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imobiliários",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1859x559_px_Top_03_2026_2_20_14_53_23_1771610003.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1920x1080_px_Cover_03_2026_2_20_14_53_23_1771610003.webp","2026-02-20T00:00:00.000Z","RioMar | Vinicius Lubambo",538,"2026-02-20T14:01:57.000Z","2026-02-20T14:55:29.000Z",[1460],{"id":1461,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1462,"subtitle":1463,"content":1464,"summary":978,"takeaways":1465,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1466,"seoKeywords":1467,"seoDescription":1468,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1469,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},3280,"Novo ciclo do varejo: reprecificação de ativos, uso misto e fundos imobiliários","Baixa vacância, recorde de vendas e descontos no preço de tela indicam oportunidades ","O faturamento dos shopping centers brasileiros cresceu 1,2% em 2025 e alcançou R$ 200,9 bilhões, segundo a ABRASCE (Associação Brasileira de Shopping Centers).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO número, divulgado neste mês, consolida um ciclo de recuperação que transformou o varejo físico em uma das classes de ativos mais resilientes do mercado imobiliário nacional - ainda que, paradoxalmente, seja uma das mais subvalorizadas nos portfólios institucionais.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA combinação de ocupação técnica plena, inadimplência baixa e desconto relevante nos fundos imobiliários do setor configura um momento raro: fundamentos operacionais robustos coexistindo com preços de tela ainda deprimidos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO segmento, que responde por parcela significativa da capitalização total dos FIIs listados na B3, foi ofuscado pela ascensão de ativos logísticos, data centers e multfamily (residencial para renda).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA análise do \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong> identifica que esse cenário não encontra respaldo nos dados. Ao contrário: os indicadores operacionais e financeiros do varejo físico sinalizam uma janela de reprecificação que merece atenção dos investidores.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Vacância saudável\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nA taxa média de ocupação dos shopping centers encerrou 2025 em 95,4%, patamar classificado pelo presidente da ABRASCE, Glauco Humai, como vacância técnica, ou seja, aquela que corresponde a espaços em processo de rotação entre lojistas - e não a áreas estruturalmente desocupadas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEsse indicador carrega implicações diretas para a dinâmica de preços. Quando a ocupação atinge o limiar técnico, o poder de negociação se desloca do locatário para o locador, pressionando aluguéis para cima nos ciclos de renovação contratual.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOs operadores de shopping centers passam a exercer maior seletividade na curadoria do tenant mix, privilegiando operações com maior ticket médio, maior capacidade de gerar fluxo e maior aderência ao conceito experiencial que define o novo ciclo do varejo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO ticket médio nos shoppings subiu 4% em 2025, atingindo R$ 126. A elevação do gasto por visita compensa parcialmente o leve recuo de 1% no fluxo de visitantes. O dado revela uma mudança qualitativa no comportamento do consumidor: menos visitas, porém mais intencionais, com maior permanência e maior conversão.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara os proprietários e gestores de ativos, essa equação reforça a tese de que o shopping center brasileiro completou sua transição de centro de compras para plataforma de convivência, serviços e entretenimento - um ativo que monetiza tempo de permanência, não apenas tráfego.\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>FIIs de shopping centers seguem negociando abaixo do valor patrimonial\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nOs fundos imobiliários de shopping centers encerraram 2025 com valorização na casa dos 20%, em linha com o crescimento do IFIX, segundo levantamento da Empiricus.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAinda assim, a maioria dos FIIs negociam com desconto acima dos 10% sobre o valor patrimonial (P\u002FVP), conforme apuração realizada pelo \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA divergência entre a performance operacional dos ativos e a precificação de mercado dos fundos configura uma assimetria clássica de ciclo de juros.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCom a taxa Selic no patamar de 15%, o custo de oportunidade elevado comprime as cotas dos FIIs de tijolo, independentemente da qualidade dos ativos subjacentes.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO Boletim Focus projeta corte da taxa básica de juros para 12,25% no final de 2026 - uma redução que pode funcionar como catalisador de reprecificação para ativos de renda imobiliária.