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Perú",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Feconomistas-infraestructura-colombia-peru-jalil-rawlins-moreno-miranda.webp","2026-03-08T00:00:00.000Z",932,"2026-03-17T20:14:15.000Z",[1457,1469,1480],{"id":1458,"newsId":1447,"languageId":47,"title":1459,"subtitle":1460,"content":1461,"summary":1462,"takeaways":1463,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1464,"seoKeywords":1465,"seoDescription":1466,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1467,"createdAt":1455,"updatedAt":8,"language":1468},3664,"The economists who decide what infrastructure gets built in Colombia and Peru","Munir Jalil, Roberto Moreno Mejía, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera and the Rawlins case shape the power map that determines capital flows into Andean projects.","\u003Cp>Infrastructure in Latin America advances or stalls based on macroeconomic diagnoses, regulatory decisions, and confidence signals issued by specific actors. In the Andean region, a small group of economists, government advisors, and private developers wields disproportionate influence over the project pipeline. Their projections shape the viability of concessions, their institutional positions determine the pace of execution, and their investment decisions reveal where private capital perceives opportunity.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>This analysis examines four profiles that, from different angles, shape the conditions for infrastructure investment in Colombia and Peru: Munir Jalil through Colombia's macroeconomic outlook, Roberto Moreno Mejía through private execution of large-scale urban projects, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera through the institutional architecture of Peruvian public spending, and José Miguel Rawlins as a signal of systemic risk in the private capital market.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>How do Munir Jalil and Roberto Moreno Mejía define the Colombian infrastructure investment cycle?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Munir Jalil, chief economist at BTG Pactual for the Andean region, has established himself as one of the voices with the greatest capacity to shape expectations in the Colombian market. His projection of 2.6% GDP growth for Colombia in 2025 marks, according to his analysis, the beginning of an economic recovery phase (BTG Pactual \u002F Valora Analitik, January 2025). Jalil's reading goes beyond the individual data point: by projecting that inflation in Colombia will converge to the 3% target range by the end of 2025 and close the year at 3.8%, he builds the technical argument for the Banco de la República to continue cutting interest rates.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>For the infrastructure sector, this signal has direct consequences. A declining rate environment reduces the financing cost of concessions and improves the return equation for public-private partnership projects. The Colombian Chamber of Infrastructure (CCI) projects that the civil works sector in Colombia would grow 5% in 2025, driven by the execution of fifth-generation (5G) projects. Jalil's optimistic diagnosis serves as macroeconomic validation of that investment cycle.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>However, the reality of public execution introduces a severe contradiction. According to the CCI itself, the transportation sector in Colombia recorded its worst budget execution in history in 2025, spending less than half its budget. This gap between favorable macroeconomic conditions and institutional paralysis in spending execution defines the central dilemma of the Colombian market: macro signals invite investment, but the state's capacity to channel those resources into actual projects has critically deteriorated.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>In this public execution vacuum, private capital finds its space. Roberto Moreno Mejía, through Amarilo, leads large-scale investments such as Lagos de Torca in Bogotá, a project with an estimated value of 3.5 to 4.5 trillion Colombian pesos (Caracol Radio \u002F Amarilo, December 2025). Lagos de Torca represents the type of integrated urban infrastructure—with housing, transportation, and services components—that Colombia's public sector has been unable to execute at a comparable pace. Moreno Mejía embodies a model where the private developer assumes urban planning functions that traditionally belonged to the state.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>The Jalil-Moreno combination illustrates a recurring dynamic in Colombia: the macro economist validates market conditions, and the private developer executes where the state falls short. GRI Institute members who participate in forums dedicated to Andean infrastructure have identified this asymmetry as one of the structural factors that shape project selection in the country.