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estrangeiro",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_Rodrigo_Coelho_2026_7_02_17_07_19_1783022839.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_Rodrigo_Coelho_2026_7_02_17_07_19_1783022839.webp","2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z","GRI Institute",567,"2026-07-02T17:07:19.000Z","2026-07-02T17:24:10.000Z",[1460],{"id":1461,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1462,"subtitle":1463,"content":1464,"summary":978,"takeaways":1465,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1466,"seoKeywords":1467,"seoDescription":1468,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1469,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},4886,"Valorização cambial e liquidez sinalizam janela de entrada para o capital estrangeiro","Em entrevista concedida durante o GRI Brazil Investment Summit, em NY, Rodrigo Coelho analisa os atrativos para investidores internacionais","A convergência entre fundamentos operacionais sólidos, uma janela cambial atipicamente favorável e um mercado de capitais em franca maturação configura o que pode ser o ponto de entrada mais estratégico para o investidor internacional no ciclo imobiliário brasileiro dos últimos anos. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEssa é a visão de \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fmember-profile\u002Fagro\u002Frodrigo-coelho_1180\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"1180\">Rodrigo Coelho\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fa>, head of Real Estate da \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fcompany-profile\u002Fvinci-compass-re_19888\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"18573\">Vinci Compass\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fa>, compartilhada em entrevista durante o GRI Brazil Investment Summit, recém-realizado pelo \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> em Nova York. Na conversa sobre o mercado brasileiro, Coelho traça um panorama preciso de onde estão as oportunidades reais para quem aloca capital global no país.\r\n\u003Ch2>Dessa vez, o câmbio joga a favor \u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nHá uma variável que costuma ser tratada como ruído nos modelos de alocação e que, neste ciclo, assume protagonismo: o comportamento do real frente ao dólar. \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"1180\">Rodrigo Coelho\u003C\u002Fspan> observa que, mesmo diante de turbulências geopolíticas que historicamente pressionariam a moeda brasileira, o real se valorizou nos últimos 18 meses, um movimento que desafia padrões e reconfigura a equação de retorno para o investidor estrangeiro.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"O investidor que entra agora captura dois vetores de retorno simultâneos: a valorização do ativo imobiliário em reais e o potencial de apreciação cambial", destaca Coelho. Essa dinâmica, segundo o executivo, não é trivial. Em ciclos anteriores, a volatilidade cambial funcionava como barreira de entrada; agora, opera como acelerador.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO cenário se torna ainda mais favorável quando combinado com o patamar elevado de juros domésticos. Isso porque a Selic restritiva, ao mesmo tempo em que comprime a oferta de capital local, amplia o poder de barganha de quem dispõe de recursos para investir. Para o capital estrangeiro, que opera com custo de oportunidade denominado em moeda forte, existe uma assimetria evidente.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FBody_1_Rodrigo_Coelho_2026_7_02_20_06_05_1783022765.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"1180\">Rodrigo Coelho\u003C\u002Fspan> concede entrevista no GRI Brazil Investment Summit (Foto: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nConforma assinala Coelho, a \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"18573\">Vinci Compass\u003C\u002Fspan> orienta seus membros e parceiros a calibrar a exposição entre ativos reais domésticos e dolarização conforme a origem e o perfil de cada portfólio. Não se trata de uma aposta direcional no câmbio, mas de uma leitura estrutural sobre o momento do ciclo que favorece a entrada de capital estrangeiro no mercado imobiliário brasileiro.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>Logística desponta como protagonista\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nSe o câmbio abre a porta, \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fmercado-imobiliario-logistico-vive-auge-mas-escassez-de-oferta-acende-alerta\" target=\"_blank\">a logística é o segmento que oferece o corredor mais largo para o capital atravessar\u003C\u002Fa>. Coelho é direto ao posicionar os ativos logísticos como os de maior atratividade no imobiliário brasileiro, tanto para desenvolvimento quanto para aquisição.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOs fundamentos são conhecidos, mas a intensidade com que se manifestam neste ciclo é distinta. A penetração do e-commerce segue em expansão, a fragmentação logística do território brasileiro demanda infraestrutura cada vez mais sofisticada, e a oferta de ativos de qualidade institucional permanece aquém da demanda. O resultado é um ambiente de precificação favorável.