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Brasil",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Floteamento_top_2021_8_18_15_42_19_1629312139.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Floteamentos_cover_2021_8_18_15_42_19_1629312139.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Floteamento_slider_2021_8_18_15_42_19_1629312139.jpg","2021-08-18T00:00:00.000Z","Crédito: Flávio R. Guarnieri \u002F GRI Institute","#FFFFFF","Economista-chefe da XP destaca bons fundamentos na retomada ","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Floteamento_social_2021_8_18_15_42_19_1629312139.jpg",1091,"2021-08-18T15:42:19.000Z","2024-05-28T12:53:22.000Z",[1464],{"id":1465,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1466,"content":1467,"summary":8,"takeaways":8,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":8,"seoKeywords":8,"seoDescription":8,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1468,"updatedAt":1469,"language":1470},1753,"No GRI Loteamentos 2021, Caio Megale compartilhou projeções e análises com os participantes","\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">No painel de abertura do GRI Loteamentos 2021, o economista-chefe da XP Investimentos, \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"18303\">Caio Megale\u003C\u002Fspan>, falou sobre o atual cenário político-econômico brasileiro e o que esperar em relação à retomada do crescimento no país. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">O primeiro destaque é que a queda do PIB foi menor e a recuperação será mais pujante nos países emergentes. As projeções do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) apontam para uma média de crescimento de 6% nas principais economias globais em 2021, seguida por novo avanço de 4,4% em 2022. A China deve crescer 8,4% e 5,6% e a Índia 12,5% e 6,9%, ambas respectivamente. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Segundo a XP Investimentos, a economia do Brasil vai crescer 5,5% em 2021, frente a uma queda de 4,1% no ano passado. Além da importância das vacinas atualmente e da tecnologia durante todo o confinamento em razão da pandemia, outro destaque para a retomada é que não se trata de uma crise do sistema financeiro, o que deve resultar em um crescimento mais acelerado. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Neste sentido, vale ressaltar que a recuperação no Brasil já é surpreendente, uma vez que o consenso do mercado financeiro é de uma alta do PIB superior a 5% em 2021, ao passo que no início do ano as projeções apontavam para uma alta na casa de 3%. Alguns fatores ajudam a explicar este cenário, como as menores restrições e o aumento da mobilidade mesmo com uma segunda onda de covid-19 mais agressiva.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">Commodities em alta, mas câmbio continua desvalorizado\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A valorização das commodities também tem consequências positivas para o país, já que o Brasil é grande produtor e exportador. Por outro lado, o impacto na inflação tem sido mais duro do que em outros ciclos, já que o Real continua desvalorizado devido ao risco fiscal. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A título de comparação, em outros países exportadores de commodities, como México e Chile, as moedas se valorizaram mais expressivamente frente ao dólar. Segundo Megale, o cenário de normalidade teria uma relação de R$ 4,30 a R$ 4,50 frente à moeda americana. A previsão da XP é que a taxa de câmbio encerre o ano a R$ 4,90, sem grandes alterações ao longo de 2022. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fcaio_otimista_2021_8_18_18_48_42_1629312522.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"18303\">Caio Megale\u003C\u002Fspan> alertou para os principais riscos à retomada da economia, mas acredita que o Brasil avançou nesta agenda nos últimos anos. Foto: Flávio R. Guarnieri\u002FGRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A inflação deve subir mais um pouco e superar os 9% no acumulado de 12 meses devido a um conjunto de fatores, como o desequilíbrio entre oferta e demanda e as adversidades climáticas, além da já mencionada pressão cambial. A expectativa, porém, é que haja uma rápida desaceleração e o IPCA encerre 2021 em 6,7%. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A acomodação dos preços deve continuar no ano que vem: em fevereiro, a inflação deve baixar a casa dos 4,5%, encerrando 2022 em 3,6%, de acordo com a XP.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">Respeito ao teto de gastos é fundamental\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Um dos pontos de maior atenção para a retomada econômica do país é a elevada relação dívida\u002FPIB, que saltou de 75% em 2018 para 88,8% no final do ano passado em razão da necessidade de injeção de capital na economia: foram R$ 60 bilhões por mês através do auxílio emergencial (como comparação, o Bolsa Família tem um custo máximo aproximado de R$ 30 bilhões por ano). \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">O economista-chefe da XP destacou a importância do respeito ao teto de gastos e às políticas de austeridade fiscal. Neste caminho, o país deve encerrar o ano com uma redução importante da dívida bruta para 79,9% do PIB, segundo a projeção.