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>The legislative debate adds another layer of complexity. Bill 232 of 2024, Colombia's Railway Law, seeks to regulate the infrastructure and operation of freight and passenger trains and create the National Railway Agency. Approved in its first debate in December 2024, this regulatory framework could open an entirely new segment of concessions. The question for investors is whether Colombia's institutional capacity, already overwhelmed in the road sector, can absorb the additional complexity of a national railway system.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>What role does David Guillermo Miranda Herrera play in Peru's public investment architecture?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>In Peru, the flow of infrastructure investment depends on a chain of technical decisions originating in the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). David Guillermo Miranda Herrera holds the position of Advisor to the Cabinet of Advisors of the Ministerial Office at the MEF (Peruvian State Platform, April 2025). From that position, Miranda Herrera operates as one of the technical filters through which the Peruvian government's spending and public investment decisions pass.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>The role of a ministerial advisor at Peru's MEF acquires strategic relevance in a context where ProInversión's public-private partnership project portfolio for 2025-2026 exceeds $15.8 billion (ProInversión, September 2024). The approval of Law No. 32441, the new Public-Private Partnerships and Asset Projects Law, empowers ProInversión to act as the lead entity on large projects (exceeding 80,000 UIT), centralizing execution and reducing the fragmentation that has historically delayed awards.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Luis del Carpio, Director of ProInversión, has indicated that Peru could close its short-term infrastructure gap in four years if it maintains an award pace of $9 billion annually. This ambitious target requires the MEF's technical machinery—where Miranda Herrera is part of the advisory core—to operate with precision in order to unblock regulatory and budgetary bottlenecks.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Profiles like Miranda Herrera's are decisive precisely because they operate at the intersection of political will to invest and technical capacity to execute. At GRI Institute forums dedicated to Latin American infrastructure, private-sector participants have repeatedly noted that the predictability of Peru's institutional framework, rather than the individual profitability of each project, determines capital allocation decisions.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>What does the Rawlins case reveal about private capital risks in Andean infrastructure?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>José Miguel Rawlins, linked to Bicentenario Capital, faces a forced liquidation process initiated by Frontal Trust in February 2026 (La Tercera \u002F GRI Hub, February 2026). His case constitutes a warning signal for the investment ecosystem in the region. Rawlins represented an active financial structuring profile in the private capital market, and his crisis exposes the fragility of certain investment vehicles when market conditions deteriorate.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>The forced liquidation of a firm linked to the structuring of real assets sends a direct signal to the market: investment instruments that channel capital toward infrastructure and real estate assets face liquidity risks that transcend the individual quality of underlying projects. For institutional investors evaluating opportunities in the Andean region, the Rawlins case underscores the need for deep due diligence on the financial structure of vehicles, not just on the assets themselves.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>This episode contrasts with the institutional strength shown by other ecosystem players. While Jalil projects from a top-tier banking platform, Moreno Mejía executes with proprietary capital on tangible projects, and Miranda Herrera operates within the Peruvian state apparatus, the Rawlins case is a reminder that the financial intermediation chain contains vulnerable links.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>The influence map that defines the Andean pipeline\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Infrastructure in Colombia and Peru is not built in the abstract. It advances when macroeconomic diagnoses generate confidence, when regulatory frameworks reduce uncertainty, when technical advisors in ministries unblock processes, and when private capital finds viable conditions for execution.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Munir Jalil shapes Colombian market expectations with projections that validate the recovery cycle. Roberto Moreno Mejía demonstrates that private capital can execute massive urban infrastructure where the state fails. David Guillermo Miranda Herrera operates as a technical gear in Peru's public investment machinery, precisely as the country seeks to award more than $15.8 billion in PPP projects. And the case of José Miguel Rawlins is a reminder that financial intermediation in the region carries risks that demand constant vigilance.