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energética”",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F_top_2021_7_30_17_41_13_1627677673.png","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_2021_7_07_10_50_02_1625665802_2021_7_30_13_43_10_1627663390.jpeg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FTop_energia_2021_7_30_14_51_09_1627667469.jpeg","2021-07-30T00:00:00.000Z","Crédito: Adigum Ampa \u002FUnsplash","#FFFFFF","GRI e LCA realizam primeiro encontro da série","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Fsocial_energia_2021_7_30_13_43_10_1627663390.jpg",919,"2021-07-30T13:43:10.000Z","2024-05-28T07:38:10.000Z",[1464],{"id":1465,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1466,"content":1467,"summary":8,"takeaways":8,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":8,"seoKeywords":8,"seoDescription":8,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1468,"updatedAt":1469,"language":1470},1738,"Debate teve a participação de associações e empresas do mercado de energia","\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">O GRI reuniu no mês de julho um grupo seleto de especialistas e \u003Cem>players\u003C\u002Fem> do setor para dar partida a uma discussão em três momentos sobre a situação e as perspectivas do setor de energia elétrica brasileiro diante de mais um episódio desafiador de crise na oferta de energia.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nParticiparam do debate o presidente do ONS, \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"12700\">Luiz Carlos Ciocchi\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>; o presidente da EPE, \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"2148\">Thiago Barral\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>; o diretor técnico da ABRACE, \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"18355\">Fillipe Soares\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>; o presidente da Votorantim Energia, \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"6450\">Fabio Zanfelice\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>; o gerente de sustentabilidade e energia da Votorantim Cimentos,\u003Cstrong> Fábio Cirilo\u003C\u002Fstrong>; o gerente geral de Refinaria\u002FGás Natural da Petrobras, \u003Cstrong>Álvaro Tupiassu\u003C\u002Fstrong>; e o superintendente de regulação da Neoenergia, \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"7486\">Fabiano Carvalho\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>. O debate foi mediado por \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"2281\">\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"2366\">Fernando Camargo\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong> e \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"18435\">Janine Goulart\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>, da LCA.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nComo pano de fundo para este primeiro encontro, destaca-se o fato de o Brasil vir enfrentando um período desafiador para a oferta de energia elétrica, em particular por conta da escassez extrema de recursos hídricos, por sua vez decorrente de baixíssimos níveis de afluência e elevada vazão servindo a outros usos que não elétricos. Por ser tentador, aparecem com recorrência na imprensa e nas falas de alguns analistas comparações com períodos agudos de crise hídrica de anos anteriores, como 2001 e 2014\u002F15, tornando necessário qualificar a discussão para sua correta interpretação.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSegundo a visão do ONS, o operador trabalha com o set de oferta disponível de todas as fontes e os submercados e com a capacidade de intercâmbio entre os submercados em sua programação semanal, tendo o objetivo de atender à demanda que é projetada pela EPE com base em cenários próprios atualizáveis de tempos em tempos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA demanda prevista para 2021 deverá crescer 4,5% sobre 2020; com reservatórios em baixa histórica (destaque para os lagos de Jupiá e Porto Primavera, operando já abaixo do mínimo recomendável, entre outros reservatórios do Sudeste, com destaque para as bacias do Paranaguá e Rio Grande), tem sido necessário - já há alguns meses - despachar volumes crescentes de termelétricas e aproveitar ao máximo a capacidade de intercâmbio com outros subsistemas para atender ao SS Sudeste-Centro Oeste.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAssim, destacam-se: (i) presença sólida de térmicas; (ii) elevada capacidade de transmissão Norte\u002FNordeste-Sudeste\u002FCentro-Oeste (incluindo geração recorde de eólicas do Nordeste); e (iii) diversidade de fontes, com destaque para renováveis (eólicas, solar e biomassa).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">Se, por um lado, 2021 apresenta um repertório mais rico e diversificado de oferta relativamente a 2001, por outro lado a demanda vem crescendo num ritmo acelerado puxada pelo setor industrial e pelo comércio, destacando-se as atividades com elevado padrão competitivo ligadas a commodities agroindustriais e minerais. \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAssim, ao contrário de 2001 e 2015, a demanda em 2021 vem crescendo de forma sustentável, acima do patamar de 4,5% a.a. projetado por EPE\u002FONS, tornando a operação do sistema algo ainda mais desafiador: em simulações recentes, a LCA tem encontrado números entre 5,5% e 6% de crescimento da demanda de energia em 2021 frente a 2020, acrescentando algo em torno de 3 GWm à carga do sistema para este ano. Ainda mais desafiador, a demanda máxima (carga na ponta do sistema) tende a superar a capacidade de oferta nos meses vindouros, tornando o balanço bastante estressado quanto mais nos aproximamos do verão e do início do período de chuvas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">Este