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resultado",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FTop_2021_10_19_08_17_31_1634642251.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_2021_10_19_08_36_38_1634643398.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_2021_10_19_08_17_31_1634642251.jpg","2021-10-19T00:00:00.000Z","Crédito: Flávio R. Guarnieri \u002F GRI Institute","#FFFFFF","Eleições 2022: situação da economia será decisiva","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSocial_2021_10_19_08_36_38_1634643398.jpg",951,"2021-10-19T08:17:31.000Z","2024-05-28T07:19:11.000Z",[1463],{"id":1464,"newsId":870,"languageId":25,"title":1449,"subtitle":1465,"content":1466,"summary":8,"takeaways":8,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":8,"seoKeywords":8,"seoDescription":8,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1467,"updatedAt":1468,"language":1469},1807,"Questões econômicas são prioritárias para eleitores; chances de uma terceira via são baixas","\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">O painel de abertura do segundo dia do \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Brazil GRI 2021\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"> colocou em pauta as eleições presidenciais do ano que vem, que desde abril estão no foco dos noticiários após o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) anular as condenações do ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva no âmbito da Operação Lava-Jato, trazendo-o de volta ao páreo. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">A apresentação do painel foi conduzida pelo diretor da Eurasia Group no Brasil, Silvio Cascione, que destacou a surpresa até do próprio Partido dos Trabalhadores com a anulação da condenação de Lula e a consequente reaquisição dos direitos políticos. “Até então, Lula era carta fora do baralho mesmo para as pessoas mais próximas”, garantiu o especialista. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">A leitura da Eurasia é que, por ora, o ex-presidente petista aparece como favorito para vencer a disputa em 2022, embora o atual presidente Jair Bolsonaro siga competitivo para chegar ao segundo turno. Neste contexto, são pequenas as chances de um nome da terceira via avançar, pelo menos até o momento. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Segundo Cascione, alguns fatores podem ser relevantes para a ascensão de um nome alternativo, como o possível agravamento da crise hídrica e o descontrole inflacionário no decorrer do próximo ano, o que é improvável. Hoje, a companhia - que é líder mundial em consultoria política - avalia em 20% a possibilidade de um nome da terceira via avançar para o segundo turno. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Riscos superestimados\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">De acordo com a Eurasia, os riscos de quebra institucional e descontrole da inflação no curto prazo - frequentemente aventados - estão sendo superestimados, isto é, as tensões não devem passar de retórica e a tendência é que os preços se acomodem já nos próximos meses.   \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Se isso ocorrer, voltam a crescer as chances de que Bolsonaro seja reeleito, já que a principal preocupação dos eleitores na atualidade é a recuperação econômica, que se traduz tanto na retomada do emprego e da renda quanto na desaceleração dos preços, como da energia elétrica e dos combustíveis. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Uma pesquisa apresentada no painel mostra que as questões econômicas são prioritárias para 44% dos respondentes, frente a 24% que indicaram a pandemia e os aspectos sanitários. A inversão das posições ocorreu em agosto, quando a popularidade do atual presidente começou a se deteriorar em razão dos expressivos aumentos de preços. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Outrora muito relevante no debate político, o combate à corrupção hoje está empatado com a solução da pobreza\u002Fdesigualdade no ranking de prioridades da população, e não deve, portanto, ser tão relevante para o resultado das eleições. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Disputa será acirrada\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Embora Bolsonaro tenha perdido apoiadores nos últimos três meses, o nível de aprovação atual - na casa dos 30% - é considerado importante para colocá-lo no segundo turno com chances de vitória. “É um patamar invejado pela maioria dos presidentes de países vizinhos”, pontuou Cascione. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color:null\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F_FRG0844_2021_10_19_11_31_13_1634643073.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Executivos fizeram perguntas sobre cenários possíveis nas próximas eleições. Foto: Flávio R. Guarnieri\u002FGRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Com sua base leal mantida, assim como conseguiram Lula e PT em meio a todos os escândalos de corrupção descobertos pela Lava-Jato, Bolsonaro precisa angariar novamente o apoio perdido recentemente para que a eleição seja considerada competitiva. Hoje, o cenário sugere mudança. Se a aprovação chegar a 50%, há grandes chances de que seja reeleito, segundo a Eurasia.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">O mais provável é que as condições econômicas melhorem, mas a aprovação do atual presidente deve ficar em níveis que sugerem uma disputa acirrada em outubro do ano que vem. “Se Lula vencer na urna, será o próximo presidente. Não há qualquer coisa diferente disso”, afirmou Cascione sobre o possível risco de uma não aceitação de eventual derrota de Bolsonaro com o voto eletrônico. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">O que muda com Lula?\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Caso seja vencedor, Lula provavelmente adote tom moderado em relação a reformas políticas, mas já acena que afrouxará as políticas de austeridade fiscal, com tentativas de furar o teto de gastos. Segundo Cascione, será preciso construir maioria no Congresso para negociar parâmetros fiscais, o que é visto como tarefa difícil, além da pressão do mercado. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cp \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-style:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-variant:normal\">\u003Cspan style=\"text-decoration:none\">\u003Cspan style=\"vertical-align:baseline\">\u003Cspan style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\">Já as reformas realizadas recentemente, como a autonomia do Banco Central e a privatização da Eletrobrás, vieram para ficar, de acordo com a Eurasia. A polarização política continuará sendo realidade, principalmente se houver frustrações já no curto prazo com o desempenho econômico.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"color:#6b6b6b\">Por \u003Cstrong>Henrique Cisman\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n","2021-10-19T08:18:12.000Z","2021-10-19T08:42:50.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1471},[1472,1474,1476],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1473},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1475},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1477},{"code":23},[1479],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1480},[1481,1483,1485],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1482},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1484},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1486},{"code":23},[1488],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1489},"BR",[],{"pt-BR":1492},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Feleicoes-2022-situacao-da-economia-sera-decisiva-para-resultado_1649",[1494,1495,1496,1497,1498,1499],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]