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Understanding who influences decisions—and from what institutional position—is as valuable as analyzing the projects themselves. GRI Institute will continue mapping these influence profiles through its community of infrastructure leaders, its research, and its forums dedicated to the Andean market, where investment decisions are forged in direct conversations between those who set the rules and those who deploy the capital.\u003C\u002Fp>","The article analyzes how four key profiles determine capital flows into infrastructure in Colombia and Peru. Munir Jalil validates Colombia's investment cycle through macroeconomics, while Roberto Moreno Mejía executes large-scale private urban projects amid state paralysis. In Peru, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera serves as a technical filter at the MEF to unlock a PPP portfolio exceeding $15.8 billion. The José Miguel Rawlins case and Bicentenario Capital's forced liquidation serve as a warning about the fragility of financial intermediation vehicles in the Andean region.","\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>Munir Jalil (BTG Pactual) projects 2.6% GDP for Colombia in 2025 and inflation converging to 3%, validating conditions for infrastructure investment.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Colombia recorded its worst historical budget execution in transportation in 2025, spending less than half the budget.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Roberto Moreno Mejía (Amarilo) leads Lagos de Torca in Bogotá, valued at 3.5 to 4.5 trillion pesos, filling the state execution gap.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Peru seeks to award over $15.8 billion in PPP projects between 2025-2026.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>The Rawlins case and Bicentenario Capital's forced liquidation highlight liquidity risks in regional investment vehicles.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n","Economists shaping infrastructure in Colombia and Peru","munir jalil, jose miguel rawlins, roberto moreno mejía, david guillermo miranda herrera, colombia infrastructure, peru infrastructure, andean PPP","Strategic analysis of how Munir Jalil, Roberto Moreno Mejía, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera and the Rawlins case determine infrastructure investment flows in Colombia and Peru. Market data, PPP regulation and private capital signals.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Feconomistas-infraestructura-colombia-peru-jalil-rawlins-moreno-miranda-seo.jpg",{"code":13},{"id":1470,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1471,"subtitle":1472,"content":1473,"summary":1474,"takeaways":1475,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1476,"seoKeywords":1477,"seoDescription":1478,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1467,"createdAt":1455,"updatedAt":8,"language":1479},3665,"Os economistas que decidem qual infraestrutura é construída na Colômbia e no Peru","Munir Jalil, Roberto Moreno Mejía, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera e o caso Rawlins formam o mapa de poder que determina o fluxo de capital para projetos andino","\u003Cp>A infraestrutura na América Latina avança ou estagna em função de diagnósticos macroeconômicos, decisões regulatórias e sinais de confiança emitidos por atores específicos. Na região andina, um grupo reduzido de economistas, assessores governamentais e incorporadores privados exerce influência desproporcional sobre o pipeline de projetos. Suas projeções condicionam a viabilidade de concessões, suas posições institucionais determinam a velocidade de execução e suas decisões de investimento revelam onde o capital privado percebe oportunidade.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Esta análise examina quatro perfis que, a partir de ângulos distintos, configuram as condições de investimento em infraestrutura na Colômbia e no Peru: Munir Jalil pela leitura macroeconômica colombiana, Roberto Moreno Mejía pela execução privada de projetos urbanos de grande escala, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera pela arquitetura institucional do gasto público peruano, e José Miguel Rawlins como sinal de risco sistêmico no mercado de capital privado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Como Munir Jalil e Roberto Moreno Mejía definem o ciclo de investimento em infraestrutura colombiana?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Munir Jalil, economista-chefe do BTG Pactual para a região andina, consolidou-se como uma das vozes com maior capacidade de orientar expectativas no mercado colombiano. Sua projeção de crescimento do PIB da Colômbia de 2,6% para 2025 marca, segundo sua análise, o início de uma fase de recuperação econômica (BTG Pactual \u002F Valora Analitik, janeiro de 2025). A leitura de Jalil transcende o dado pontual: ao projetar que a inflação na Colômbia convergirá para a meta de 3% até o final de 2025 e que fecharia o ano em 3,8%, ele constrói o argumento técnico para que o Banco de la República continue reduzindo as taxas de juros.