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juros",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_[13]_2023_10_12_10_44_55_1697118295.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_[13]_2023_10_12_10_44_55_1697118295.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FTop_[13]_2023_10_12_10_44_55_1697118295.jpg","2023-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: Envato Elements\u002Fluislimajr","#FFFFFF","Artigo "," Brasil\r\narcabouço fiscal\r\ntaxa de juros\r\ndéficit primário\r\nregra fiscal\r\ngastos públicos\r\ntesouro nacional\r\npolítica monetária\r\ncenário internacional\r\nGRI Club\r\nreal estate","Exclusivo: Ceron e Galípolo debatem meta fiscal e juros.","Cenário internacional pode impactar ritmo da Selic, alertam autoridades","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSocial_[26]_2023_10_12_10_44_55_1697118295.jpg",954,"2023-10-12T10:44:55.000Z","2025-12-11T16:24:22.000Z",[1467],{"id":1468,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1461,"content":1469,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":978,"seoKeywords":978,"seoDescription":978,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},2230,"Diante de intensos debates sobre o futuro econômico do Brasil, com a aprovação do novo arcabouço fiscal e a perspectiva de contínuas mudanças na taxa de juros, o \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> promove encontros estratégicos com as principais autoridades do setor público e representantes do setor privado para trazer luz sobre os movimentos do país.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNas últimas semanas, foram realizadas reuniões com Rogério Ceron, Secretário do Tesouro Nacional do Ministério da Fazenda, e Gabriel Galípolo, Diretor de Política Monetária do Banco Central do Brasil. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo encontro com Rogério Ceron, a pauta foi a nova regra fiscal que substitui o teto de gastos - vigente desde o governo Temer, que limitava as despesas do ano seguinte ao orçamento do ano presente corrigido pela inflação. Ceron defende que o novo arcabouço é mais crível e adequado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Não adianta criar uma regra que é completamente incompatível com a nossa realidade institucional e com a nossa sociedade. Acho que é importante distinguir que o arcabouço continua com o limite de despesa, variando de 0,6% a 2,5%, sendo esses 2,5% iguais ao crescimento econômico médio do Brasil durante os últimos 20 anos. Então, ainda que a despesa chegue no limite, o tamanho do Estado fica mais ou menos igual", destaca Ceron.\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_10_12_at_10.51.27_2023_10_12_13_51_34_1697118694.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\">Rogério Ceron em reunião com membros do \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\" style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\"> (Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\" style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo entanto, ele reconhece os desafios que o Brasil enfrenta atualmente, e que será difícil atingir a meta de zerar o déficit primário em 2024, mas ressalta que as medidas para chegar lá envolvem limitações nos gastos e reajustes dos servidores públicos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>“O importante da meta fiscal zero é que a gente está tentando virar esse transatlântico [déficit fiscal]. Esse processo sinaliza um caminho mais estável”.\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCeron também fala sobre a implementação dessa meta e as resistências internas enfrentadas para estipular um déficit fiscal zero no ano que vem: “Foi um desafio muito grande. Havia um cenário de 2% de déficit contratado e mais desejo de ampliação de gastos num contexto político muito difícil para trazer uma pauta de ajuste fiscal, com a sociedade muito dividida, em que as pessoas não querem tomar medidas que possam gerar ônus do ponto de vista social”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nQuando questionado sobre um possível aumento da tributação no país, o Secretário do Tesouro Nacional argumenta que não se esperam grandes mudanças na carga, e destaca a crescente atividade econômica como um ponto positivo. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEle ainda ressalta a oportunidade que o Brasil tem na transição energética global, o que pode permitir ao país se reinserir nas cadeias globais de forma significativa. “Temos uma janela importante. Às vezes a história nos dá uma oportunidade e não podemos jogá-la fora”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nApesar dos cuidados, Ceron aborda também a importância do investimento público - especialmente para alavancar a infraestrutura social, como habitação, e acredita que estados e municípios têm um papel importante nesse processo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDentro desse cenário, ele ressalta a importância do investimento em educação e o efeito disso no longo prazo, mas alerta para a ineficiência histórica dos investimentos no setor, que já tem um orçamento previsto até 40% maior para o Fundeb até 2026. “É muito dinheiro, que bem utilizado muda o país, mas foi aprovado sem nenhuma condicionante. Não tem meta. Precisamos ter capital e recursos humanos para poder seguir em frente”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAlém disso, ele menciona a rimplantação de programas essenciais, como o "Desenrola", que deve ajudar o país a sair do ciclo de dívidas agravado pela pandemia, e pede calma para retomada econômica mais robusta.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“As questões estruturais levam tempo. A reforma tributária mesmo, estamos tentando segurar ao máximo [os pedidos de exceção] para sair como algo equilibrado. A ideia é passar pelo Senado em outubro e estamos criando condições para isso. Tem uma série de medidas que estão sendo tomadas na área de crédito e segurança do investidores”, ressalta. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo que diz respeito aos precatórios, Ceron enfatiza a importância de evitar que a dívida cresça descontroladamente. Ele defende a proposta de pagar 65% como despesa primária e 35% como juro da despesa financeira como um meio-termo para evitar um problema fiscal maior no futuro.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FIMG_0788_2023_10_12_13_54_10_1697118850.