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inovações",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_BRINF_Highways_Concessions_Unsplash_Slider_2026_4_15_14_44_11_1776275051.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_BRINF_Highways_Concessions_Unsplash_Cover_2026_4_15_14_44_11_1776275051.webp","2026-04-15T00:00:00.000Z","Ana Knesebeck - Unsplash","2026-04-24T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-15T14:44:11.000Z","2026-04-17T17:07:29.000Z",[1460],{"id":1461,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1462,"content":1463,"summary":978,"takeaways":1464,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1465,"seoKeywords":1466,"seoDescription":1462,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1467,"createdAt":1468,"updatedAt":1469,"language":1470},4246,"Maturidade das modelagens encontra interesse em investidores nacionais e estrangeiros; free flow, IA e capacidade de funding são vetores a serem observados","O setor de concessões rodoviárias no Brasil atingiu um patamar de maturidade que poucos antecipavam há uma década. Com R$ 260 bilhões em investimentos contratados, 23 leilões realizados, 16 vencedores distintos e o retorno de investidores internacionais ausentes desde 2007, a questão que se impõe deixou de ser "como atrair capital" e passou a ser "como transformar escala em diferenciação sustentável". \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F02_BRINF_Highways_Concessions_GRI_Body_2026_4_15_17_40_13_1776274813.webp\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Mesa-redonda do \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> abordou as concessões de rodovias na sede da Aon, em São Paulo (Foto: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>Um sistema que funciona\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nO leilão da "Rota das Gerais" (BR-116\u002F251\u002FMG), realizado em 31 de março, teve como proposta vencedora um desconto de 19% sobre a tarifa-teto, o que evidencia evolução e ganho de maturidade das modelagens. Ao longo dos 23 certames recentes, foram registrados 50 envelopes de propostas com 27 participantes distintos, um nível de competitividade que valida a arquitetura regulatória construída nos últimos anos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nÉ nesse ponto que o conceito de "oceano azul" ganha relevância operacional, com criação de espaços de valor mais orientados a eficiência sistêmica, qualidade de serviço e previsibilidade de retornos como vetores de diferenciação.\r\n\u003Ch2>Free flow e tarifação dinâmica\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nO avanço mais tangível é a consolidação do free flow como tecnologia viável e escalável no contexto brasileiro. A experiência federal iniciada em 2023 com o sandbox regulatório na BR-101, no Rio de Janeiro, oferece dados concretos que dissiparam parte do ceticismo que cercava o modelo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA inadimplência, que nos primeiros meses oscilou entre 5% e 10%, foi reduzida para cerca de 3% com programas estruturados de comunicação. Esse dado é relevante não apenas pela magnitude da queda, mas pelo que revela sobre a curva de aprendizado: a resistência inicial ao free flow tende a ser comportamental, não estrutural, e a responder a estratégias de engajamento bem desenhadas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA aprovação pela ANTT de resolução para cobrança por quilômetro rodado em vias expressas representa um salto qualitativo. A possibilidade de tarifação dinâmica - variando por tipo de veículo e trecho utilizado - introduz no setor rodoviário uma lógica já consolidada em outros segmentos e que pode trazer benefícios ao usuário, de pagar pelo que realmente utiliza, e também em termos de redução de congestionamentos em praças de pedágio e descarbonização (por redução de frenagens e acelerações).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F03_BRINF_Highways_Concessions_GRI_Body_2026_4_15_17_40_13_1776274813.webp\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"28574\">Guilherme Sampaio\u003C\u002Fspan>, diretor-geral da ANTT, participou da mesa-redonda (Foto: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara as concessionárias, isso significa a possibilidade de construir modelos de receita mais sofisticados, menos dependentes de volume bruto de tráfego e mais sensíveis à gestão inteligente da demanda. Para o regulador, abre-se um campo de incentivos que pode alinhar rentabilidade privada com eficiência pública de maneira inédita.\r\n\u003Ch2>Inteligência artificial\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nOutro vetor de transformação é a aplicação de inteligência artificial nos centros de controle operacional. A substituição do monitoramento humano de imagens por sistemas automatizados de detecção e despacho de recursos já é realidade em concessionárias de referência.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nO impacto operacional é significativo. Sistemas baseados em visão computacional identificam incidentes, veículos parados, objetos na pista e condições climáticas adversas com velocidade e consistência superiores à capacidade humana. O despacho automatizado de recursos, como guinchos, ambulâncias e equipes de manutenção reduz o tempo de resposta e, consequentemente, o risco de acidentes secundários e a extensão de congestionamentos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA leitura estratégica que prevalece vai além da eficiência operacional imediata. A inteligência artificial embarcada nas operações rodoviárias gera dados granulares sobre padrões de uso, comportamento de tráfego e desempenho da infraestrutura que podem alimentar modelos preditivos de manutenção, calibrar investimentos de ampliação de capacidade e fundamentar revisões contratuais baseadas em evidências.