly made. And at that table, the illusion of trillions has no place.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n ","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>While Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 is highly ambitious, the execution faces substantial challenges, requiring a more cautious approach from investors.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>The UAE has emerged as a key destination for global capital, shifting the dynamics of investment in the GCC region.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Growing concerns over regulatory risks and slow progress are making investors more cautious about Saudi Arabia’s real estate market.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","The Trillions Myth: Analysing the Saudi Market Narrative","gri institute, gustavo favaron, real estate, gcc, uae, saudi arabia, vision 2030, gulf investment flows, saudi real estate market, regulatory risks, global investors, uae investment, capital flows, middle east real estate, saudi mega projects, investment","GRI Institute’s Global CEO Gustavo Favaron on the challenges facing Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Gulf investment flow shifts, and why investors are becoming more cautious about the country's real estate market due to regulatory risks and slower progress.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_Saudi_Hub_Social_2025_12_17_14_06_27_1765991187.jpg","2025-12-17T13:48:25.000Z","2025-12-17T14:50:23.000Z",{"code":13},{"id":1475,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1476,"subtitle":1477,"content":1478,"summary":978,"takeaways":1479,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1480,"seoKeywords":1481,"seoDescription":1482,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1483,"createdAt":1484,"updatedAt":1485,"language":1486},3028,"O mito dos trilhões: O que a narrativa sobre o mercado saudita não mostra","Gustavo Favaron, Global CEO do GRI Institute, explora os obstáculos enfrentados pela Arábia Saudita na implementação da Visão 2030","De tempos em tempos, circula na mídia especializada uma narrativa pronta sobre o mercado imobiliário saudita: US$ 1,25 trilhão em investimentos, cidades que brotam do deserto, crescimento linear até 2033.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nÉ uma história poderosa para manchetes, mas que se desfaz rapidamente no contato com a realidade de quem, de fato, aloca capital, negocia áreas, estrutura joint ventures e, acima de tudo, compara retornos e riscos entre as praças financeiras do Golfo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO objetivo aqui não é contestar a transformação saudita. Pelo contrário, é tratá-la com a seriedade que merece. E isso exige separar ambição, execução e risco, algo que raramente aparece nas leituras feitas à distância.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>O que é verdadeiro no “boom saudita”, e merece reconhecimento\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>A escala do programa Vision 2030 é real\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nA Arábia Saudita colocou em marcha mais de US$ 1,3 trilhão em projetos urbanos e de infraestrutura ligados à Vision 2030 (número reportado pela Bloomberg em 2024 ao analisar o portfólio consolidado de giga-projects do país). \r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>A política habitacional avançou de maneira tangível\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nSegundo o Annual Report 2024 do Housing Program, publicado no portal oficial da Vision 2030, a taxa de homeownership aumentou para aproximadamente 65% em 2024, aproximando-se da meta de 70% até 2030. Ou seja: existe, sim, uma agenda pública séria e mensurável.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F01_Saudi_Hub_Adobe_Body_2025_12_17_16_49_58_1765990198.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">A Arábia Saudita colocou em andamento mais de 1,3 trilhões de dólares em projetos urbanos e de infraestrutura vinculados à Visão 2030. (Wiki Commons)\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Onde a narrativa otimista para, e a realidade começa\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>NEOM, The Line e o freio da execução\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nEm 2024, a Bloomberg confirmou que o projeto The Line, o mais emblemático subprojeto de NEOM, antes anunciado como uma cidade linear de 170 km para 1,5 milhão de habitantes até 2030, passou por uma revisão profunda, com previsão de entrega inicial reduzida a poucos quilômetros. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm 2025, o PIF realizou ajustes contábeis relevantes e reavaliou vários giga-projects diante do desafio de execução, priorizando trechos menores e mais financeiramente sustentáveis. Não se trata de fracasso. É reprecificação interna de risco, algo natural em programas de escala continental, mas que não podemos deixar de considerar.\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>O ambiente fiscal ficou mais apertado\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nO IMF Article IV 2025 destaca que o país projeta déficits fiscais crescentes até 2026 e aumentou a emissão de dívida para financiar parte dos investimentos Vision 2030. O mesmo relatório mostra que o governo tornou-se o maior emissor de dívida em dólar entre emergentes em 2024.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nIsso não diminui a ambição saudita, mas reforça que não existe boom infinito sem trade-offs fiscais. Essas nuances não aparecem em análises produzidas à distância. Mas para quem, como o \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>, acompanha a região de perto, dialoga diretamente com fundos soberanos, family offices, developers e bancos locais, a leitura é outra.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEstar no Golfo, observar a execução no terreno e ouvir quem realmente toma decisões permite separar narrativa de realidade, e essa diferença é decisiva para entender o que está acontecendo de fato.