cenário torna ainda mais relevantes as medidas em curso na tentativa de ajustar a curva de carga dos grandes consumidores e deslocá-la para momentos fora da ponta. Para a Abrace, apesar de um forte acionamento de térmicas desde outubro de 2020, os preços (PLD) não vêm refletindo adequadamente os custos marginais de operação majorados por esta estratégia; da mesma forma, os tetos atuais de preço praticados no PLD estão limitando a correta sinalização de preços necessária para incentivar a resposta da demanda. É de se esperar que tal resposta se dê de forma voluntária, e para isso os preços precisam estar corretamente definidos. Para ter sucesso na resposta da demanda, seria importante que este mecanismo fosse estabelecido de forma a privilegiar a simplicidade e que levasse em conta diferenças nos diversos setores para otimizar a resposta voluntária. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nApesar de a demanda mostrar dinamismo, deve-se ter em conta que há diversos setores dinâmicos com baixa intensidade elétrica e que puxam o PIB, mas não a carga; embora haja sinais de retomada, os setores relevantes do ponto de vista da intensidade elétrica estão sendo monitorados. Com isso, a situação de atendimento do sistema do ponto de vista do balanço energético (e não necessariamente de potência) está sob controle. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO balanço de potência passa muito pela possibilidade de gestão do horário de ponta. É importante ressaltar que o correto sinal de preço também é importante para ativar a autoprodução; de fato, esta modalidade de oferta tem crescido bastante nos últimos anos como alternativa à oferta no ACR e aos contratos tradicionais do ACL, propiciando alternativas de oferta mais seguras e competitivas frente às alternativas tradicionais.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUm dos grandes consumidores presente na reunião reforçou este ponto ao dizer que o grupo já atende cerca de 60% de sua demanda via autoprodução, e que esta estratégia combinou esforços de elevação da competitividade e segurança energética com sustentabilidade ambiental. Sobre a possibilidade de um \u003Cem>shift\u003C\u002Fem> na demanda de ponta, alertou para o fato de que a demanda fortemente pressionada aliada ao atual nível baixo dos estoques dificulta mudanças nas jornadas de produção. De fato, a demanda acelerada em muitos setores (sobretudo os ligados a insumos para construção civil e materiais básicos) pode ser um complicador para o sucesso da resposta de demanda neste momento crítico.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nTambém foi ressaltada a importância de resgatar pontos centrais da CP 33, que prevê alterações relevantes na regulação do setor. Chama a atenção para a assimetria entre ACR e ACL que poderia se aprofundar com a abertura do mercado para diferentes modalidades de contratação e incentivar ainda mais a autoprodução. Com efeito, as distribuidoras deixarão de contratar mais no longo prazo face à incerteza do ritmo desta migração, ademais já em curso por conta de sinais equivocados e da alta instabilidade do preço.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPor fim, foi destacado o papel das termelétricas e do gás natural neste processo. Chamou a atenção inicialmente pelo fato de que a demanda global por GN está em franca expansão no Brasil: distribuidoras em geral puxando mais oferta que o programado e térmicas operando em níveis elevados de despacho. Para dar conta deste cenário, a Petrobras vem redobrando esforços para elevar a capacidade de entrega da commodity – o recorde de produção e oferta de GN no sistema foi atingido em 28 de junho de 2021. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nChamou a atenção, também, para o fato de que a disponibilidade de térmicas a gás está em linha com o planejado ou superior em alguns momentos, ao contrário do que tem sido divulgado, incorretamente, pela mídia; as usinas térmicas vêm operando acima dos níveis históricos de despacho e a indisponibilidade faz parte da manutenção programada (por exemplo: turbinas a gás, a cada 8.000 horas trabalhadas, param por 30 a 40 dias).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUm dos membros presente ressaltou a baixa capacidade de estocagem do GN, defendendo uma maior oferta, abertura do mercado de GN e a presença de térmicas flexíveis para substituir com segurança a capacidade da energia hidráulica, que vem sendo reduzida quando comparada com condições históricas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>Concluindo\u003C\u002Fstrong>, as térmicas a gás são necessárias para a operação segura do sistema e é necessário integrar os mercados de gás e energia.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAcompanhe a série “Diálogos da crise energética” para membros do GRI Club. A próxima reunião será em agosto.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>\u003Cspan style=\"color:null\">Escrito por:\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n","2021-07-30T13:43:27.000Z","2021-08-04T08:51:07.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1472},[1473,1475,1477],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1474},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1476},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1478},{"code":23},[1480],{"id":120,"label":986,"translations":1481},[1482,1484,1486],{"label":986,"slug":997,"language":1483},{"code":13},{"label":1000,"slug":1001,"language":1485},{"code":18},{"label":1004,"slug":1001,"language":1487},{"code":23},[1489],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1490},"BR",[],{"pt-BR":1493},"\u002Finfraestrutura\u002Fgri-e-lca-realizam-primeiro-encontro-da-serie-dialogos-da-crise-energetica_1583",[1495,1496,1497,1498,1499,1500],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]