\r\n\u003Ch2>Custo de capital e competição global por investimentos\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nA sofisticação setorial não ocorre em vácuo macroeconômico. O nível elevado da taxa de juros no Brasil (e no mundo) é apontado como variável que exige incorporação explícita nas modelagens regulatórias. Contratos desenhados em ambientes de juros baixos podem se tornar inviáveis quando o custo de capital se eleva de forma persistente, e o setor precisa de mecanismos que absorvam essa volatilidade sem transferir risco excessivo ao concessionário nem ao membro da sociedade que utiliza a via.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA pressão sobre a cadeia de suprimentos adiciona uma camada de complexidade. Conflitos geopolíticos, restrições logísticas e a demanda simultânea de múltiplos setores de infraestrutura competem pelos mesmos insumos, equipamentos e mão de obra especializada. Com R$ 260 bilhões em investimentos contratados e um pipeline de 13 projetos previstos para 2026, a capacidade de execução torna-se tão crítica quanto a capacidade de modelagem.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA competição por capital global impõe uma disciplina adicional. Investidores internacionais comparam o pipeline brasileiro com oportunidades na Europa, nos Estados Unidos, no Chile e na própria América Latina. Manter atratividade relativa exige projetos bem estruturados e, de modo especial, previsibilidade regulatória, segurança jurídica e retornos ajustados ao risco que se sustentem ao longo de contratos longos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002F01_BRINF_Highways_Concessions_GRI_Body_2026_4_15_17_40_13_1776274813.webp\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">A reunião também contou com a presença de \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"34438\">Viviane Esse\u003C\u002Fspan>, secretária nacional de Transportes Rodoviários (Foto: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch2>Crescimento demanda capacidade institucional\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nA expansão do parque de concessões federais - de 12 mil quilômetros em 2021 para 16 mil em 2025, com projeção de 19 mil em 2026 e 25 mil no ano seguinte - é um dado que impressiona pela magnitude, mas que também expõe gargalos estruturais.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA ANTT, como regulador, vem evoluindo na sua capacidade de regulação, fiscalização, análise técnica e gestão contratual. Da mesma forma, bancos têm ampliado suas equipes de project finance e evoluído nos modelos de avaliação de risco, processo que deve seguir em maturação. Por outro lado, cada vez mais se vê escassez de profissionais seniores na área de engenharia, por exemplo, e a cadeia de suprimentos opera próxima de seus limites.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA evolução da política de concessões já permite desenhar projetos com volumes de tráfego menores, possibilitando que regiões cresçam junto com a infraestrutura, e não apenas depois dela. Essa mudança de paradigma exige contratos adaptativos, com gatilhos de investimento vinculados a indicadores de demanda real, e uma regulação capaz de acompanhar essa dinâmica sem engessamento.\r\n\u003Ch2>O próximo ciclo: maturidade como vantagem competitiva\u003C\u002Fh2>\r\nA mensagem é inequívoca: o setor de concessões rodoviárias brasileiro não precisa de mais provas de conceito, e sim continuar sua jornada de sofisticação para transformar a maturidade acumulada em vantagem competitiva sustentável.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nIsso significa contratos que incorporem incentivos à inovação operacional, além de metas de obras físicas; regulação em constante aprimoramento; tecnologia que deixe de ser diferencial e passe a ser requisito contratual; e, sobretudo, uma mentalidade que reconheça que o verdadeiro oceano azul das rodovias está na profundidade de valor, eficiência e benefício social que se pode extrair de cada quilômetro concedido.","\u003Cul>\r\n\t\u003Cli>O parque de concessões federais caminha para duplicar em poucos anos - de 12 mil quilômetros em 2021 para uma projeção de 25 mil quilômetros até 2027. O setor entra numa nova era, de foco em eficiência sistêmica, qualidade de serviço e previsibilidade de retornos como vetores de diferenciação. \u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\t\u003Cli>O free flow já demonstrou viabilidade concreta no Brasil: a inadimplência na experiência federal iniciada em 2023 na BR-101 caiu de patamares entre 5% e 10% para cerca de 3%.\u003C\u002Fli>\r\n\u003C\u002Ful>\r\n","Concessões rodoviárias crescem e amadurecem no Brasil","infraestrutura, rodovias, concessões","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F00_BRINF_Highways_Concessions_Unsplash_Social_2026_4_15_14_55_05_1776275705.jpg","2026-04-15T14:44:21.000Z","2026-04-17T17:49:14.000Z",{"code":18},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1472},[1473,1475,1477],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1474},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1476},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1478},{"code":23},[1480],{"id":101,"label":1403,"translations":1481},[1482,1484,1486],{"label":1403,"slug":1414,"language":1483},{"code":13},{"label":1417,"slug":1418,"language":1485},{"code":18},{"label":1421,"slug":1422,"language":1487},{"code":23},[1489],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1490},"BR",[1492],{"name":1493,"slug":1494,"image":1495,"order":115},"Henrique Cisman","henrique-cisman","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FHenrique_Marcal_Cisman_GRI_Institute_Profile_PIC_2025_11_04_11_31_12_1762266672.jpg",{"pt-BR":1497},"\u002Finfraestrutura\u002Fconcessoes-rodoviarias-crescem-e-amadurecem-em-meio-a-desafios-e-inovacoes",[1499,1500,1501,1502,1503,1504],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]