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA lógica é direta: à medida que a taxa recua, o spread de rendimento dos FIIs de shopping se torna relativamente mais atrativo, o que tende a fechar o desconto do preço frente ao valor patrimonial.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nTambém vale pontuar que o setor registrou a menor taxa de inadimplência da história em 2025 (4,3%), segundo a ABRASCE, o que reforça a previsibilidade dos fluxos de caixa distribuídos aos cotistas e reduz o prêmio de risco exigido pelo mercado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara investidores institucionais e family offices que acompanham o segmento por meio das discussões promovidas pelo \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>, o cenário sugere que o momento atual oferece uma rara combinação de yield operacional saudável com potencial de ganho de capital via fechamento de desconto.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>Expansão e novos formatos: o avanço do mixed-use\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nA ABRASCE projeta a inauguração de 11 novos shopping centers em 2026, em um mercado que já opera próximo da ocupação plena.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA expectativa de crescimento de 1,4% no faturamento do setor, que levaria a receita total a R$ 203,7 bilhões, segundo a associação, embute tanto a maturação dos empreendimentos existentes quanto a contribuição dos novos projetos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO vetor mais relevante de expansão, contudo, não está nos formatos tradicionais. Projetos mixed-use com componente de varejo ganham tração acelerada, integrando residencial, comercial, serviços e retail em desenvolvimentos que buscam replicar a vitalidade urbana dentro de um perímetro planejado. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nExemplos de destaque incluem o icônico Cidade Jardim, em São Paulo; RioMar Recife, na capital pernambucana, e o Parque Global, também na capital paulista, que salta aos olhos pela grandiosidade do projeto. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA visão do \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong> é de que o varejo físico deixa de ser uma tese defensiva e passa a representar uma oportunidade alfa em um ciclo de queda de juros.","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>O mercado de shopping centers no Brasil viu um crescimento de 1,2% no faturamento em 2025, atingindo R$ 200,9 bilhões, com uma ocupação média de 95,4% e uma vacância saudável, o que favorece o aumento de aluguéis e a reprecificação dos ativos.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>Apesar de uma valorização de 20% dos fundos imobiliários de shoppings, a maioria continua sendo negociada com desconto superior a 10% sobre o valor patrimonial, com um potencial de reprecificação impulsionado pela previsão de redução da taxa Selic até 2026.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>O setor está em expansão com 11 novos projetos previstos para 2026, com destaque para o crescimento de empreendimetnos mixed-use, transformando o varejo físico em uma oportunidade alfa em um ciclo de queda de juros.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","Novo ciclo do varejo: reprecificação, uso misto e FIIs","gri institute, real estate, mercado imobiliário, shopping center, varejo, shoppings, ocupação, vacância, fundos imobiliários, FIIs, mixed-use, uso misto, queda de juros, taxa de juros, selic, empreendimento, incorporadora, comercial, ativos, reprecificação","O mercado de shopping centers no Brasil cresceu 1,2% em 2025, com ocupação e vacância saudáveis, enquanto os FIIs do setor continuam negociados com desconto. A expansão do mixed-use promete fortalecer ainda mais o segmento em um cenário de queda de juros.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F500x500_px_Social_03_2026_2_20_14_53_36_1771610016.jpg","2026-02-20T14:06:07.000Z","2026-02-20T14:53:36.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482,1490,1498],{"id":5,"label":1319,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1319,"slug":1330,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1319,"slug":1330,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1319,"slug":1330,"language":1489},{"code":23},{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1491},[1492,1494,1496],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1493},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1495},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1497},{"code":23},{"id":136,"label":1051,"translations":1499},[1500,1502,1504],{"label":1051,"slug":1062,"language":1501},{"code":13},{"label":1065,"slug":1066,"language":1503},{"code":18},{"label":1069,"slug":1070,"language":1505},{"code":23},[1507],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1508},"BR",[1510],{"name":1511,"slug":1512,"image":1513,"order":115},"Henrique Cisman","henrique-cisman","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FHenrique_Marcal_Cisman_GRI_Institute_Profile_PIC_2025_11_04_11_31_12_1762266672.jpg",{"pt-BR":1515},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fnovo-ciclo-do-varejo-reprecificacao-de-ativos-uso-misto-e-fundos-imobiliarios",[1517,1518,1519,1520,1521,1522],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]