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Para o setor de infraestrutura, esse sinal tem consequências diretas. Um ambiente de taxas em queda reduz o custo de financiamento de concessões e melhora a equação de retorno dos projetos de parceria público-privada. A Câmara Colombiana de Infraestrutura (CCI) projeta que o setor de obras civis na Colômbia cresceria 5% em 2025, impulsionado pela execução dos projetos de quinta geração (5G). O diagnóstico otimista de Jalil funciona como validação macroeconômica desse ciclo de investimento.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>No entanto, a realidade da execução pública introduz uma contradição severa. Segundo a própria CCI, o setor de transporte na Colômbia registrou sua pior execução orçamentária histórica em 2025, executando menos da metade do seu orçamento. Essa lacuna entre condições macroeconômicas favoráveis e paralisia institucional na execução do gasto define o dilema central do mercado colombiano: os sinais macro convidam a investir, mas a capacidade estatal de canalizar esses recursos para obras concretas deteriorou-se de forma crítica.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Nesse vazio de execução pública, o capital privado encontra seu espaço. Roberto Moreno Mejía, por meio da Amarilo, lidera investimentos de grande escala como Lagos de Torca em Bogotá, um projeto com valor estimado de 3,5 a 4,5 trilhões de pesos colombianos (Caracol Radio \u002F Amarilo, dezembro de 2025). Lagos de Torca representa o tipo de infraestrutura urbana integrada, com componentes de habitação, transporte e serviços, que o setor público colombiano tem sido incapaz de executar em velocidade comparável. Moreno Mejía encarna um modelo em que o incorporador privado assume funções de planejamento urbano que tradicionalmente cabiam ao Estado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A combinação Jalil-Moreno ilustra uma dinâmica recorrente na Colômbia: o economista macro valida as condições de mercado, o incorporador privado executa onde o Estado não chega. Os membros do GRI Institute que participam de encontros dedicados à infraestrutura andina identificaram essa assimetria como um dos fatores estruturais que condicionam a seleção de projetos no país.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O debate legislativo adiciona outra camada de complexidade. O Projeto de Lei 232 de 2024, a Lei Ferroviária da Colômbia, busca regulamentar a infraestrutura e operação de trens de carga e passageiros e criar a Agência Férrea Nacional. Aprovado em primeiro debate em dezembro de 2024, esse marco normativo poderia abrir um segmento completamente novo de concessões. A pergunta para os investidores é se a capacidade institucional colombiana, já sobrecarregada no setor rodoviário, conseguirá absorver a complexidade adicional de um sistema ferroviário nacional.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Qual papel David Guillermo Miranda Herrera desempenha na arquitetura de investimento público peruano?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>No Peru, o fluxo de investimento em infraestrutura depende de uma cadeia de decisões técnicas que se origina no Ministério da Economia e Finanças (MEF). David Guillermo Miranda Herrera ocupa o cargo de Assessor do Gabinete de Assessores do Despacho Ministerial no MEF (Plataforma do Estado Peruano, abril de 2025). A partir dessa posição, Miranda Herrera opera como um dos filtros técnicos pelos quais transitam as decisões de gasto e investimento público do governo peruano.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O papel de um assessor ministerial no MEF peruano adquire relevância estratégica em um contexto em que a carteira de projetos de parceria público-privada da ProInversión para o período 2025-2026 ultrapassa 15.800 milhões de dólares (ProInversión, setembro de 2024). A aprovação da Lei N° 32441, a nova Lei de Parcerias Público-Privadas e Projetos em Ativos, faculta a ProInversión a atuar como entidade titular em projetos grandes (superiores a 80.000 UIT), centralizando a execução e reduzindo a fragmentação que historicamente atrasou adjudicações.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Luis del Carpio, Diretor da ProInversión, sinalizou que o Peru poderia fechar sua lacuna de infraestrutura de curto prazo em quatro anos se mantiver um ritmo de adjudicações de 9.000 milhões de dólares anuais. Essa meta ambiciosa exige que a máquina técnica do MEF, onde Miranda Herrera faz parte do núcleo assessor, funcione com precisão para destravar gargalos regulatórios e orçamentários.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Perfis como o de Miranda Herrera são decisivos precisamente porque operam na interseção entre a vontade política de investir e a capacidade técnica de executar. Nos fóruns do GRI Institute dedicados à infraestrutura latino-americana, os participantes do setor privado têm apontado repetidamente que a previsibilidade do marco institucional peruano, mais do que a rentabilidade individual de cada projeto, determina as decisões de alocação de capital.