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Riade: onde o boom imobiliário virou problema urbano\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>Preços de venda e aluguel dispararam\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nDesde 2020, os preços das casas em Riade subiram +81%, enquanto apartamentos avançaram +56%. Relatórios da Knight Frank mostram aumentos anuais de dois dígitos no residencial e submercados com valorização superior a 40% em 2024.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cstrong>O congelamento de aluguéis expôs o risco regulatório\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nEm setembro de 2025, o governo anunciou o congelamento de aluguéis por 5 anos em Riade. Para qualquer investidor, isso muda a tese de renda imediatamente: quando o Estado precisa congelar aluguéis, o risco regulatório deixa de ser teórico.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>A parte que quase ninguém comenta: a competição regional mudou\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nHá uma dimensão crítica, sistematicamente ignorada nas análises superficiais: a competição regional e a radical reconfiguração dos fluxos de capital. O verdadeiro motor do Golfo hoje não é um país isolado, mas a dinâmica entre os Emirados Árabes e a Arábia Saudita.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO capital global, hoje, prefere Abu Dhabi e Dubai para execução imediata. Segundo o Dubai Land Department, as transações imobiliárias atingiram AED 761 bilhões em 2024, recorde histórico.Em 2025, o primeiro semestre manteve ritmo forte, com AED 431 bilhões em transações. Segundo a UNCTAD, os Emirados receberam US$ 30,7 bilhões em FDI em 2023, liderando a região.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDados divulgados pelo governo dos Emirados e por rankings internacionais indicam que o país superou a marca de US$ 45 bilhões em FDI em 2024, consolidando-se como um dos principais destinos globais de capital produtivo e ampliando sua liderança no Oriente Médio. Comparativamente, a Arábia Saudita registrou US$ 31,7 bilhões em FDI em 2024, com queda líquida em alguns fluxos. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNos últimos cinco a seis meses, porém, algo ainda mais relevante ocorreu, e que quase ninguém está capturando nas análises tradicionais. Durante décadas, os Emirados Árabes foram vistos como um polo de fundraising global: investidores viajavam a Abu Dhabi e Dubai para levantar capital que seria aplicado no resto do mundo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAgora, o movimento se inverteu. Vemos cada vez mais gestores americanos, europeus e asiáticos abrindo entidades nos Emirados não apenas para captar, mas para investir localmente em Abu Dhabi e Dubai. É um influxo real de capital, algo inédito na história recente da região, e que marca uma mudança estrutural na geografia dos fluxos de capitais globais de real assets.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEsse shift ganhou ainda mais força com o anúncio recente do novo fundo do Mubadala para captar investimento estrangeiro e assim fomentar investimentos dentro dos Emirados, um marco simbólico e estratégico que reforça que o país deixou de ser apenas fonte de capital para se tornar destino desejado pelo próprio capital global.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAo mesmo tempo, o que se ouve nos bastidores, tanto nos Emirados quanto em Nova York e Londres, é que captar recursos na Arábia Saudita se tornou muito mais difícil.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO número de gestores que chegam a Riade buscando levantar capital e saem sem um cheque aumentou visivelmente. Muitos descrevem frustração real com o processo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nE há uma razão para isso: a demanda total de capital para financiar a Visão 2030 é hoje muito maior do que o próprio PIF gostaria de alocar diretamente. Por isso, o fundo soberano tem intensificado sua sinalização, ainda que não seja uma exigência formal, para que os GPs invistam localmente no Reino, participando de projetos sauditas como demonstração de alinhamento estratégico.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDo lado internacional, entretanto, cresce uma percepção: Vision 2030 está longe de ser entregue no formato originalmente concebido. Entre investidores globais, já se tornou consenso que o plano exigirá ajustes, escalonamentos ou reconfigurações. Essa visão não vem de relatórios, vem das conversas a portas fechadas com quem investe há décadas na região.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F02_Saudi_Hub_AdobeStock_Body_2025_12_17_16_49_59_1765990199.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">Cada vez mais, gestores americanos e europeus estão estabelecendo entidades nos Emirados Árabes Unidos, não apenas para captar fundos, mas também para investir localmente em Abu Dhabi e Dubai. (Adobe Stock)\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>A leitura madura: a Arábia Saudita não é “sim ou não”, é “como, onde e com quem”\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nO investidor sério precisa de três filtros:\r\n\r\n\u003Col>\r\n\t\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Aderência à Vision 2030 e ao escrutínio soberano: \u003C\u002Fstrong>Projetos bem alinhados têm mais proteção política, mas não são imunes a revisões de escopo.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Governança e parceria: \u003C\u002Fstrong>O país valoriza reciprocidade: capital externo + expertise externa + compromisso local.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Comparação com os Emirados:\u003C\u002Fstrong> Dubai\u002FAbu Dhabi oferecem liquidez, transparência regulatória, maturidade e execução mais previsível. Riade oferece escala, mas também risco regulatório, maior dependência estatal e volatilidade de política urbana.