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juros",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1859x559_px_[33]_2022_9_23_11_15_17_1663942517.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F600x600_px_[32]_2022_9_23_11_15_17_1663942517.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2022_09_23_at_11.14.48_2022_9_23_11_15_17_1663942517.jpeg","2022-09-23T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: Flávio R. Guarnieri\u002FGRI Institute","#FFFFFF","Ajuste fiscal é essencial para haver queda dos juros em 2023","Solange Srour, economista-chefe do Credit Suisse Brasil, participou de reunião com membros do GRI Club","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F500x500_px_[33]_2022_9_23_11_15_35_1663942535.jpg",935,"2022-09-23T09:50:21.000Z","2024-05-28T16:56:40.000Z",[1465],{"id":1466,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1459,"content":1467,"summary":8,"takeaways":8,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":8,"seoKeywords":8,"seoDescription":8,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1468,"updatedAt":1469,"language":1470},2034,"O \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> realizou um encontro de seus membros com a economista-chefe do \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fcompany-profile\u002Fall\u002Fcredit-suisse-brazil_601\" target=\"_blank\">Credit Suisse Brasil\u003C\u002Fa>, Solange Srour, no último dia 15, na sede do \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fcompany-profile\u002Fall\u002Fbma-barbosa-mussnich-aragao-brazil_373\" target=\"_blank\">BMA Advogados\u003C\u002Fa>, em São Paulo, para tratar das perspectivas macroeconômicas e o que esperar das variáveis que impactam a atividade imobiliária nos próximos 12 a 18 meses. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA moderação do debate foi feita pela sócia da área de Negócios Imobiliários do BMA, \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"7564\">Cristiana Moreira\u003C\u002Fspan>. Segundo Srour, o desempenho do Brasil terá influência do cenário externo, que é complexo e inédito, com três fatores de maior preocupação.\r\n\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>A inflação nos Estados Unidos.\u003C\u002Fstrong> O país respondeu aos pacotes de estímulos realizados desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, mas viu a inflação disparar e alcançar o maior nível das últimas quatro décadas. Para controlar a subida de preços, o FED - banco central americano - está subindo a taxa de juros, medida que é prejudicial ao Brasil por nos tornar menos atrativos para o investimento em relação aos EUA. Na quarta-feira, 21, o FED novamente subiu os juros em 0,75 ponto percentual, para um intervalo entre 3% e 3,25% ao ano. \u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>A recessão na Europa.\u003C\u002Fstrong> O choque de oferta “bateu forte” nos países europeus, e como o continente é um importante parceiro comercial do Brasil, a recessão tende a derrubar os preços das commodities. \u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>O fraco crescimento da China.\u003C\u002Fstrong> O país está “decepcionando” no crescimento, tem que lidar com as restrições do governo para conter a covid-19 e ainda assiste a um estouro da bolha imobiliária, com grandes incorporadoras mega endividadas. Mesmo com um pacote de estímulos no setor de infraestrutura, os resultados estão fracos.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\nNo cenário interno, o Brasil está bem melhor do que se imaginava há cinco meses: a projeção do PIB vem crescendo semana a semana, mais próxima dos 3% - alcançou 2,65% no último Boletim Focus -, e a projeção da inflação vem caindo - foi reduzida para 6%, segundo o mercado financeiro, na décima segunda revisão consecutiva para baixo. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nContudo, para manter um crescimento alto com inflação controlada em 2023, o Brasil vai precisar fazer mais. Este ano, alguns fatores estão auxiliando para um bom desempenho, como o pagamento dos auxílios governamentais, o uso da poupança acumulada durante a pandemia e os descontos em impostos federais, com impacto direto no controle da inflação. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F_FRG0179_[1]_2022_9_23_14_06_26_1663941986.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Solange Srour (à direita) e Cristiana Moreira conduziram debate com membros do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>. Foto: Flávio R. Guarnieri\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>O próximo ciclo político e econômico do país será tema do painel de abertura do Brazil GRI 2022, nos dias 9 e 10 de novembro, em São Paulo. \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevent\u002Freal-estate\u002Fbrazil-gri-2022_3680\" target=\"_blank\">Participe!\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevent\u002Freal-estate\u002Fbrazil-gri-2022_3680\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"Brazil GRI 2022\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fbrazil_banner_2022_8_09_14_06_01_1660053961.jpg\" style=\"border-radius:10px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSegundo Srour, a questão fiscal é essencial para o Brasil continuar crescendo no ano que vem. Neste sentido, duas reformas despontam como urgentes: tributária, com maior arrecadação de impostos para custear o Auxílio Brasil, respeitando a lei de responsabilidade fiscal; e administrativa, para controlar o gasto público com a máquina. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSe houver ajuste fiscal, a taxa de juros real deve cair para a casa dos 4%. Hoje, está acima dos 6%, o que não se traduz em uma situação de equilíbrio para o país. “Se a taxa real estiver muito acima do crescimento do PIB, a dívida cresce e o país quebra”, afirmou a executiva.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm um cenário de reformas e ajuste sensato no teto de gastos, espera-se uma inflação na casa dos 5% em 2023, com a Selic entre 9% e 10% ao ano. Por outro lado, se o teto for revogado e não houver austeridade fiscal, é provável que o juro real suba ainda mais e, neste caso, a leitura é que qualquer que seja o presidente, não terminará o mandato. \r\n\u003Ch3>Brasil é atrativo para o investimento estrangeiro?\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nEmbora haja um compasso de espera pela eleição presidencial para conhecer a política-econômica, o Brasil está no radar porque não tem problemas geopolíticos, possui uma grande variedade de commodities e ainda há o entendimento de que o país começou a subir os juros mais cedo, logo, também sairá antes do ciclo de alta - na quarta-feira (21), o Copom manteve a Selic em 13,75% após doze altas seguidas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOutro fator que coloca o país no mapa dos investidores é a situação complicada das outras nações latino-americanas, com maior destaque para a crise econômica e social na Argentina. Mudanças recentes nos governos do Chile e da Colômbia também não agradaram. “O governo brasileiro terá que ser equilibrado, ortodoxo”. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Flanding\u002Freal-estate\u002Fnewsletter-re-brazil_3700.html?load_lang=pt-br\" target=\"_blank\">Cadastre-se na newsletter de mercado imobiliário do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> e receba 1x por semana as principais notícias do setor no Brasil\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Confira outros tópicos da reunião\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\u003Cu>Juros nos Estados Unidos\u003C\u002Fu>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSe o FED subir os juros para 5% ao ano, entende-se que será difícil reduzir os juros aqui no Brasil, pois isso reduz nossa atratividade. Mas se o FED parar nos 4%, o Brasil consegue baixar os juros, contanto que o risco fiscal diminua. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cu>Inflação setorial\u003C\u002Fu>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO custo da mão de obra não deve desacelerar, pois o desemprego está em 9%, um percentual bom e que deve perdurar. Neste aspecto, portanto, não haverá fôlego. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nJá a inflação de materiais e insumos tem diminuído lá fora e isso pode ocorrer também no Brasil, dependendo da taxa de câmbio. Mesmo assim, não deve ser uma queda muito expressiva, a menos que haja uma enorme recessão global, o que não é o cenário-base. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cu>Reforma tributária\u003C\u002Fu>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOs candidatos, até agora, não têm propostas claras neste sentido, mas é provável que haja taxação de lucros e dividendos. Já o imposto sobre grandes fortunas está longe de acontecer, pois é muito contraproducente - deu errado em todos os países que o fizeram, pois o capital vai embora. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDeve haver finalmente uma unificação de impostos - governo federal e governos estaduais terão que sentar para se alinhar. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cu>Equilíbrio no próximo governo\u003C\u002Fu>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO congresso é o fiel da balança do país. Se a coisa degringolar, é impeachment. Tudo indica que será um congresso centrista, e nenhum dos dois favoritos à presidência terá uma bancada predominante. Para conseguir governar e aprovar projetos, qualquer um dos presidenciáveis terá que ir para o centro. \r\n\u003Ch3>Conheça mais sobre o \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Ciframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.youtube.com\u002Fembed\u002FANS9RHnvw9E\" width=\"640\">\u003C\u002Fiframe>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"color:#777777\">Por \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#777777\">Henrique Cisman\u003C\u002Fspan> \u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n ","2022-09-23T09:57:38.000Z","2022-09-23T11:49:46.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1472},[1473,1475,1477],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1474},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1476},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1478},{"code":23},[1480],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1481},[1482,1484,1486],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1483},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1485},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1487},{"code":23},[1489],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1490},"BR",[],{"pt-BR":1493},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fteto-de-gastos-e-ajuste-fiscal-sao-essenciais-para-haver-queda-dos-juros_1880",[1495,1496,1497,1498,1499,1500],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]