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estate",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1859x559_px_Top_[19]_2025_12_17_11_22_48_1765981368.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1920x1080_px_Cover_[19]_2025_12_17_11_22_48_1765981368.webp","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z","GRI Institute",1404,"2025-12-17T11:22:48.000Z","2025-12-17T12:05:19.000Z",[1460],{"id":1461,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1462,"subtitle":1463,"content":1464,"summary":978,"takeaways":1465,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1466,"seoKeywords":1467,"seoDescription":1468,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1469,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},3024,"Pesquisa do GRI Institute avalia os principais segmentos do real estate brasileiro para 2026","Cenário macroeconômico, incertezas fiscais e novas tecnologias remodelam os setores residencial, corporativo, comercial e logístico","Uma análise exclusiva do \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>, fundamentada nos insights dos líderes presentes no \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fsetor-imobiliario-se-reinventa-diante-de-pressoes-macroeconomicas\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cstrong>Brazil GRI 2025\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>, explora as principais dinâmicas e desafios esperados pelo mercado imobiliário brasileiro em 2026. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO estudo aborda as diferentes perspectivas de setores como residencial, escritórios, logística, shoppings e hotéis, com destaque para as preocupações relacionadas à taxa de juros, ao financiamento e às estratégias de adaptação frente às condições econômicas.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Residencial: Baixa renda avança com MCMV, alto padrão segue cauteloso\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nO principal fator de preocupação dos \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fbusca-por-financiamento-e-inova-o-ditam-os-rumos-do-mercado-residencial\" target=\"_blank\">incorporadores residenciais\u003C\u002Fa> é o custo do capital, com 59% dos entrevistados destacando a taxa de juros como o maior desafio para 2026 - superando disponibilidade de funding (16%), baixa demanda (14%) e entraves burocráticos (11%).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEssas pressões têm impactado diretamente as estratégias de oferta, criando duas dinâmicas distintas no mercado. No segmento de baixa renda, o otimismo é prevalente: 63% dos respondentes acreditam que o volume de lançamentos aumentará em 2026, enquanto 34% projetam a manutenção dos níveis atuais.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPor outro lado, o mercado de \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fo-mercado-de-imoveis-de-alto-padrao-corre-o-risco-de-entrar-em-uma-bolha\" target=\"_blank\">alto padrão\u003C\u002Fa> adota uma postura mais cautelosa: 52% dos entrevistados consideram que o volume de lançamentos será mantido, enquanto 45% preveem uma redução da oferta.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo programa Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV), embora o ceticismo seja predominante quanto à capacidade dos subsídios em cobrir o aumento dos custos de construção, 27% dos entrevistados se mostram otimistas, acreditando que a escala da produção poderá compensar a inflação dos insumos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nQuanto aos riscos para 2026, a maior ameaça identificada é de natureza econômica. Para 45% dos executivos, o principal risco está na erosão da capacidade de pagamento das famílias devido à inflação, impactando diretamente a demanda. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO risco operacional reflete a preocupação de 27%, que leva em consideração a capacidade da Caixa Econômica Federal de processar o volume de \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fo-reset-do-funding-imobiliario-no-brasil\" target=\"_blank\">financiamentos\u003C\u002Fa>, enquanto o risco fiscal, associado à redução de subsídios, é destacado por 18% dos participantes.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nApesar desses desafios, as novas regras do programa MCMV têm redesenhado a competitividade no mercado: 50% acredita que as incorporadoras de médio padrão irão redirecionar parte de suas estratégias para o MCMV, uma vez que as novas faixas tornam o programa mais atrativo do que o segmento tradicional.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Multifamily luta para competir com renda fixa\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nO setor de \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fresidencial-para-renda-no-brasil-rumo-a-consolidacao-do-mercado\" target=\"_blank\">residencial para renda\u003C\u002Fa> enfrenta um grande desafio financeiro. Para 55% dos respondentes, o principal obstáculo no Brasil é o rendimento insuficiente para compensar o risco e o custo de capital.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDiante das taxas de juros elevadas, os projetos de multifamily continuam a enfrentar dificuldades para competir com a rentabilidade de outros ativos, como a renda fixa, já que o retorno atual do aluguel não oferece o prêmio de risco esperado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm segundo plano, 36% dos participantes apontaram a falta de linhas de crédito de longo prazo e taxas adequadas como o principal entrave, enquanto a liquidez no mercado secundário foi uma preocupação para apenas 9%.