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>O que o caso Rawlins revela sobre os riscos do capital privado em infraestrutura andina?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>José Miguel Rawlins, vinculado à Bicentenario Capital, enfrenta um processo de liquidação forçada iniciado pela Frontal Trust em fevereiro de 2026 (La Tercera \u002F GRI Hub, fevereiro de 2026). Seu caso constitui um sinal de alerta para o ecossistema de investimento na região. Rawlins representava um perfil de estruturação financeira ativo no mercado de capital privado, e sua crise evidencia a fragilidade de certos veículos de investimento quando as condições de mercado se deterioram.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O processo de liquidação forçada de uma firma vinculada à estruturação de ativos reais envia um sinal direto ao mercado: os instrumentos de investimento que canalizam capital para infraestrutura e ativos imobiliários enfrentam riscos de liquidez que transcendem a qualidade individual dos projetos subjacentes. Para os investidores institucionais que avaliam oportunidades na região andina, o caso Rawlins ressalta a necessidade de due diligence aprofundada sobre a estrutura financeira dos veículos, não apenas sobre os ativos.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Esse episódio contrasta com a solidez institucional demonstrada por outros atores do ecossistema. Enquanto Jalil projeta a partir de uma plataforma bancária de primeiro nível, Moreno Mejía executa com capital próprio em projetos tangíveis e Miranda Herrera opera dentro da estrutura do Estado peruano, o caso Rawlins lembra que a cadeia de intermediação financeira contém elos vulneráveis.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>O mapa de influência que define o pipeline andino\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>A infraestrutura na Colômbia e no Peru não se constrói em abstrato. Avança quando os diagnósticos macroeconômicos geram confiança, quando os marcos regulatórios reduzem a incerteza, quando os assessores técnicos nos ministérios destravem processos e quando o capital privado encontra condições viáveis de execução.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Munir Jalil configura as expectativas do mercado colombiano com projeções que validam o ciclo de recuperação. Roberto Moreno Mejía demonstra que o capital privado pode executar infraestrutura urbana massiva onde o Estado falha. David Guillermo Miranda Herrera opera como engrenagem técnica na máquina de investimento público peruano, justamente quando o país busca adjudicar mais de 15.800 milhões de dólares em projetos de PPP. E o caso de José Miguel Rawlins lembra que a intermediação financeira na região carrega riscos que exigem vigilância constante.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Compreender quem influencia as decisões e a partir de qual posição institucional é tão valioso quanto analisar os próprios projetos. O GRI Institute continuará mapeando esses perfis de influência por meio de sua comunidade de líderes em infraestrutura, suas pesquisas e seus encontros dedicados ao mercado andino, onde as decisões de investimento são forjadas em conversas diretas entre quem define as regras e quem emprega o capital.\u003C\u002Fp>","O artigo analisa como quatro perfis-chave determinam o fluxo de capital para infraestrutura na Colômbia e no Peru. Munir Jalil valida pela macroeconomia o ciclo de investimento colombiano, enquanto Roberto Moreno Mejía executa megaprojetos urbanos privados diante da paralisia estatal. No Peru, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera atua como filtro técnico no MEF para destravar uma carteira de PPPs de mais de US$ 15,8 bilhões. O caso de José Miguel Rawlins e a liquidação forçada da Bicentenario Capital serve como alerta sobre a fragilidade dos veículos de intermediação financeira na região andina.","\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>Munir Jalil (BTG Pactual) projeta PIB de 2,6% para a Colômbia em 2025 e inflação convergindo para 3%, validando condições para investimento em infraestrutura.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>A Colômbia registrou sua pior execução orçamentária histórica em transporte em 2025, executando menos da metade do orçamento.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Roberto Moreno Mejía (Amarilo) lidera Lagos de Torca em Bogotá, avaliado em 3,5 a 4,5 trilhões de pesos, preenchendo o vazio de execução estatal.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>O Peru busca adjudicar mais de US$ 15,8 bilhões em projetos de PPP entre 2025-2026.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>O caso Rawlins e a liquidação forçada da Bicentenario Capital evidenciam riscos de liquidez em veículos de investimento regionais.