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transportes",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1920x1080_px_[6]_2023_11_10_16_15_38_1699643738.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F600x600_px_[6]_2023_11_10_16_15_38_1699643738.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1859x559_px_[6]_2023_11_10_16_15_38_1699643738.jpg","2023-11-10T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: ","#FFFFFF","Moody's destaca novos investimentos em infra no Brasil","Infraestrutura\r\nEnergia\r\nInvestimentos\r\nTransportes\r\nSaneamento\r\nMobilidade Urbana\r\nSegurança Jurídica\r\nRatings\r\nRiscos\r\nRentabilidade","Cristiane Spercel, SVP de Infraestrutura da Moody's Investors Service, fala com exclusividade ao GRI Club sobre o panorama do setor no Brasil","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSocial_[5]_2023_11_10_16_15_47_1699643747.jpg",1471,"2023-11-10T15:56:56.000Z","2024-05-28T12:53:18.000Z",[1466],{"id":1467,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1468,"content":1469,"summary":8,"takeaways":8,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":8,"seoKeywords":8,"seoDescription":8,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},2265,"Cristiane Spercel, SVP de Infraestrutura da Moody's Investors Service, fala ao GRI Club sobre o panorama do setor no Brasil","Por \u003Cstrong>Henrique Cisman\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nHistoricamente, o investimento em infraestrutura no Brasil não é suficiente para desenvolver o setor de forma apropriada, o que gera gargalos sensíveis em áreas como saneamento básico, transportes e mobilidade urbana. No ano passado, os aportes em infraestrutura representaram 1,86% do PIB, incluindo público e privado. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> Infra entrevistou com exclusividade Cristiane Spercel, vice-presidente sênior de Infraestrutura da Moody's Investors Service, e traz a seguir a avaliação da executiva para o setor no país, com destaque para o pipeline de investimentos e os principais riscos a serem considerados pelos investidores. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Vemos uma necessidade de expandir rapidamente a matriz energética e de transportes para destravar o crescimento econômico, o que apresenta muitas oportunidades", afirma Cristiane. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2023_11_10_at_16.30.47_2023_11_10_19_30_54_1699644654.jpeg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\">(Image: \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Felements.envato.com\u002Fpt-br\u002Fuser\u002Fbaspentrubas\" rel=\"nofollow\" style=\"font-size: 12px; text-align: center;\">baspentrubas\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px; text-align:center\"> | Envato) \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA Moody's avalia que o governo federal reconhece essas necessidades ao incluir no PAC 3 (Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento) projetos que somam 280 bilhões de dólares até 2026, além de um programa bastante amplo de investimentos em governos estaduais, especialmente em mobilidade urbana e desestatizações. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo centro do otimismo com essa agenda, estão reformas e avanços importantes realizados nos últimos anos, como a autonomia do Banco Central, as reformas da Previdência e Trabalhista, a definição de metas fiscais e a Reforma Tributária, vistas como importantes para a sustentação da qualidade de crédito do Brasil. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nTambém pesa a favor o histórico de respeito aos contratos e um ambiente jurídico transparente, aliados a um cenário macroeconômico de recuperação pós-pandemia, ainda que com uma variação do PIB menor em relação a outros países emergentes da região. Atualmente, a Moody's projeta um crescimento de 2,3% em 2023 e de 1,5% no ano que vem. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA inflação ao consumidor deve permanecer controlada, com estimativas em um intervalo de 4,5% a 5,5% nos próximos 12 meses. "Isso deve permitir ao Banco Central manter a trajetória de redução da taxa de juros, criando um cenário mais favorável para novos investimentos e condições de rentabilidades mais atrativas em novos leilões de infraestrutura", explica Cristiane. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNos cálculos da Moody's, o capital privado pode cobrir até 60% das necessidades de investimento no setor nos próximos anos, via concessões e parcerias público-privadas. No momento, entretanto, o investidor estrangeiro está mais cauteloso em razão do contexto global, especialmente a trajetória de juros nos Estados Unidos, o crescimento mais fraco da China e os conflitos geopolíticos.\r\n\u003Ch3>R$ 100 bilhões em leilões de transmissão\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nAs expectativas são boas para novos leilões de transmissão de energia no Brasil. A Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) prevê um volume de projetos que equivalem a R$ 100 bilhões em investimentos para expandir o sistema até 2031. Para a Moody's, o movimento está alinhado ao processo de transição energética ao conectar projetos renováveis de fontes intermitentes, como geração solar e eólica. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Vemos um baixo risco de crédito nos projetos de transmissão porque eles contam com uma receita previsível em contratos regulados de longo prazo, sem exposição de volume e com reajustes periódicos", afirma Cristiane. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPor outro lado, os grandes descontos ofertados nos leilões mais recentes em razão da alta competitividade diminuem a capacidade de endividamento dos projetos, uma vez que uma receita menor reduz a disponibilidade de caixa recorrente para o pagamento da dívida. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo período de construção, a Moody's alerta para as dificuldades com licenciamento ambiental e direitos de passagem, que podem atrasar a execução e comprometer a rentabilidade para os acionistas, considerando que são cabíveis multas regulatórias se houver atraso na conclusão das obras. \r\n\u003Ch3>Preços mais baixos afetam empresas de geração\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nNo primeiro semestre, observou-se uma queda acentuada nos preços médios em novos contratos de geração de energia, tanto pela recuperação do nível dos reservatórios após a crise hídrica de 2021 quanto pela entrada de 5,1 gigawatt (GW) de nova capacidade no sistema. Como a recuperação da demanda segue lenta, há uma sobreoferta de energia, derrubando os preços. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Em novos contratos no mercado livre, trabalhamos com uma projeção conservadora para os próximos quatro anos, com preços médios bem menores do que um ano atrás, em torno de R$ 90 por megawatt-hora (MWh), o que é 46% abaixo do que a estimativa feita em 2022", revela a executiva. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNeste novo cenário, a Moody's vem ajustando os ratings de algumas empresas do setor, já que a combinação de preços mais baixos com juros ainda altos comprometem a rentabilidade dos projetos - novos e existentes -, em especial os que estão voltados para o mercado livre de energia, que têm contratos mais curtos e, por esse motivo, estão mais expostos à reprecificação. \r\n\u003Ch3>Mais R$ 300 bilhões em saneamento básico\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nO histórico recente de investimentos em saneamento é um ótimo exemplo de como a combinação de regras claras e incentivos adequados ajuda a destravar projetos. Desde a aprovação do novo marco legal, em 2020, há um crescimento exponencial de PPPs e concessões no setor, vistas como vitais para alcançar as metas de universalização: 99% da população atendida com fornecimento de água tratada, e 90% com esgotamento sanitário à disposição até 2033.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCristiane destaca o papel desempenhado com sucesso pelo BNDES na estruturação de projetos, a exemplo das concessões de blocos da CEDAE, no Rio de Janeiro. "Acreditamos que essa agenda deve permanecer robusta, viabilizando cerca de R$ 300 bilhões em novos investimentos até 2026". \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Privatizações de estatais, como Copasa e Sabesp, têm potencial de acelerar os investimentos no setor", complementa. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO ponto de atenção é a cobrança de outorga onerosa nos leilões, pois isso pode limitar a concorrência: primeiro porque o tempo de maturação dos projetos de saneamento é mais longo, e segundo porque as empresas privadas atuantes no setor se encontram com alavancagem elevada devido a investimentos contratados nos últimos anos. "Elas estão bastante focadas na consolidação dos ativos existentes e e na gestão de seus passivos", aponta a executiva. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNeste sentido, novos projetos tendem a requerer injeção de capital dos acionistas para balancear o endividamento.\r\n\u003Ch3>Intervenção política\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nA Moody's salienta os riscos de intervenções políticas na América Latina, que têm crescido recentemente, tanto no Brasil quanto na Argentina, Colômbia, no Chile e México, países nos quais a empresa também realiza cobertura de ratings. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Isso acontece principalmente nos setores elétrico e de transportes, em função das pressões inflacionárias e uma preocupação sobre a capacidade de pagamento dos consumidores". \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA executiva pondera que o principal ponto a ser considerado é a capacidade de recuperação da receita em algum momento. "No Brasil, os contratos de concessão permitem a recomposição desses custos por meio de cláusulas de equilíbrio econômico-financeiro, e temos bastante evidência de suporte dos reguladores para a compensação de perdas de capital de giro". \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fclub\u002Finfrastructure\u002Fgri-club-infra-brazil_2\" target=\"_blank\">Saiba mais e solicite sua participação no \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> Infra \u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong>","2023-11-10T15:57:51.000Z","2023-11-10T16:32:18.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482,1490,1498],{"id":101,"label":1403,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1403,"slug":1414,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1417,"slug":1418,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1421,"slug":1422,"language":1489},{"code":23},{"id":159,"label":943,"translations":1491},[1492,1494,1496],{"label":954,"slug":955,"language":1493},{"code":13},{"label":958,"slug":959,"language":1495},{"code":18},{"label":962,"slug":963,"language":1497},{"code":23},{"id":120,"label":986,"translations":1499},[1500,1502,1504],{"label":986,"slug":997,"language":1501},{"code":13},{"label":1000,"slug":1001,"language":1503},{"code":18},{"label":1004,"slug":1001,"language":1505},{"code":23},[1507],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1508},"BR",[],{"pt-BR":1511},"\u002Finfraestrutura\u002Fmoodys-destaca-novos-investimentos-em-energia-saneamento-e-transportes",[1513,1514,1515,1516,1517,1518],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]