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Investidores buscam valorização fora do eixo tradicional corporativo\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nContrariando a visão predominante de que a Faria Lima é a única região de destaque em São Paulo para empreendimentos corporativos, a pesquisa revela que 42% dos investidores acreditam que a maior valorização de locação nos próximos 12 meses virá de ativos situados em \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Ftransbordamento-da-demanda-redesenha-o-mapa-corporativo-de-sao-paulo\" target=\"_blank\">polos alternativos ou em expansão\u003C\u002Fa>, como a região de Pinheiros.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEmbora os edifícios Triple A em áreas consolidadas ainda sejam a preferência de 33% dos respondentes, edifícios de retrofit na Avenida Paulista (17%) e coworkings (8%) também emergem como novas possibilidades.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nQuando o foco é a proteção de valor, 80% dos participantes consideram que a maior ameaça é a incerteza econômica e as eleições de 2026, enquanto o aumento dos custos operacionais (OpEx) preocupa 20%..\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Expansão logística depende da demanda local\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nNo \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fde-norte-a-sul-avanco-dos-galpoes-logisticos-segue-firme-pelo-brasil\" target=\"_blank\">setor industrial e logístico\u003C\u002Fa>, a estratégia para viabilizar novos projetos de alto padrão é conservadora e focada na mitigação de riscos. Para 60% dos respondentes, a melhor abordagem é garantir grandes inquilinos com contratos de longo prazo no modelo built-to-suit, evitando a exposição ao risco especulativo da obra.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAlternativas financeiras ou de gestão de ativos são vistas com menor prioridade: 20% dos consultados consideram o aumento da participação de FIIs na estrutura de capital como a solução ideal, mesma proporção daqueles que priorizam o uso de landbank já adquirido.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nQuanto à expansão geográfica para fora do Sudeste, a maioria (59%) aponta que o fator mais crítico para essa descentralização é o aumento da demanda local que justifique o investimento. Questões estruturais, como melhorias na infraestrutura (24%), disponibilidade de mão de obra (12%) e incentivos fiscais (6%), são vistas como prioridades secundárias.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPor fim, o segmento de last mile, ou logística urbana, continua sendo uma das principais apostas dos investidores. Para 56%, o last mile é a maior prioridade de alocação de capital, devido ao contínuo aumento do e-commerce.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo entanto, há um alerta quanto à viabilidade financeira: 22% dos respondentes afirmam que não priorizam esse nicho devido aos altos custos de aquisição de terrenos e construção, que tornam o retorno inviável. \r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Shoppings inovam em empreendimentos de uso misto\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nNo segmento de \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Flideres-tracam-os-caminhos-para-o-futuro-dos-shoppings-no-brasil\" target=\"_blank\">shopping centers\u003C\u002Fa>, o desafio geracional emerge como uma das principais preocupações para garantir a longevidade dos ativos. Quando questionados sobre como atrair a geração Z, a maioria dos respondentes (58%) aponta que o caminho é deixar de priorizar apenas a transação de compra e passar a oferecer experiências imersivas e sociais.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAlém disso, 42% identificam que a batalha pela atenção desse público é digital, exigindo que a jornada do consumidor comece e termine em aplicativos e redes sociais, integrando o ambiente físico ao virtual de forma fluida.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nQuanto às estratégias de crescimento financeiro para os próximos cinco anos, o mercado sinaliza uma mudança estrutural no modelo de negócios, afastando-se da dependência exclusiva do aluguel de lojas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUma maioria significativa de 78% dos participantes aposta no desenvolvimento de empreendimentos de uso misto - incorporando residenciais, escritórios, hotéis e\u002Fou serviços de saúde no terreno do shopping - como o principal motor de nova receita. \r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Hotéis de luxo lideram performance operacional\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nPara a maioria expressiva dos respondentes (67%), a principal forma de financiar novos \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fsetor-hoteleiro-vive-novo-momento-no-brasil\" target=\"_blank\">hotéis no Brasil\u003C\u002Fa> continua sendo o capital próprio (equity), evidenciando a escassez ou a inviabilidade de linhas de crédito e de parceiros financeiros tradicionais.