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n","Economistas que definem infraestrutura Colômbia Peru","munir jalil, jose miguel rawlins, roberto moreno mejía, david guillermo miranda herrera, infraestrutura colômbia, infraestrutura peru, PPP andina","Análise estratégica sobre como Munir Jalil, Roberto Moreno Mejía, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera e o caso Rawlins determinam o fluxo de investimento em infraestrutura na Colômbia e no Peru. Dados de mercado, regulação de PPPs e sinais ao capital privado.",{"code":18},{"id":1481,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1482,"content":1483,"summary":1484,"takeaways":1485,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1486,"seoKeywords":1487,"seoDescription":1488,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1467,"createdAt":1455,"updatedAt":8,"language":1489},3666,"Munir Jalil, Roberto Moreno Mejía, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera y el caso Rawlins configuran el mapa de poder que determina el flujo de capital hacia los pro","\u003Cp>La infraestructura en América Latina avanza o se detiene en función de diagnósticos macroeconómicos, decisiones regulatorias y señales de confianza que emiten actores específicos. En la región andina, un grupo reducido de economistas, asesores gubernamentales y desarrolladores privados ejerce una influencia desproporcionada sobre el pipeline de proyectos. Sus proyecciones condicionan la viabilidad de concesiones, sus posiciones institucionales determinan la velocidad de ejecución y sus decisiones de inversión revelan dónde percibe oportunidad el capital privado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Este análisis examina cuatro perfiles que, desde ángulos distintos, configuran las condiciones de inversión en infraestructura en Colombia y Perú: Munir Jalil desde la lectura macroeconómica colombiana, Roberto Moreno Mejía desde la ejecución privada de proyectos urbanos de gran escala, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera desde la arquitectura institucional del gasto público peruano, y José Miguel Rawlins como señal de riesgo sistémico en el mercado de capital privado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>¿Cómo definen Munir Jalil y Roberto Moreno Mejía el ciclo de inversión en infraestructura colombiana?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Munir Jalil, economista jefe de BTG Pactual para la región andina, se ha consolidado como una de las voces con mayor capacidad de orientar expectativas en el mercado colombiano. Su proyección de un crecimiento del PIB de Colombia del 2.6% para 2025 marca, según su análisis, el inicio de una fase de recuperación económica (BTG Pactual \u002F Valora Analitik, enero 2025). La lectura de Jalil trasciende el dato puntual: al proyectar que la inflación en Colombia convergerá al rango meta del 3% hacia finales de 2025 y que cerraría el año en 3.8%, construye el argumento técnico para que el Banco de la República continúe reduciendo tasas de interés.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Para el sector de infraestructura, esta señal tiene consecuencias directas. Un entorno de tasas a la baja reduce el costo de financiamiento de concesiones y mejora la ecuación de retorno de los proyectos de asociación público-privada. La Cámara Colombiana de la Infraestructura (CCI) proyecta que el sector de obras civiles en Colombia crecería un 5% en 2025, impulsado por la ejecución de los proyectos de quinta generación (5G). El diagnóstico optimista de Jalil funciona como validación macroeconómica de ese ciclo inversor.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Sin embargo, la realidad de ejecución pública introduce una contradicción severa. Según la propia CCI, el sector transporte en Colombia registró su peor ejecución presupuestal histórica en 2025, ejecutando menos de la mitad de su presupuesto. Esta brecha entre condiciones macroeconómicas favorables y parálisis institucional en la ejecución del gasto define el dilema central del mercado colombiano: las señales macro invitan a invertir, pero la capacidad estatal de canalizar esos recursos hacia obras concretas se ha deteriorado de forma crítica.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>En ese vacío de ejecución pública, el capital privado encuentra su espacio. Roberto Moreno Mejía, a través de Amarilo, lidera inversiones de gran escala como Lagos de Torca en Bogotá, un proyecto con un valor estimado de 3.5 a 4.5 billones de pesos colombianos (Caracol Radio \u002F Amarilo, diciembre 2025). Lagos de Torca representa el tipo de infraestructura urbana integrada, con componentes de vivienda, transporte y servicios, que el sector público colombiano ha sido incapaz de ejecutar a velocidad comparable. Moreno Mejía encarna un modelo donde el desarrollador privado asume funciones de planificación urbana que tradicionalmente correspondían al Estado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>La combinación Jalil-Moreno ilustra una dinámica recurrente en Colombia: el economista macro valida las condiciones de mercado, el desarrollador privado ejecuta donde el Estado no llega. Los miembros de GRI Institute que participan en encuentros dedicados a infraestructura andina han identificado esta asimetría como uno de los factores estructurales que condicionan la selección de proyectos en el país.