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ir?",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_[3]_2023_9_29_11_40_40_1695998440.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_[3]_2023_9_29_11_40_40_1695998440.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FTop_[3]_2023_9_29_11_40_40_1695998440.jpg","2023-09-29T00:00:00.000Z","Reprodução\u002FFreepik","#555555","Reportagem","Mercado imobiliário brasileiro, Taxa de juros, Copom, GRI Club, Ana Paula Vescovi, Economia, Corte juros, Santander, Selic, Investimentos, Bolsa, Fundos imobiliários","“Cenário externo e reformas moldarão o futuro econômico no país”, afirma Ana Paula Vescovi, economista-chefe do Santander","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSocial_[5]_2023_9_29_11_40_40_1695998440.jpg",1329,"2023-09-29T10:43:39.000Z","2025-12-11T16:21:35.000Z",[1466],{"id":1467,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1460,"content":1468,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":978,"seoKeywords":978,"seoDescription":978,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1469,"updatedAt":1470,"language":1471},2212,"\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Em um cenário em que o mercado imobiliário brasileiro está atento aos impactos dos cortes na taxa de juros promovidos pelo Copom neste segundo semestre, o \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> traz a análise de Ana Paula Vescovi, economista-chefe do Santander, sobre as perspectivas econômicas e os fatores-chave que irão influenciar o crescimento do país nos próximos anos.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A executiva foi a convidada especial em um encontro promovido pelo Women in Real Estate Brazil Committee, nos escritórios da \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"4220\">CGM Advogados\u003C\u002Fspan>, em São Paulo, onde participou de um debate junto a líderes de empresas do setor. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Dado o início da redução da taxa de juros, a economista traz uma questão-chave: "Até onde o corte pode ir?”. Ela aponta que a primeira baliza está relacionada ao ritmo de baixa das taxas de juros nos Estados Unidos, enquanto a segunda diz respeito ao cumprimento das novas metas fiscais prometido pelo governo brasileiro. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">“Daqui para frente, o cenário externo vai ficar muito relevante para nós. Nossa aposta é que o FED regulou a taxa em 5,5% e não vai subir mais. Mas se a inflação nos EUA não melhorar, é possível que subam um pouco em novembro”.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"Club Meeting Perspectivas macroeconômicas e previsão de queda de taxa de juros\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_09_29_at_11.05.59_[2]_2023_9_29_14_06_34_1695996394.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Encontro foi uma iniciativa do Women in Real Estate Brazil Committee (Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Vescovi descreve um cenário inflacionário “pós-choque” que atinge as principais economias mundiais como resultado direto dos impactos remanescentes da pandemia da Covid-19 e dos desdobramentos da guerra entre Rússia e Ucrânia, que desorganizaram mercados e cadeias logísticas em todo o globo.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Enquanto o mundo está enfrentando um processo de normalização, a executiva também aponta que o Brasil está em uma posição favorável por ter sido um dos primeiros países a iniciar e acelerar o processo de aperto monetário como uma estratégia para conter o surto inflacionário. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>“Se o Brasil quisesse realmente enfrentar essa inflação, teria que ter colocado a Selic a 16% ou 17%. E a decisão foi não subir tanto (13,75%), mas ficar alto por mais tempo para trazer a inflação para a meta, numa convergência mais longa para não prejudicar a economia e ter uma equação mais equilibrada possível entre custos e benefícios”, complementa.\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA projeção da economista-chefe do Santander é que a taxa Selic chegue a 9,5% até o final de 2024. Em agosto, o Banco Central efetuou o primeiro corte em três anos, reduzindo-a em 0,50 ponto porcentual, de 13,75% para 13,25%. Recentemente, o segundo corte também ocorreu na mesma proporção, levando a taxa a 12,75%.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">No contexto de investimentos a curto prazo, Vescovi observa que a melhoria na Bolsa e nos fundos imobiliários diminui o potencial de retorno elevado que os investimentos proporcionaram durante os períodos de turbulência econômica, quando aqueles que ousaram investir podiam ser recompensados com retornos substanciais. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">No entanto, o desfecho desse cenário ainda depende significativamente das condições externas, pois os investidores continuarão a observar o desempenho de mercados considerados mais seguros antes de decidir alocar seus recursos no Brasil. Neste sentido, é importante acompanhar o comportamento do FED, pois a elevação dos juros nos EUA tende a limitar o espaço de cortes a serem realizados pelo Banco Central brasileiro.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Outro aspecto destacado é a poupança disponível. “O Brasil tem um nível de poupança agregado, complementado com recursos do exterior, que é pequeno. E nós temos uma demanda por poupança porque precisamos de capital para investir. A taxa de juros a longo prazo equilibra essas duas coisas”.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Entretanto, a executiva enxerga que as movimentações recentes do governo federal vão na contramão desse equilíbrio, reduzindo os recursos disponíveis para investimento.  “Nesse momento, a despoupança do governo brasileiro é de 6%-7% do PIB. Temos uma poupança agregada que está em 14%-15%, mas que poderia ser 20-22% do PIB se não fossem pelos gastos. Esse quadro piorou após o governo abandonar a regra do teto,, aumentar gastos nas transferências, criar a PEC de Transição, tudo isso trouxe 3% a 3,5% do PIB de piora no quadro fiscal”.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">Alternativa\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Diante das restrições, ela propõe uma solução que pode fortalecer a economia brasileira a longo prazo e melhorar o ambiente de negócios para investidores estrangeiros, especialmente em áreas relacionadas à descarbonização e à transição energética, que têm potencial de movimentar até R$100 bilhões.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cstrong>“O mundo está demandando commodities e pagando alto por elas. Nós somos grandes exportadores e temos uma imensa oportunidade. Pode ser um game changer, dado que apenas 30% da nossa capacidade de minerais estão mapeadas”.