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Brasil",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Fcredito-local-offshore-infraestrutura-brasil-project-finance-2026.webp","2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z","2026-07-26T09:06:13.000Z",[1456],{"id":1457,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1458,"content":1459,"summary":1460,"takeaways":1461,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1462,"seoKeywords":1463,"seoDescription":1464,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1465,"createdAt":1454,"updatedAt":8,"language":1466},5056,"Com Selic a 14,75% e investimentos projetados em R$ 300 bilhões, bancos globais e locais operam teses opostas de project finance para capturar mandatos em 2026","\u003Cp>O mercado brasileiro de infraestrutura atravessa um momento de inflexão raro. O volume de investimentos alcançou R$ 280 bilhões em 2025, segundo a Abdib, com o setor privado respondendo por algo entre 84% e 86% do total, conforme reportado pela Folha de S.Paulo. A projeção para 2026 aponta para R$ 300 bilhões, um recorde absoluto. Nesse cenário de escala inédita, a pergunta mais relevante para os tomadores de decisão deixou de ser "quanto capital está disponível" e passou a ser "em que moeda, sob qual estrutura e com qual custo esse capital chega aos projetos".\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A resposta a essa pergunta está sendo disputada por dois blocos de instituições financeiras com teses estruturalmente distintas. De um lado, bancos locais de investimento, como a XP, liderada por José Berenguer, e o BTG Pactual e o Itaú BBA, apostam na profundidade crescente do mercado de capitais doméstico, turbinado por instrumentos como as debêntures de infraestrutura criadas pela Lei nº 14.801\u002F2024. Do outro, bancos globais como Barclays, onde Alex Araujo atua como Head of Banking para o Brasil, BNP Paribas e Citi buscam posicionar linhas de crédito em moeda forte como alternativa para megaprojetos cujo porte excede a capacidade de absorção do mercado local.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A tensão entre essas duas abordagens configura uma reconfiguração do crédito internacional para infraestrutura brasileira que merece análise detida.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Por que a Lei 14.801\u002F2024 alterou a equação competitiva entre bancos locais e globais?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>O marco das debêntures de infraestrutura, instituído pela Lei nº 14.801\u002F2024 e regulamentado pelo Decreto nº 11.964\u002F2024, introduziu uma mudança de paradigma no funding doméstico. Enquanto as debêntures incentivadas tradicionais concedem isenção tributária ao investidor pessoa física, o novo instrumento transfere o benefício fiscal para a empresa emissora, que pode deduzir 130% dos juros pagos na apuração do lucro real e da base de cálculo da CSLL.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Esse mecanismo reduz o custo efetivo de captação em reais de forma substancial. Para concessionárias de rodovias, operadores de saneamento e desenvolvedores de energia renovável, isso significa que a estruturação de dívida em moeda local se tornou mais competitiva do que era há dois anos, mesmo num ambiente de juros elevados. A primeira emissão sob o novo marco ocorreu em dezembro de 2025, após a consolidação dos parâmetros regulatórios, e desde então o pipeline de operações tem se adensado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Bancos locais de investimento capturaram essa oportunidade com agilidade. Instituições como a XP, sob a liderança de José Berenguer, posicionaram-se como estruturadores naturais dessas operações, combinando o conhecimento regulatório brasileiro com a capilaridade junto a investidores institucionais domésticos, como fundos de pensão e gestoras de recursos. A tese é clara: em um país onde a Selic iniciou 2026 em 15% e recuou timidamente para 14,75% no primeiro trimestre, segundo dados da BNamericas, o custo do dinheiro em reais já é alto, porém previsível. O funding local elimina a variável cambial e simplifica a modelagem financeira dos projetos.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A dedução ampliada de 130% dos juros funciona como um subsídio implícito ao emissor, tornando a dívida em reais mais barata do que o custo nominal da Selic sugeriria à primeira vista. Essa é uma vantagem competitiva estrutural que os bancos globais simplesmente não conseguem replicar com instrumentos offshore.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Qual é a tese dos bancos internacionais e onde ela encontra espaço?