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>El debate legislativo agrega otra capa de complejidad. El Proyecto de Ley 232 de 2024, la Ley Ferroviaria de Colombia, busca regular la infraestructura y operación de trenes de carga y pasajeros y crear la Agencia Férrea Nacional. Aprobado en primer debate en diciembre de 2024, este marco normativo podría abrir un segmento completamente nuevo de concesiones. La pregunta para los inversionistas es si la capacidad institucional colombiana, ya sobrepasada en el sector carretero, podrá absorber la complejidad adicional de un sistema ferroviario nacional.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>¿Qué papel juega David Guillermo Miranda Herrera en la arquitectura de inversión pública peruana?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>En Perú, el flujo de inversión en infraestructura depende de una cadena de decisiones técnicas que se origina en el Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas (MEF). David Guillermo Miranda Herrera ocupa el cargo de Asesor del Gabinete de Asesores del Despacho Ministerial en el MEF (Plataforma del Estado Peruano, abril 2025). Desde esa posición, Miranda Herrera opera como uno de los filtros técnicos por los que transitan las decisiones de gasto e inversión pública del gobierno peruano.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>El rol de un asesor ministerial en el MEF peruano adquiere relevancia estratégica en un contexto donde la cartera de proyectos de asociación público-privada de ProInversión para el periodo 2025-2026 asciende a más de 15,800 millones de dólares (ProInversión, septiembre 2024). La aprobación de la Ley N° 32441, la nueva Ley de Asociaciones Público-Privadas y Proyectos en Activos, faculta a ProInversión a actuar como entidad titular en proyectos grandes (superiores a 80,000 UIT), centralizando la ejecución y reduciendo la fragmentación que históricamente ha retrasado adjudicaciones.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Luis del Carpio, Director de ProInversión, ha señalado que Perú podría cerrar su brecha de infraestructura de corto plazo en cuatro años si mantiene un ritmo de adjudicaciones de 9,000 millones de dólares anuales. Esta meta ambiciosa requiere que la maquinaria técnica del MEF, donde Miranda Herrera forma parte del núcleo asesor, funcione con precisión para destrabar cuellos de botella regulatorios y presupuestarios.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Perfiles como el de Miranda Herrera resultan decisivos precisamente porque operan en la intersección entre la voluntad política de invertir y la capacidad técnica de ejecutar. En los foros de GRI Institute dedicados a infraestructura latinoamericana, los participantes del sector privado han señalado repetidamente que la previsibilidad del marco institucional peruano, más que la rentabilidad individual de cada proyecto, determina las decisiones de asignación de capital.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>¿Qué revela el caso Rawlins sobre los riesgos del capital privado en infraestructura andina?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>José Miguel Rawlins, vinculado a Bicentenario Capital, enfrenta un proceso de liquidación forzosa iniciado por Frontal Trust en febrero de 2026 (La Tercera \u002F GRI Hub, febrero 2026). Su caso constituye una señal de alerta para el ecosistema de inversión en la región. Rawlins representaba un perfil de estructuración financiera activo en el mercado de capital privado, y su crisis evidencia la fragilidad de ciertos vehículos de inversión cuando las condiciones de mercado se deterioran.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>El proceso de liquidación forzosa de una firma vinculada a la estructuración de activos reales envía una señal directa al mercado: los instrumentos de inversión que canalizan capital hacia infraestructura y activos inmobiliarios enfrentan riesgos de liquidez que trascienden la calidad individual de los proyectos subyacentes. Para los inversionistas institucionales que evalúan oportunidades en la región andina, el caso Rawlins subraya la necesidad de due diligence profundo sobre la estructura financiera de los vehículos, no solo sobre los activos.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Este episodio contrasta con la solidez institucional que muestran otros actores del ecosistema. Mientras Jalil proyecta desde una plataforma bancaria de primer nivel, Moreno Mejía ejecuta con capital propio en proyectos tangibles y Miranda Herrera opera dentro de la estructura del Estado peruano, el caso Rawlins recuerda que la cadena de intermediación financiera contiene eslabones vulnerables.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>El mapa de influencia que define el pipeline andino\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>La infraestructura en Colombia y Perú no se construye en abstracto. Avanza cuando los diagnósticos macroeconómicos generan confianza, cuando los marcos regulatorios reducen la incertidumbre, cuando los asesores técnicos en los ministerios destraban procesos y cuando el capital privado encuentra condiciones de ejecución viables.