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residencial",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_2023_7_14_11_55_03_1689346503.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_2023_7_14_11_55_03_1689346503.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_07_14_at_11.52.38_2023_7_14_11_55_03_1689346503.jpeg","2023-07-14T00:00:00.000Z","Credito: GRI Institute\u002FGuilherme Andrade","#FFFFFF","Artigo ","juros\r\nmercado residencial \r\nresidencial \r\nreal estate\r\nmercado imobiliário \r\nfunding \r\npanorama\r\nfundos ","Residencial: provável queda de juros gera otimismo","Lançamentos, vendas e novas tendências devem movimentar o mercado ","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSocial_[4]_2023_7_14_11_55_03_1689346503.jpg",849,"2023-07-14T11:55:03.000Z","2025-12-11T16:15:45.000Z",[1467],{"id":1468,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1469,"subtitle":1470,"content":1471,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":978,"seoKeywords":978,"seoDescription":978,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1472,"updatedAt":1473,"language":1474},2173,"Provável queda de juros gera otimismo no mercado residencial","Lançamentos e vendas devem reagir; disponibilidade e custo do funding tendem a melhorar ","Passados seis meses de 2023, uma retomada da confiança no setor imobiliário começa a surgir no horizonte e os investidores aquecem as engrenagens para aproveitar um cenário mais favorável, especialmente do ponto de vista da taxa de juros, que deve começar a cair a partir de agosto. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOs executivos presentes no GRI Residencial Brasil 2023 debateram com otimismo a expectativa de o país terminar o ano com um crescimento da economia na casa de 2%, conforme já apontam algumas instituições financeiras, ante 0,7% há alguns meses, e uma taxa de juros na casa dos 10% no final do ano que vem.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO GRI Residencial Brasil foi realizado na primeira quinzena de junho com a participação de grandes incorporadoras, gestoras de fundos imobiliários e investidores institucionais, além de especialistas das mais diversas áreas relacionadas ao desenvolvimento imobiliário habitacional.\r\n\u003Ch3>Panorama \u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nO mercado de crédito imobiliário apresentou leve recuo até maio, em linha com as previsões da Abecip, que indicavam um início de ano com redução de 13% no crédito com poupança. Nos primeiros cinco meses, R$63,4 bilhões foram financiados, representando uma queda de 9% em comparação com o mesmo período do ano anterior. No acumulado dos últimos 12 meses, o montante chega a R$ 177,7 bilhões.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fgrafico_1_2023_7_14_15_03_30_1689347010.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\"> Source: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm relação ao crédito imobiliário, um dos pontos de atenção levantados por bancos e incorporadoras é a captação negativa do SBPE, que tem sofrido maiores volumes de saques do que depósitos mês após mês. Essa diminuição sugere que o mercado pode enfrentar dificuldades para atender à demanda por financiamentos imobiliários.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nApesar disso, o financiamento com recursos da poupança ainda está em um patamar alto. O número de unidades financiadas nos últimos 12 meses foi de 639,3 mil. O cenário atual indica que se atingiu um platô, após recordes observados em 2021 e 2022. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNota-se menor demanda na produção imobiliária, diante do freio nos lançamentos observado no ano, até aqui. De janeiro a março, houve queda de 30,2% frente ao mesmo período de 2022, mas as vendas retraíram mais timidamente (9%).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCom a diferença entre o que foi lançado e o que foi vendido, há uma redução no estoque de nova oferta disponível. Se nada fosse lançado daqui em diante, a oferta seria totalmente escoada em 10,8 meses, segundo a Brain Inteligência Estratégica.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Durante o período 21\u002F22, o volume lançado foi muito maior que o vendido, e agora a gente tem uma inversão. Uma redução dos lançamentos, mas uma manutenção nas vendas. Como resultado, o estoque disponível está caindo”, explica o sócio da Brain, \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"1684\">Marcos Kahtalian\u003C\u002Fspan>, que apresentou uma série de dados atualizados do mercado residencial na abertura do encontro. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo que diz respeito à intenção de compra das famílias, o mercado começa a enxergar uma retomada no apetite, que encontrou seu ponto mais baixo em novembro do ano passado, logo após as eleições, em 31%. No auge, antes da pandemia, a intenção de compra chegou a 43%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fgrafico_2_2023_7_14_15_03_30_1689347010.