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Fol>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>A conclusão que quase ninguém tem coragem de escrever\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nA Arábia Saudita é, sim, uma das transformações urbanas mais ambiciosas do século XXI. Mas certamente a realidade é muito mais complexa do que o plano Vision 2030. Há barreiras culturais ainda muito grandes, incomparáveis quando analisadas junto ao seu vizinho Emirados Árabes.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nRiade tenta copiar Dubai e não esconde isso de ninguém. Mas não é algo que consegue ser feito de modo tão rápido quanto a ambição de Mohamed Bin Salman. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nE aqui entra um ponto raramente dito em público, mas amplamente reconhecido em conversas privadas: mesmo investidores profundamente otimistas em relação ao potencial saudita concordam que o país precisará de décadas, não anos, para se aproximar do patamar de maturidade institucional, eficiência operacional e ambiente de negócios visto em Dubai e Abu Dhabi.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAs diferenças culturais, burocráticas e estatais ainda representam um desafio significativo quando comparadas a vizinhos, especialmente os Emirados Árabes, mas até mesmo com os menores Omã e Bahrein. De minha parte, considero isso normal, já que a mudança que está em curso é estrutural.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA título de exemplo concreto: recentemente, um executivo do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> com residência nos Emirados, passaporte limpo e amplo histórico internacional de viagens, sem nunca ter tido qualquer problema, solicitou o visto para a Arábia Saudita e até agora não recebeu qualquer atualização sobre a aprovação.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nÉ um episódio aparentemente simples, mas que ilustra um problema profundo: como fazer negócios em escala global quando o próprio acesso ao país é imprevisível? Para muitos investidores, isso simboliza a distância entre a aspiração saudita e a realidade operacional do país hoje.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEnquanto análises distantes continuam descrevendo o país com a lente de 2021, o mercado real já se moveu para outra fase: menos hype, mais capital disciplinado; menos “boom perfeito”, mais cálculo de risco-realocação; menos narrativa, mais on-the-ground.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nReitero minha crença de que o país tem tudo para atingir seus sonhos e serei o primeiro a comemorar tal transformação. Apenas entendo que o processo é mais custoso e lento do que se previa inicialmente.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo Golfo de 2026, o futuro não será moldado por quem decifra comunicados de imprensa, mas por quem decifra fluxos de capital, dinâmicas soberanas e a nova geografia da competição regional.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO futuro pertence a quem tem assento, ou ouvidos muito próximos, à mesa onde as decisões são, de fato, tomadas. E nessa mesa, a ilusão dos trilhões não tem vez.","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Embora a Visão 2030 da Arábia Saudita seja extremamente ambiciosa, sua execução enfrenta desafios significativos, o que exige uma abordagem mais cautelosa por parte dos investidores.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Os Emirados Árabes Unidos se destacaram como um destino estratégico para o capital global, alterando as dinâmicas de investimento na região do Conselho de Cooperação do Golfo.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>A crescente preocupação com riscos regulatórios e o avanço lento dos projetos estão tornando os investidores mais cautelosos em relação ao mercado imobiliário da Arábia Saudita.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","O mito dos trilhões: Analisando o mercado da Arábia Saudita","gri institute, real estate, Gustavo Favaron, mercado imobiliário, CCG, Emirados Árabes Unidos, Arábia Saudita, Visão 2030, Riade, Ryad, Dubai, UAE, investimento, mercado imobiliário saudita, capital, investimento global, megaprojetos, NEOM, Vision 2030","Gustavo Favaron, Global CEO do GRI Institute, comenta os desafios da Visão 2030 da Arábia Saudita, as mudanças nos fluxos de investimento no Golfo e a crescente cautela dos investidores devido a riscos regulatórios e progresso lento no mercado imobiliário.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_Saudi_Hub_Social_2025_12_18_11_02_44_1766066564.jpg","2025-12-18T10:35:43.000Z","2025-12-18T11:12:56.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1488},[1489,1491,1493],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1490},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1492},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1494},{"code":23},[1496,1504],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1497},[1498,1500,1502],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1499},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1501},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1503},{"code":23},{"id":93,"label":1253,"translations":1505},[1506,1508,1510],{"label":1253,"slug":1264,"language":1507},{"code":13},{"label":1267,"slug":1268,"language":1509},{"code":18},{"label":1271,"slug":1272,"language":1511},{"code":23},[1513,1516],{"name":882,"enName":882,"ptName":1514,"iso2":1515},"United Arab Emiratesk","AE",{"name":743,"enName":743,"ptName":743,"iso2":1517},"SA",[1519],{"name":1520,"slug":1521,"image":1522,"order":115},"Gustavo Favaron","gustavo-favaron","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FGustavo_Favaron_Profile_Pic_2025_11_19_15_13_31_1763576011.jpg",{"en":1524,"pt-BR":1525},"\u002Freal-estate\u002Fthe-trillions-myth-what-the-narrative-around-the-saudi-market-fails-to-show","\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fthe-trillions-myth-what-the-narrative-around-the-saudi-market-fails-to-show",[1527,1528,1529,1530,1531,1532],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]