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Se o crédito local ganhou competitividade, por que bancos como o Barclays, com Alex Araujo à frente da operação brasileira, continuam a disputar mandatos de project finance no país? A resposta reside na escala dos projetos e nos limites de absorção do mercado doméstico.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O superciclo de R$ 300 bilhões projetado pela Abdib para 2026 inclui megaconcessões de transporte, programas de universalização de saneamento, parques eólicos offshore e expansão da malha de transmissão. Diversos desses projetos demandam volumes de investimento que excedem a capacidade de uma única emissão de debêntures no mercado local. Nesse ponto, o funding em dólar ou euro, estruturado por bancos internacionais com acesso a pools de liquidez globais, se torna complementar e, em alguns casos, indispensável.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A tese dos bancos globais aposta em três pilares. O primeiro é a capacidade de mobilizar tickets maiores, acessando mercados de capitais internacionais e agências multilaterais. O segundo é a oferta de estruturas de crédito de longo prazo, com prazos que podem superar 15 ou 20 anos, alinhados ao horizonte de retorno dos ativos de infraestrutura. O terceiro é a diversificação de fontes de funding, algo que reduz o risco de concentração para o tomador.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O desafio, contudo, é significativo. Com a Selic a 14,75% e o diferencial de juros entre Brasil e mercados desenvolvidos em patamares elevados, o custo do hedge cambial para converter obrigações em moeda forte para reais se torna proibitivo em muitos cenários. Uma operação em dólar que pareça barata na origem pode se tornar mais cara que a alternativa local quando o custo total, incluindo o swap cambial, é computado.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O funding offshore só se justifica quando o volume do projeto é grande o suficiente para diluir os custos de estruturação e hedge, ou quando a natureza do ativo gera receitas parcialmente dolarizadas, como em alguns contratos de energia renovável com compradores internacionais.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Como a disputa por mandatos redefine a arquitetura financeira dos megaprojetos?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>O cenário que se desenha para o segundo semestre de 2026 aponta para uma convergência pragmática. Os projetos de maior porte tendem a adotar estruturas híbridas, combinando tranches em reais, via debêntures de infraestrutura ou crédito bancário local, com tranches em moeda forte, estruturadas por bancos internacionais. Essa arquitetura permite aos concessionários capturar o benefício fiscal da Lei 14.801\u002F2024 na parcela doméstica enquanto acessam liquidez adicional no mercado externo.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Para bancos locais, isso significa que a competição por mandatos não é um jogo de soma zero. O crescimento do mercado doméstico de dívida de infraestrutura cria espaço para que instituições como a XP, o BTG Pactual e o Itaú BBA ampliem sua participação sem necessariamente deslocar os players globais. Para bancos internacionais como o Barclays, a estratégia passa por identificar os projetos onde a escala e a complexidade justificam a presença de um estruturador com alcance global.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A capacidade de estruturar operações híbridas, combinando funding local e offshore com eficiência tributária e gestão de risco cambial, será o diferencial competitivo decisivo em 2026. Os bancos que dominarem essa engenharia financeira capturarão a maior fatia dos mandatos.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Nesse contexto, o papel de lideranças como José Berenguer na XP e Alex Araujo no Barclays transcende a gestão de suas respectivas plataformas. Ambos representam visões complementares sobre como financiar o maior ciclo de investimentos em infraestrutura da história do Brasil. Berenguer simboliza a maturação do mercado de capitais doméstico e sua capacidade de competir com o crédito internacional em condições cada vez mais favoráveis. Araujo personifica a tese de que a escala dos projetos brasileiros exige a participação de capital global, estruturado com sofisticação e distribuído em múltiplas jurisdições.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O investidor institucional que busca compreender as dinâmicas de project finance no Brasil precisa acompanhar essa disputa de perto. Ela determina os spreads, os prazos e, em última instância, a viabilidade dos megaprojetos que sustentarão a infraestrutura do país na próxima década.