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Encontro aconteceu na sede da HSI em São Paulo (Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Financiamento imobiliário será afetado?\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nEm um dos debates, foi abordado o financiamento no setor imobiliário que, em grande parte, depende fortemente de recursos direcionados. Muitos players se perguntam como é possível criar uma indústria de securitização e mercado de capitais mais eficaz no país, em vez de depender exclusivamente dos recursos do FGTS e da poupança.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO ponto de atenção é um possível esgotamento especialmente do FGTS devido a uma ação judicial que contesta o indexador de remuneração dos cotistas, mas Ceron acredita que a gravidade do tema está bem esclarecida no STF e que não há riscos significativos de uma mudança drástica. “Não posso adiantar muito, mas posso assegurar que não vai ter nenhum tipo de grande alteração neste sentido”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEle também destaca os esforços do governo em impulsionar o programa "Minha Casa, Minha Vida", com a ideia de disponibilizar entre R$10-20 bilhões em subsídios para a habitação social anualmente.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUm executivo enfatiza a necessidade de direcionar maior atenção à classe média, e salienta que é fundamental proteger mais esse grupo, uma vez que é o mais impactado por tributações no Brasil - e responde por uma parcela importante no mercado imobiliário.\r\n\u003Ch3>Taxa de Juros\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nA taxa de juros tem ocupado uma posição central nas conversas sobre o destino da economia brasileira. Executivos dizem que, em muitas ocasiões, ela é convenientemente apontada por governos como um alvo para justificar problemas internos, especialmente quando atinge patamares elevados, como ocorreu no Brasil, quando alcançou 13,75%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara Ceron, a análise do cenário internacional também tornou-se uma parte fundamental dessa equação. Ele destaca a importância de se manter um olhar atento sobre a taxa de juros dos Estados Unidos. “A depender de como fica lá fora, acho difícil baixarmos além de 10% aqui”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Se a taxa americana permanecer estável ou até mesmo subir, isso poderá limitar a queda das taxas de juros brasileiras. O ciclo de redução que estávamos seguindo tem sido fundamental para impulsionar o setor imobiliário", completa.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nGabriel Galípolo, Diretor de Política Monetária do Banco Central do Brasil, que participou do Fórum GRI de Fundos Imobiliários na primeira semana de outubro, enfatiza a necessidade de abordar com “humildade” os juros no cenário atual.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_10_12_at_10.55.47_2023_10_12_13_55_55_1697118955.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Gabriel Galípolo foi convidado especial de painel no Fórum GRI de Fundos Imobiliários (Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEle observa que questões geopolíticas e os impactos contínuos da pandemia da Covid-19 desencadearam desarranjos nas cadeias produtivas globais, resultando em aumento de custos. "Os Estados Unidos estão pagando mais em termos de juros, e o aumento de suas taxas prejudica a queda das taxas de juros no Brasil", alerta.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nGalipolo também destaca a demanda crescente por financiamento público nos Estados Unidos (US$200 bi\u002Fmês), que leva o Tesouro americano a emitir mais títulos, exercendo pressão para elevar as taxas de juros internas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo entanto, ele reconhece a posição relativamente privilegiada do Brasil diante do impacto do aumento dos Fed Funds, com o início do ciclo de redução da Selic, do cenário de crescimento econômico e das reservas internacionais robustas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“O que a gente escuta lá fora é que fizemos a lição de casa e estamos performando melhor do que nossos pares, mas que o diferencial de juros está estreitando".\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara ele, diante da robustez da atividade econômica nos Estados Unidos, pode ser necessário que o Federal Reserve opte por manter as taxas de juros em patamares elevados por um período prolongado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_10_12_at_11.03.28_2023_10_12_14_03_44_1697119424.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Executivos acompanham fala de Galípolo durante Fórum GRI de Fundos Imobiliários (Foto: Mario Miranda\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCeron ainda traz outros elementos - como a crise imobiliária da China e do mercado Europeu - como outros fatores de alerta, e reafirma que qualquer que seja o motivo, se as metas fiscais do Brasil não forem cumpridas, o novo arcabouço prevê o acionamento de  gatilhos para limitação de gastos públicos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Não está no radar um cenário de tanto estresse assim. Talvez tenha algum estresse na China, mas eu acho que a gente está bem posicionado”, encerra.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cstrong>O cenário macroeconômico volta a ser pauta no Brazil GRI 2023. Saiba mais!\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevent\u002Freal-estate\u002Fbrazil-gri-2023_4010?utm_source=hub&utm_medium=txt&utm_campaign=BRGRI23-hub&utm_id=BRGRI23-hub\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"Brazil GRI 2023\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fbrasilgri_banner_[2]_2023_10_12_14_06_21_1697119581.jpeg\" style=\"border-radius:10px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n ","2023-10-12T10:50:01.000Z","2025-12-11T16:24:35.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1489},{"code":23},[1491],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1492},"BR",[1494],{"name":1495,"slug":1496,"image":1497,"order":115},"Júlia Ribeiro","julia-ribeiro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002F5046453828702023104_2025_12_08_09_41_19_1765197679.jpg",{"pt-BR":1499},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fexclusivo-ceron-e-galipolo-falam-sobre-meta-fiscal-e-taxa-de-juros",[1501,1502,1503,1504,1505,1506],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]