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F> \u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Source: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSegundo os executivos, deve haver uma janela mais positiva no segundo semestre para lançar produtos engavetados e buscar melhores margens, tanto pela subida dos preços dos imóveis como pela estabilidade nos custos de materiais e equipamentos da construção.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nComo parte da estratégia para ganhar preço, algumas empresas apostam na personalização dos imóveis, visando atender as necessidades do consumidor pós-pandemia, que passa mais tempo em casa e prefere ter todas as soluções de acabamento em um único ponto de contato. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara as incorporadoras, o movimento pode significar fontes adicionais de receita. A estratégia tem sido utilizada em empreendimentos das mais variadas faixas de renda. “Ao invés de entregar o esqueleto, oferecemos um grande leque de opções para o cliente personalizar o apartamento, em parceria com diversos fornecedores”, explica um executivo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO presidente de outra grande incorporadora destaca a oferta de serviços como outro atrativo essencial no pós-pandemia: “Quando inserido em um mercado complexo, como São Paulo, o cliente começa a preferir esse tipo de produto. A pandemia trouxe uma valorização maior do tempo livre e de estar com a família, e isso justifica essa procura por áreas de lazer e consumo dentro do imóvel”.\r\n\u003Ch3>Desafios no curto prazo\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nA captação de recursos é um dos principais desafios para as incorporadoras, já que os bancos estão mais seletivos na concessão de crédito, priorizando projetos considerados mais seguros. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm razão do alto patamar da Selic, as empresas também enfrentam dificuldades para vender os imóveis, dado o alto custo do financiamento para as famílias, bem como a maior atratividade da renda fixa quando considerada a compra do imóvel como produto de investimento. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Vemos hoje nossos parceiros recebendo negativa de bancos que estão priorizando balanços enormes, crédito triple A e projetos óbvios. A pessoa física no final da cadeia sempre foi um grande atrativo para eles. Em um momento com pouco dinheiro para emprestar, os bancos preferem a ponta”,  analisa um executivo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fgrafico_3_2023_7_14_15_03_31_1689347011.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Source: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Custo da construção\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nOutro ponto importante para a retomada é a expectativa de estabilização do INCC, trazendo confiança para o setor. O indicador descolou da inflação durante a pandemia: enquanto o IPCA se aproximava dos dois dígitos, o INCC atingiu 22%. Segundo executivos presentes, alguns insumos subiram muito acima do INCC, como o cimento, que aumentou em 50%, cobre e alumínio (60%), e o aço (100%).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Isso aconteceu porque a cadeia foi esmagada pela crise [2015-2016] e teve uma retomada muito rápida. De dezembro do ano passado para cá, nossas obras não têm apresentado descolamento e o INCC está acompanhando a inflação”, testemunha o CEO de uma importante construtora. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDe acordo com outro executivo, nos últimos anos, diante do aumento do custo da construção e a maior dificuldade de repassá-lo nos imóveis econômicos, houve uma procura maior por praças nas quais é possível vender as unidades por valores mais altos, bem como um maior protagonismo de projetos de médio e alto padrão nos lançamentos. \r\n\u003Ch3>Fundos imobiliários\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nAssim como observado nas linhas tradicionais de crédito, o volume de emissões e captações diminuiu no mercado de capitais. Até maio, a soma dos Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários (CRI) emitidos chegou a R$9 bilhões, frente a R$42 bilhões no mesmo período em 2022, uma queda de quase 80%. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAs captações de fundos imobiliários residenciais também foram bem tímidas até o momento, com um volume total na casa dos R$300 milhões. No geral, considerando todas as categorias de FIIs, o montante atinge R$2,7 bilhões (dados até maio). \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Se somar com os R$9 bilhões de CRI, são R$11,7 bilhões, mas frente ao SBPE continua sendo uma fração muito pequena”, afirma um executivo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSe os bancos estão mais criteriosos na concessão de crédito imobiliário, também é verdade que o mercado de capitais pede retornos maiores para financiar os projetos, dificultando a tomada do recurso para empresas pequenas e médias. “Um dividend yield maior significa que será cobrado da incorporadora CDI + 4\u002F5% ao ano ou IPCA + dois dígitos”, afirma um executivo. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO líder de uma gestora de FIIs afirma que está mirando em projetos com 20% de TIR (taxa interna de retorno).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO diretor de uma grande incorporadora resume o cenário: “Hoje, as dez maiores empresas do setor acessam um volume desproporcional do SBPE e do FGTS, que é o grande financiador do Minha Casa, Minha Vida. A alternativa que resta para as incorporadoras pequenas e médias é o CRI”. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nMesmo no contexto descrito, a contratação de dívida via mercado de capitais pode ser a melhor alternativa para conseguir desenvolver novos projetos. “Para a incorporadora, alocar equity próprio no projeto significa deixar [de adquirir] três ou quatro terrenos que ela poderia pagar a fim de girar o negócio”, ilustra um participante. \r\n\u003Ch3>Habitação popular\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nAs discussões em torno do Minha Casa, Minha Vida apontaram para a importância dos ajustes no valor-teto dos imóveis em cada faixa de renda, bem como aumento do subsídio nas faixas 1 e 2 - medidas que foram aprovadas pelo Conselho Curador do FGTS dias após a realização do GRI Residencial Brasil 2023.  \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fgrafico_4_2023_7_14_15_03_31_1689347011.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F> \u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Source: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA conferência organizada pelo \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> contou com a participação da vice-presidente de Habitação da Caixa Econômica Federal, Inês Magalhães. Além das mudanças já mencionadas, a executiva comentou algumas das ações priorizadas pelo banco estatal para a habitação social em 2023. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm relação ao orçamento de R$ 9,5 bilhões definido pelo governo federal para o programa, a meta é colocar no mercado 100 mil unidades em parceria com prefeituras e construtoras. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUm dos principais critérios para o financiamento será a localização dos projetos: “Uma novidade é que vamos olhar primeiro a questão do terreno para melhorar a localização e diminuir o tamanho dos empreendimentos. Estamos trabalhando com 350 unidades por empreendimento, que precisam necessariamente estar inseridas na malha urbana, com infraestrutura  urbana (água e esgoto) e perto de serviços, também (farmácias, padarias etc) em um perímetro de até 1 km.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOutro pilar destacado como prioridade é a digitalização do banco, especialmente na concessão de crédito imobiliário: “Temos um piloto bem consolidado do processo de contratação digital. Hoje, no app de habitação já é possível fazer isso como um último passo, e queremos escalar para fazer a conexão direta com as incorporadoras na geração de crédito”. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA executiva não entrou em detalhes sobre medidas para eliminar ou reduzir o Pro Soluto  - financiamento feito diretamente pela incorporadora para cobrir o gap da avaliação do imóvel feita pelo banco - nem sobre o desenho de um programa de locação social. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>O mercado imobiliário residencial está na pauta do Brazil GRI 2023\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevent\u002Freal-estate\u002Fbrazil-gri-2023_4010?utm_source=hub&utm_medium=txt&utm_campaign=REClubBR23-event-hub&utm_id=REClubBR23-event-hub\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"Brazil GRI 2023\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fbrasilgri_banner_2023_7_14_15_15_57_1689347757.jpeg\" style=\"border-radius:10px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>","2023-07-14T11:55:10.000Z","2025-12-11T16:15:17.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1476},[1477,1479,1481],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1478},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1480},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1482},{"code":23},[1484],{"id":47,"label":1297,"translations":1485},[1486,1488,1490],{"label":1297,"slug":1308,"language":1487},{"code":13},{"label":1311,"slug":1312,"language":1489},{"code":18},{"label":1315,"slug":1316,"language":1491},{"code":23},[1493],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1494},"BR",[1496],{"name":1497,"slug":1498,"image":1499,"order":115},"Júlia Ribeiro","julia-ribeiro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002F5046453828702023104_2025_12_08_09_41_19_1765197679.jpg",{"pt-BR":1501},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fprovavel-queda-de-juros-gera-otimismo-mercado-residencial",[1503,1504,1505,1506,1507,1508],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]