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOs investidores institucionais e os FIIs são apontados como fontes secundárias, com apenas 22% das menções, seguidos pelo modelo de sale & leaseback, citado por 11% - revelando que o setor hoteleiro continua a se financiar "com as próprias pernas", o que limita a velocidade de expansão.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEm relação à performance operacional, a aposta é unânime: 100% dos consultados apontam os hotéis urbanos de luxo e boutique como os que terão o melhor desempenho de receita por quarto disponível (RevPAR) em 2026.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nIsso reflete a percepção de que, em tempos de economia incerta, o consumidor de alta renda é o mais resiliente, protegendo o segmento de luxo contra a volatilidade que pode afetar o turismo de massa ou corporativo padrão.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDiante desse cenário, as branded residences consolidam-se como uma peça-chave: 80% dos participantes consideram esse modelo essencial para viabilizar o desenvolvimento de hotéis de luxo no atual contexto de juros elevados.","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>No mercado residencial, o segmento de baixa renda é otimista em relação ao programa Minha Casa Minha Vida, enquanto o alto padrão adota uma postura mais cautelosa.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>No setor de multifamily, a rentabilidade insuficiente para competir com ativos como a renda fixa é um obstáculo significativo.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>No segmento corporativo, investidores estão direcionando sua atenção para polos alternativos, com crescente interesse em edifícios Triple A e retrofits.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>A expansão logística para fora do Sudeste está atrelada à demanda local, com o "last mile" sendo uma prioridade estratégica para os investidores. \u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Nos shoppings centers, a inovação e diversificação de receita vêm com empreendimentos de uso misto.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Hotéis de luxo lideram em termos de performance operacional, financiados majoritariamente por capital próprio.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","GRI Institute avalia os segmentos do real estate brasileiro","gri institute, real estate, mercado imobiliário, pesquisa, estudo, macroeconômico, eleição, residencial, corporativo, minha casa minha vida, alto padrão, escritórios, shopping, varejo, hotéis, galpões logísticos, uso misto, empreendimento, investimentos","Pesquisa do GRI Institute, baseada em insights do Brazil GRI, avalia os principais segmentos do real estate brasileiro. Cenário macroeconômico, incertezas fiscais e novas tecnologias remodelam os setores residencial, corporativo, comercial e logístico.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F500x500_px_Social_[25]_2025_12_17_12_04_26_1765983866.jpg","2025-12-17T11:22:56.000Z","2026-01-20T13:13:13.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482,1490,1498,1506,1514,1522,1530,1538],{"id":47,"label":1297,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1297,"slug":1308,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1311,"slug":1312,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1315,"slug":1316,"language":1489},{"code":23},{"id":25,"label":1275,"translations":1491},[1492,1494,1496],{"label":1275,"slug":1286,"language":1493},{"code":13},{"label":1289,"slug":1290,"language":1495},{"code":18},{"label":1293,"slug":1294,"language":1497},{"code":23},{"id":5,"label":1319,"translations":1499},[1500,1502,1504],{"label":1319,"slug":1330,"language":1501},{"code":13},{"label":1319,"slug":1330,"language":1503},{"code":18},{"label":1319,"slug":1330,"language":1505},{"code":23},{"id":49,"label":1209,"translations":1507},[1508,1510,1512],{"label":1209,"slug":1220,"language":1509},{"code":13},{"label":1223,"slug":1224,"language":1511},{"code":18},{"label":1227,"slug":1228,"language":1513},{"code":23},{"id":85,"label":1187,"translations":1515},[1516,1518,1520],{"label":1187,"slug":1198,"language":1517},{"code":13},{"label":1201,"slug":1202,"language":1519},{"code":18},{"label":1205,"slug":1206,"language":1521},{"code":23},{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1523},[1524,1526,1528],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1525},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1527},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1529},{"code":23},{"id":93,"label":1253,"translations":1531},[1532,1534,1536],{"label":1253,"slug":1264,"language":1533},{"code":13},{"label":1267,"slug":1268,"language":1535},{"code":18},{"label":1271,"slug":1272,"language":1537},{"code":23},{"id":136,"label":1051,"translations":1539},[1540,1542,1544],{"label":1051,"slug":1062,"language":1541},{"code":13},{"label":1065,"slug":1066,"language":1543},{"code":18},{"label":1069,"slug":1070,"language":1545},{"code":23},[1547],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1548},"BR",[1550],{"name":1551,"slug":1552,"image":1553,"order":115},"Isabella Toledo","isabella-toledo","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FIsabella_Toledo_GRI_Institue_Profile_Pic_2025_11_04_10_40_03_1762263603.jpg",{"pt-BR":1555},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fpesquisa-do-gri-institute-avalia-os-principais-segmentos-do-real-estate",[1557,1558,1559,1560,1561,1562],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]