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Logística é o segmento onde convergem os três elementos que o investidor internacional busca: previsibilidade de fluxo de caixa, potencial de valorização e profundidade de mercado para saída", resume Coelho.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA leitura aponta que o ciclo de juros elevados, paradoxalmente, reforça a tese logística. Com menos competidores capitalizados disputando terrenos e projetos, os spreads de desenvolvimento se ampliam. Para gestoras com acesso a capital paciente, como tende a ser o caso de recursos estrangeiros, a janela é de construção de portfólio a custos que dificilmente se repetirão quando o ciclo monetário virar.\r\n\u003Ch2>Quais as oportunidades em outros segmentos?\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Shopping centers\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nO varejo físico brasileiro vive um momento de indicadores operacionais - vendas por metro quadrado, taxa de ocupação, inadimplência - com desempenho robusto. No entanto, os preços de aquisição de ativos maduros não refletem integralmente essa solidez operacional.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCoelho identifica nessa desconexão uma oportunidade específica. No cenário atual, não é vantajoso desenvolver novos empreendimentos, mas sim adquirir ativos consolidados, com fluxo de caixa estabilizado, a múltiplos atrativos, \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fquais-ativos-estao-no-radar-do-investidor-institucional-institucional\" target=\"_blank\">uma visão compartilhada por outros investidores com exposição ao setor\u003C\u002Fa>.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO investidor que busca exposição ao varejo físico brasileiro precisa distinguir entre ativos dominantes em suas regiões de influência e empreendimentos de segunda linha que enfrentam pressão estrutural.\r\n\u003Ch3>Escritórios\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nOs indicadores operacionais em prédios corporativos \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fradar-de-mercado-retorno-ao-regime-presencial-reduz-vacancia-dos-escritorios\" target=\"_blank\">são os melhores em anos: vacância em queda, absorção líquida positiva\u003C\u002Fa>, aluguéis em trajetória de recuperação - batendo recordes em endereços como a Nova Faria Lima, em São Paulo, e seletivamente no Rio de Janeiro.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAinda assim, Coelho reconhece que o segmento não oferece, neste momento, um ângulo claro de entrada para o investidor internacional. Os ativos troféu existem, mas raramente estão disponíveis e, quando estão, a competição entre compradores domésticos já precifica boa parte do upside.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCoelho não descarta o segmento, mas posiciona-o como uma tese em construção, que depende da consolidação de veículos e plataformas capazes de oferecer ao investidor estrangeiro a combinação de escala, governança e liquidez que ele exige.\r\n\u003Ch3>Crédito imobiliário\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nO executivo avalia que o mercado de crédito imobiliário brasileiro \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fgri-barometer-identifica-as-maiores-tendencias-nos-fundos-imobiliarios\" target=\"_blank\">se encontra em posição estruturalmente mais saudável do que pares internacionais\u003C\u002Fa>, uma afirmação que ganha peso quando se consideram os episódios recentes de estresse em fundos fechados de grandes gestoras americanas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Enquanto mercados maduros enfrentaram problemas sérios de resgate e liquidez em veículos de crédito imobiliário, o Brasil atravessou o ciclo sem rupturas sistêmicas", observa.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA estratégia da \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"18573\">Vinci Compass\u003C\u002Fspan> no crédito se apoia em dois pilares: diversificação setorial - com exposição simultânea a imobiliário, agro e infraestrutura - e estruturação com garantias robustas. Essa arquitetura permitiu à gestora atravessar o ciclo adverso do agronegócio com recuperação quase integral dos créditos problemáticos, um resultado que valida a disciplina de originação.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO crédito imobiliário brasileiro se beneficia da maturação do mercado de capitais doméstico, que amplia as fontes de funding e diversifica o perfil dos investidores. Para o capital estrangeiro, a existência de um mercado de crédito funcional e resiliente é condição necessária para a alocação de longo prazo.\r\n\u003Ch2>Aumento da liquidez tende a atrair mais recursos\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nFundos imobiliários listados que se aproximam de R$ 10 bilhões em patrimônio líquido representam um salto qualitativo que altera a equação de entrada do capital institucional global. Isso porque o investidor internacional não faz investimentos apenas com base na atratividade do ativo; ele precisa enxergar o caminho de saída. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"A \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fconfira-os-principais-insights-do-gri-fundos-imobiliarios-2026\" target=\"_blank\">consolidação dos fundos imobiliários brasileiros\u003C\u002Fa> viabiliza transações de grande porte que antes eram impensáveis. Isso muda fundamentalmente a conversa com o investidor institucional global", afirma Coelho.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEssa maturação cria um ciclo virtuoso: \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fpt\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fcombinacao-de-fatores-eleva-atratividade-do-investimento-em-fundos-imobiliarios\" target=\"_blank\">maior liquidez atrai capital mais sofisticado\u003C\u002Fa>, que por sua vez demanda governança mais rigorosa, o que eleva o padrão do mercado e atrai ainda mais capital. O Brasil, nesse sentido, começa a operar em uma faixa de institucionalidade que o aproxima de mercados mais consolidados.\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>Bons ventos estão condicionados à queda de juros\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nAs expectativas do mercado financeiro para a curva de juros se deterioraram nos últimos meses, saindo de um horizonte abaixo de 12% para os atuais 14% a.a. Se em algum momento a tendência voltar a melhorar, todas as teses ficarão ainda mais atrativas para a alocação de capital. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA queda dos juros comprime os yields exigidos, valoriza os ativos existentes e reativa o pipeline de desenvolvimento. Para quem constrói portfólio durante o ciclo restritivo, a reversão monetária funciona como multiplicador de retorno. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO risco, naturalmente, é de timing. Mas Coelho argumenta que o custo de esperar é superior ao custo de entrar cedo: os ativos adquiridos durante o ciclo de juros altos geram fluxo de caixa real enquanto o investidor aguarda a compressão de cap rates.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA questão que permanece é quais plataformas brasileiras estão efetivamente preparadas para capturar o investimento estrangeiro. \u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Fbrazil-gri-2026_5220\" target=\"_blank\">O tema será debatido em profundidade na sessão de abertura do Brazil GRI 2026\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong>. Fique atento para conhecer a programação e fazer parte do evento mais qualificado sobre o mercado imobiliário no Brasil. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.youtube.com\u002Fwatch?v=IzQxW56LLEM&t=5s\" target=\"_blank\">Confira a íntegra da entrevista com \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"1180\">Rodrigo Coelho\u003C\u002Fspan> no canal do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> no YouTube\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>O real apresenta comportamento atípico de apreciação mesmo diante de choques geopolíticos, criando uma dupla oportunidade ao investidor internacional: ganho no ativo imobiliário em moeda local somado à potencial valorização cambial, em um ambiente onde juros elevados restringem a concorrência e ampliam o poder de barganha dos compradores.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>A logística se consolida como o segmento de maior atratividade para desenvolvimento e aquisição no Brasil, enquanto shopping centers oferecem oportunidades concentradas na compra de ativos maduros a preços descontados.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>O mercado de capitais brasileiro atinge um novo patamar de maturidade, com fundos imobiliários beirando R$ 10 bilhões de patrimônio, viabilizando transações de grande porte antes impensáveis - liquidez essencial para o investidor institucional.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","Câmbio e liquidez abrem janela para o capital estrangeiro","investimentos, mercado imobiliário, capital estrangeiro, brasil","Em entrevista concedida durante o GRI Brazil Investment Summit, em NY, Rodrigo Coelho analisa os atrativos do mercado imobiliário brasileiro para investidores internacionais\r\n","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FHub_Social_Rodrigo_Coelho_2026_7_02_17_17_49_1783023469.jpg","2026-07-02T17:07:35.000Z","2026-07-02T17:23:11.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1489},{"code":23},[1491],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1492},"BR",[1494],{"name":1495,"slug":1496,"image":1497,"order":115},"Henrique Cisman","henrique-cisman","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FHenrique_Marcal_Cisman_GRI_Institute_Profile_PIC_2025_11_04_11_31_12_1762266672.jpg",{"pt-BR":1499},"\u002Fmercado-imobiliario\u002Fcambio-e-liquidez-sinalizam-janela-de-entrada-para-o-capital-estrangeiro",[1501,1502,1503,1504,1505,1506],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]