\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Mas a principal saída, na opinião da economista, reside em ajuste fiscal e reformas com objetivo de melhorar a eficiência da economia. “Estamos começando a ter uma possibilidade mais forte de ter uma reforma tributária no Brasil. Podemos continuar melhorando os marcos regulatórios, fortalecendo agências reguladoras e fazer uma reforma administrativa, não apenas para conter gastos, mas para melhorar a produtividade dentro dos serviços públicos”.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"Club Meeting Perspectivas macroeconômicas e previsão de queda de taxa de juros\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FMMF_5234_2023_9_29_14_00_37_1695996037.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Ana Paula Vescovi foi a convidada especial do debate (Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">No entanto, Vescovi não vê essas mudanças ocorrendo no governo atual, pois entende que as prioridades em sua agenda visam primordialmente aumentar a arrecadação.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">“Não acho que teremos déficit fiscal zerado no ano que vem, nem o ajuste fiscal de 2% do PIB, que foram as metas anunciadas até 2026. Mas se não entregar, haverá frustração no mercado.”\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Dada a clara influência dos eventos nos Estados Unidos, os participantes do debate levantaram questões sobre até que ponto os acontecimentos no país norte-americano afetarão o Brasil. A especialista enfatiza que, independentemente do desenrolar dos acontecimentos nos EUA, o Banco Central não tem a intenção de elevar novamente a taxa de juros.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">Reforma Tributária\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Importante tema levantado na discussão, os players presentes se disseram preocupados com um possível aumento da carga tributária, particularmente para setores produtivos como o mercado imobiliário. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Vescovi rejeita a hipótese e enfatiza que a reforma é um marco importante para o país, mas alerta para a complexidade da transição. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">“Sair de um sistema tributário complexo para um mais simples não será tarefa fácil, e alguns desafios precisarão ser enfrentados ao longo do caminho. A reforma do IVA Federal, que unificará PIS-Cofins e abrirá espaço para os impostos subnacionais, é um passo importante nesse processo. A expectativa é que, em três anos, o Brasil tenha uma visão mais clara dos problemas remanescentes”.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Vescovi ainda afirma que a reforma trará equilíbrio de poder entre as empresas e as autoridades fiscais na questão de determinar se um crédito tributário é válido ou não por meio da tecnologia. “Já temos pronto o processo que vai calcular e creditar automaticamente. Isso significa que os contribuintes passarão a pagar o imposto sobre o valor adicionado de acordo com a legislação específica de seus setores”.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"Club Meeting Perspectivas macroeconômicas e previsão de queda de taxa de juros\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_09_29_at_11.05.59_2023_9_29_14_06_36_1695996396.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">(Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Houve questionamentos também sobre a escolha da adoção de um IVA dual, que combina um IVA federal com a consolidação dos impostos estaduais - ICMS e ISS.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A executiva traz dois exemplos de escolhas de diferentes modelos tributários: os Estados Unidos adotam o modelo de "sales tax", que tributa apenas o consumo, variando de acordo com os estados e criando uma competição fiscal. Em contrapartida, o modelo europeu do IVA, que tributa a produção e permite o rastreamento dos impostos ao longo da cadeia de valor, é outra alternativa.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A economista ainda enfatizou que o Brasil é uma federação atípica, com três níveis de governo e a aceitação da tributação municipal. Portanto, a solução encontrada, o IVA dual, representa um equilíbrio entre as complexidades da estrutura federativa e a necessidade de simplificar o sistema tributário. O objetivo é usar a mesma base para tributar o valor adicionado, o que pode trazer benefícios significativos.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">Crédito imobiliário\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Outra questão levantada diz respeito ao crédito imobiliário, que segundo algumas incorporadoras está escasso. A economista-chefe do Santander acredita que é hora de mudar o sistema de crédito direcionado para a diversificação de fontes de investimento, para além do FGTS e poupança.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">“Falta [funding] porque o crédito é direcionado do FGTS, e recentemente tivemos a maior retirada de dinheiro da poupança. Acredito que isso mudou a cultura do investidor brasileiro. Ainda que as taxas estejam muito similares, há um mercado muito mais profundo dentro do mercado de capitais que vai ser procurado cada vez mais. As opções são muito maiores”, finaliza.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cstrong>O cenário macroeconômico volta a ser pauta no Brazil GRI 2023. Saiba mais!\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevent\u002Freal-estate\u002Fbrazil-gri-2023_4010?utm_source=hub&utm_medium=txt&utm_campaign=BRARE-hub-pos-club-meeting-perspectivas-macro-santander-juros&utm_id=BRARE-hub-pos-club-meeting-perspectivas-macro-santander-juros\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"BRAZIL GRI\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fbrasilgri_banner_[2]_2023_9_29_14_23_55_1695997435.jpeg\" style=\"border-radius:10px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n","2023-09-29T10:43:48.000Z","2025-12-11T16:21:41.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1473},[1474,1476,1478],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1475},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1477},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1479},{"code":23},[1481],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1482},[1483,1485,1487],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1484},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1486},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1488},{"code":23},[1490],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1491},"BR",[1493],{"name":1494,"slug":1495,"image":1496,"order":115},"Júlia Ribeiro","julia-ribeiro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002F5046453828702023104_2025_12_08_09_41_19_1765197679.jpg",{"pt-BR":1498},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Ftaxa-de-juros-no-brasil-ate-onde-corte-deve-ir",[1500,1501,1502,1503,1504,1505],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]