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real",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_Funding_Residencial_2026_7_08_11_45_32_1783521932.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_Funding_Residencial_2026_7_08_11_45_32_1783521932.webp","2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z","GRI Institute",841,"2026-07-08T11:45:32.000Z","2026-07-08T14:45:36.000Z",[1460],{"id":1461,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1462,"subtitle":1463,"content":1464,"summary":978,"takeaways":1465,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1466,"seoKeywords":1467,"seoDescription":1468,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1469,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},4929,"Risco de faltar crédito para a expansão projetada em 2027 é real, aponta pesquisa do GRI Institute ","1 em cada 5 executivos entende que o modelo atual do MCMV está sufocando o crédito de mercado, enquanto 25% se preocupam com o fôlego no próximo ano","Levantamento realizado pelo \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> na 11ª edição do GRI Residencial Brasil, em São Paulo, com mais de 150 incorporadoras, construtoras, gestoras de fundos e investidores institucionais presentes, aponta para uma preocupação com a disponibilidade de crédito para sustentar o crescimento projetado em 2027, principalmente no âmbito do programa Minha Casa, Minha Vida.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUm em cada quatro respondentes entende que a falta de fôlego financeiro é um risco real, enquanto 19% afirmam que a forte dependência do FGTS e da poupança para viabilizar o MCMV já está sufocando o crédito de mercado. Combinadas, essas duas visões somam 44% de lideranças que veem uma fragilidade estrutural no programa. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNa outra ponta, metade dos executivos assinala que essa fragilidade é apenas parcial, por entenderem que o mercado de capitais já está substituindo o crédito direcionado, mitigando o risco de escassez.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Fbrazil-gri-2026_5220\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cstrong>Aprofunde a discussão sobre o mercado residencial no Brazil GRI 2026. Saiba mais.\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\r\n\u003Ch2>Expansão agressiva\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nEm fevereiro, o então ministro das Cidades, \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"36213\">Jader Filho\u003C\u002Fspan>, afirmou que, se confirmada a reeleição do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nas eleições de outubro, a projeção é contratar 1,5 milhão de novas unidades em 2027. Para efeito de comparação, entre o início de 2023 e o final de 2025, foram contratadas 2,1 milhões de unidades. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"O governo federal vem expandindo agressivamente as metas do MCMV, elevando subsídios, teto do valor dos imóveis e faixas de renda. As incorporadoras focadas no segmento visam produzir e lançar cada vez mais unidades. O plano de crescimento dessas empresas para os próximos anos é robusto porque a demanda habitacional na base da pirâmide é gigantesca", pontua \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"28353\">Alexandre Fernandes\u003C\u002Fspan>, sócio e head de real estate Brazil do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO problema é que o motor que financia essa expansão está perdendo força em seus dois pilares: na poupança, que tem sofrido ano após ano com mais saques do que depósitos (veja na tabela abaixo); e no FGTS, que apesar de ter arrecadação saudável, opera no limite pela combinação de metas crescentes e usos paralelos, como o saque-aniversário.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FGra_fico_saques_sbpe_2026_7_08_17_40_09_1783532409.png\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Ch2>O crescimento de outras fontes é suficiente?\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nPara compensar o sufocamento das linhas tradicionais, o mercado de capitais tende a desempenhar um papel cada vez mais relevante na estrutura do crédito imobiliário brasileiro.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSegundo a Abecip, a Letra de Crédito Imobiliário é o instrumento mais relevante, subindo de 17% para 19% de participação na composição dos financiamentos imobiliários ao longo do último ano. Os Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários também avançaram de 9% para 10%, e apenas a Letra Imobiliária Garantida recuou (de 5% para 4% do total). \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nJá os fundos de investimento imobiliário que financiam o setor mantiveram participação estável em 11%. Vale apontar que, no levantamento do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> supramencionado, 63% dos executivos concordaram que o desenvolvimento residencial pode se tornar uma classe de ativos relevante para os FIIs - embora 23% também acreditem que esse apelo seja temporário e dure apenas enquanto os juros continuarem elevados. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOs outros 40% afirmam que fundos residenciais de desenvolvimento são "a única saída" para capturar alfa, isto é, rendimentos maiores do que o IFIX ou o CDI, por exemplo. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Imóveis prontos em regiões prime - especialmente escritórios, shoppings e galpões - já estão muito consolidados e são muito disputados. Para um fundo entregar um ganho que realmente se destaque, ele precisa assumir o risco da construção. O lucro de incorporar, construir e vender unidades residenciais traz uma margem de ganho de capital que o aluguel tradicional não consegue alcançar", explica Fernandes. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm resumo, boa parte dos incorporadores e gestores de fundos entendem que, para se destacar no cenário atual, o fundo não pode ser apenas um proprietário de imóveis; ele precisa se posicionar como um desenvolvedor, trocando a segurança do aluguel linear pelo alto retorno do ciclo de obras residencial, uma visão que, na prática, pode ampliar os recursos disponíveis para o setor em 2027. ","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Um em cada quatro respondentes entende que a falta de fôlego financeiro para sustentar o crescimento em 2027 é um risco real, enquanto 19% afirmam que a forte dependência do FGTS e da poupança para viabilizar o MCMV já está sufocando o crédito de mercado.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Em fevereiro, o então ministro das Cidades, Jader Filho, afirmou que, se confirmada a reeleição do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nas eleições de outubro, a projeção é contratar 1,5 milhão de novas unidades em 2027. Para efeito de comparação, entre o início de 2023 e o final de 2025, foram contratadas 2,1 milhões de unidades.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Para compensar o sufocamento das linhas tradicionais, o mercado de capitais tende a desempenhar um papel cada vez mais relevante na estrutura do crédito imobiliário brasileiro. Em 2025, LIG e CRI cresceram em participação, enquanto os FIIs mantiveram o patamar. \u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","Risco de faltar crédito para a expansão em 2027 é real","crédito imobiliário, desenvolvimento residencial, habitação, minha casa minha vida","Em levantamento do GRI Institute realizado no GRI Residencial Brasil 2026, 1 em cada 5 executivos entende que o modelo atual do MCMV está sufocando o crédito de mercado, enquanto 25% se preocupam com o fôlego no próximo ano","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FHub_Social_Funding_Residencial_2026_7_08_11_52_29_1783522349.jpg","2026-07-08T11:46:50.000Z","2026-07-08T14:44:59.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482,1490],{"id":47,"label":1297,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1297,"slug":1308,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1311,"slug":1312,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1315,"slug":1316,"language":1489},{"code":23},{"id":136,"label":1051,"translations":1491},[1492,1494,1496],{"label":1051,"slug":1062,"language":1493},{"code":13},{"label":1065,"slug":1066,"language":1495},{"code":18},{"label":1069,"slug":1070,"language":1497},{"code":23},[1499],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1500},"BR",[1502],{"name":1503,"slug":1504,"image":1505,"order":115},"Henrique Cisman","henrique-cisman","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FHenrique_Marcal_Cisman_GRI_Institute_Profile_PIC_2025_11_04_11_31_12_1762266672.jpg",{"pt-BR":1507},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Frisco-de-faltar-credito-para-a-expansao-projetada-em-2027-e-real",[1509,1510,1511,1512,1513,1514],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]