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>O papel do GRI Institute nessa discussão\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Os encontros promovidos pelo GRI Institute funcionam como o principal fórum onde CEOs de concessionárias, líderes de bancos de investimento e gestores de fundos de infraestrutura debatem precisamente essas modelagens financeiras. Executivos como José Berenguer e Alex Araujo integram um ecossistema de discussão que permite confrontar teses de crédito em ambiente reservado, com acesso a dados proprietários e inteligência setorial.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>As pesquisas e análises produzidas pelo GRI Institute sobre o mercado de infraestrutura brasileiro oferecem aos seus membros uma camada de inteligência estratégica que vai além da informação pública. Em um momento em que a arquitetura do funding define vencedores e perdedores, essa vantagem informacional tem valor concreto.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O superciclo de infraestrutura brasileiro não será financiado por uma única tese. Será financiado pela combinação inteligente de instrumentos locais e internacionais, calibrada projeto a projeto, tranche a tranche. A sofisticação dessa engenharia financeira determinará se os R$ 300 bilhões projetados para 2026 se converterão em ativos operacionais ou ficarão represados na fase de estruturação.\u003C\u002Fp>\n","O Brasil vive um superciclo de infraestrutura com investimentos projetados em R$ 300 bilhões para 2026. Bancos locais (XP, BTG Pactual, Itaú BBA) e globais (Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi) disputam mandatos de project finance com teses opostas: o crédito doméstico, fortalecido pela Lei 14.801\u002F2024 e sua dedução fiscal de 130% dos juros, versus o funding offshore, que oferece escala e prazos longos mas enfrenta custos de hedge cambial elevados com a Selic a 14,75%.\n\nA tendência para 2026 aponta para estruturas híbridas que combinam debêntures de infraestrutura em reais com tranches em moeda forte, calibradas conforme o porte e a natureza de cada projeto.","\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>Investimentos em infraestrutura no Brasil devem atingir R$ 300 bilhões em 2026, recorde absoluto, com o setor privado respondendo por 84-86% do total.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>A Lei 14.801\u002F2024 permite dedução de 130% dos juros pagos, reduzindo o custo efetivo de captação em reais e fortalecendo bancos locais.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Com Selic a 14,75%, o custo do hedge cambial torna o funding offshore proibitivo para muitos projetos.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Megaprojetos tendem a adotar estruturas híbridas, combinando tranches em reais e em moeda forte.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>A capacidade de integrar funding local e offshore será o diferencial competitivo decisivo entre os bancos.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n","Crédito local vs offshore: infraestrutura Brasil 2026","jose berenguer, alex araujo barclays, gri institute, debentures infraestrutura 2026, project finance brasil","Análise estratégica sobre como bancos locais e internacionais disputam mandatos de project finance no superciclo de infraestrutura brasileiro, com a Lei 14.801\u002F2024 e Selic a 14,75% redefinindo a equação competitiva.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Fcredito-local-offshore-infraestrutura-brasil-project-finance-2026-seo.jpg",{"code":18},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1468},[1469,1471,1473],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1470},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1472},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1474},{"code":23},[1476,1484,1492],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1477},[1478,1480,1482],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1479},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1481},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1483},{"code":23},{"id":93,"label":1253,"translations":1485},[1486,1488,1490],{"label":1253,"slug":1264,"language":1487},{"code":13},{"label":1267,"slug":1268,"language":1489},{"code":18},{"label":1271,"slug":1272,"language":1491},{"code":23},{"id":136,"label":1051,"translations":1493},[1494,1496,1498],{"label":1051,"slug":1062,"language":1495},{"code":13},{"label":1065,"slug":1066,"language":1497},{"code":18},{"label":1069,"slug":1070,"language":1499},{"code":23},[1501],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1502},"BR",[1504],{"name":1505,"slug":1506,"image":8,"order":115},"GRI Institute","gri-institute",{"pt-BR":1508},"\u002Finfraestrutura\u002Fcredito-local-offshore-infraestrutura-brasil-project-finance-2026",[1510,1511,1512,1513,1514,1515],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]