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Munir Jalil configura las expectativas del mercado colombiano con proyecciones que validan el ciclo de recuperación. Roberto Moreno Mejía demuestra que el capital privado puede ejecutar infraestructura urbana masiva donde el Estado falla. David Guillermo Miranda Herrera opera como engranaje técnico en la maquinaria de inversión pública peruana, justo cuando el país busca adjudicar más de 15,800 millones de dólares en proyectos APP. Y el caso de José Miguel Rawlins recuerda que la intermediación financiera en la región porta riesgos que exigen vigilancia constante.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Comprender quién influye en las decisiones y desde qué posición institucional lo hace resulta tan valioso como analizar los proyectos mismos. GRI Institute continuará mapeando estos perfiles de influencia a través de su comunidad de líderes en infraestructura, sus investigaciones y sus encuentros dedicados al mercado andino, donde las decisiones de inversión se forjan en conversaciones directas entre quienes definen las reglas y quienes despliegan el capital.\u003C\u002Fp>\n","El artículo analiza cómo cuatro perfiles clave determinan el flujo de capital hacia infraestructura en Colombia y Perú. Munir Jalil valida desde la macroeconomía el ciclo inversor colombiano, mientras Roberto Moreno Mejía ejecuta megaproyectos urbanos privados ante la parálisis estatal. En Perú, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera opera como filtro técnico en el MEF para destrabar una cartera APP de más de 15,800 millones de dólares.\n\nEl caso de José Miguel Rawlins y la liquidación forzosa de Bicentenario Capital sirve como advertencia sobre la fragilidad de los vehículos de intermediación financiera en la región andina.","\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>Munir Jalil (BTG Pactual) proyecta un PIB de 2.6% para Colombia en 2025 y una inflación convergiendo al 3%, validando condiciones para inversión en infraestructura.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Colombia registró su peor ejecución presupuestal histórica en transporte en 2025, ejecutando menos de la mitad del presupuesto.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Roberto Moreno Mejía (Amarilo) lidera Lagos de Torca en Bogotá, valorado en 3.5 a 4.5 billones de pesos, llenando el vacío de ejecución estatal.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Perú busca adjudicar más de 15,800 millones de dólares en proyectos APP entre 2025-2026.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>El caso Rawlins y la liquidación forzosa de Bicentenario Capital evidencian riesgos de liquidez en vehículos de inversión regionales.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n","Economistas que definen infraestructura Colombia Perú","munir jalil, jose miguel rawlins, roberto moreno mejía, david guillermo miranda herrera","Análisis estratégico sobre cómo Munir Jalil, Roberto Moreno Mejía, David Guillermo Miranda Herrera y el caso Rawlins determinan el flujo de inversión en infraestructura en Colombia y Perú. Datos de mercado, regulación APP y señales al capital privado.",{"code":23},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1491},[1492,1494,1496],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1493},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1495},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1497},{"code":23},[1499,1507,1515],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1500},[1501,1503,1505],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1502},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1504},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1506},{"code":23},{"id":93,"label":1253,"translations":1508},[1509,1511,1513],{"label":1253,"slug":1264,"language":1510},{"code":13},{"label":1267,"slug":1268,"language":1512},{"code":18},{"label":1271,"slug":1272,"language":1514},{"code":23},{"id":120,"label":986,"translations":1516},[1517,1519,1521],{"label":986,"slug":997,"language":1518},{"code":13},{"label":1000,"slug":1001,"language":1520},{"code":18},{"label":1004,"slug":1001,"language":1522},{"code":23},[1524,1526,1528,1531,1533],{"name":82,"enName":82,"ptName":82,"iso2":1525},"AR",{"name":220,"enName":220,"ptName":220,"iso2":1527},"CL",{"name":233,"enName":233,"ptName":1529,"iso2":1530},"Colômbia","CO",{"name":567,"enName":567,"ptName":567,"iso2":1532},"MX",{"name":676,"enName":676,"ptName":676,"iso2":1534},"PE",[1536],{"name":1537,"slug":1538,"image":8,"order":115},"GRI Institute","gri-institute",{"en":1540,"pt-BR":1541,"es":1542},"\u002Finfrastructure\u002Feconomistas-infraestructura-colombia-peru-jalil-rawlins-moreno-miranda","\u002Finfraestrutura\u002Feconomistas-infraestructura-colombia-peru-jalil-rawlins-moreno-miranda","\u002Finfraestructura\u002Feconomistas-infraestructura-colombia-peru-jalil-rawlins-moreno-miranda",[1544,1545,1546,1547,1548,1549],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]