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Além da questão fiscal, uma grande preocupação é com o clima, dada a grande dependência que o Brasil tem das chuvas. Se o próximo período chuvoso não atender as expectativas, poderá haver racionamento e elevação dos custos de energia, o que certamente seria muito prejudicial ao crescimento do país. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Outros possíveis riscos para a retomada da economia são as eleições presidenciais de 2022 - tanto pelo aumento de gastos do governo federal quanto pela incerteza sobre que política será adotada pelo próximo presidente - e o excesso de estímulos do governo dos Estados Unidos à economia, pois se o fiscal “escorregar” e a inflação subir por lá, a correção de juros indicada pelo FED terá que ser maior que o esperado, prejudicando a entrada de investimentos no Brasil. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Faudie_ncia_2021_8_18_18_48_41_1629312521.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Painel teve boa participação da audiência. A capacidade do evento foi limitada a 50%, respeitando os protocolos sanitários. Foto: Flávio R. Guarnieri\u002FGRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">O grande trunfo do país, segundo Megale, são os fundamentos construídos ao longo dos últimos anos, como a criação e o cumprimento do teto de gastos públicos, a lei da liberdade econômica, a autonomia do Banco Central e a mudança na política de fomento do BNDES, dentre outros. “O próximo ano será turbulento, mas haverá um céu azul adiante se mantivermos o leme na direção das reformas. Os fundamentos são bons”, disse o economista.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">IGP-M, Selic, emprego, reformas tributária e administrativa\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A moderação do painel foi realizada pelo sócio da Brain Inteligência Estratégica, \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"2642\">Guilherme Werner\u003C\u002Fspan>, e a segunda metade foi destinada a um debate sobre outras questões, como a retomada do emprego. Para Megale, a lentidão na melhoria deste indicador se deve ao fato de que mais pessoas estão disponíveis no momento. Conforme observado nos dados do Caged, o mercado formal está aquecido, tendência que deve se espalhar para toda a economia nos próximos meses.\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">A utilização do IGP-M nos contratos também foi questionada. O economista-chefe da XP Investimentos afirmou que não faz sentido tê-lo como indexador dada sua volatilidade histórica. Assim, destacou-se a importância da substituição pelo IPCA (embora no recorte de longo prazo as taxas caminhem praticamente “juntas”, o IPCA tem menos oscilações). \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002Fmoderac_a_o_2021_8_18_18_48_42_1629312522.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">O sócio da Brain, \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"2642\">Guilherme Werner\u003C\u002Fspan> (à direita), foi responsável pela moderação do painel e deu boas contribuições ao debate. Foto: Flávio R. Guarnieri\u002FGRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Frente ao movimento de alta da Selic nas últimas reuniões do Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central, a expectativa é que a taxa básica de juros encerre 2021 em 7,25%, nível mantido em 2022 nas projeções da XP. Já em 2023, pode haver um ligeiro recuo para 6,5% ao ano desde que a inflação fique abaixo dos 4% no acumulado de 12 meses. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Sobre as reformas, Megale acredita que o risco político nos leva a uma discussão pouco madura em relação aos tributos. O ideal é que as propostas sejam amplamente debatidas e que haja uma regra de transição por um período não menor do que quatro anos, de modo que os impactos nas empresas sejam minimizados. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">O otimismo é um pouco maior com a reforma administrativa, vista como fundamental para reduzir o gasto do Estado. Mesmo assim, os efeitos serão percebidos apenas no longo prazo, já que as mudanças somente serão válidas para novos entrantes do serviço público.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"color:#6b6b6b\">Por \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"11829\">Henrique Cisman\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n","2021-08-18T15:42:34.000Z","2021-08-18T15:50:55.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1472},[1473,1475,1477],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1474},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1476},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1478},{"code":23},[1480],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1481},[1482,1484,1486],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1483},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1485},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1487},{"code":23},[1489],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1490},"BR",[],{"pt-BR":1493},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Feconomista-chefe-da-xp-destaca-bons-fundamentos-na-retomada-economica-do-brasil_1598",[1495,1496,1497,1498,1499,1500],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]