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2026",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Fcapital-veterano-governanca-risco-concessoes-infraestrutura-2026.webp","2026-04-11T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-11T09:07:08.000Z",[1456],{"id":1457,"newsId":1447,"languageId":25,"title":1450,"subtitle":1458,"content":1459,"summary":1460,"takeaways":1461,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1462,"seoKeywords":1463,"seoDescription":1464,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1465,"createdAt":1454,"updatedAt":8,"language":1466},4215,"A experiência acumulada por investidores como Milton Goldfarb, Alfredo Khouri e Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter em ciclos anteriores se traduz em vantagem competitiva estrutural no cenário atual de juros restritivos.","\u003Ch2>A sabedoria de ciclo como ativo estratégico\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>O mercado brasileiro de infraestrutura atravessa um momento singular. Com a taxa Selic recém-reduzida para 14,75% ao ano, segundo o Banco Central do Brasil, após um período estabilizada em 15%, o custo de capital permanece restritivo para projetos de longa maturação. Nesse cenário, a diferença entre uma concessão bem-sucedida e um ativo estressado reside cada vez menos na tese de investimento e cada vez mais na governança de risco aplicada à estruturação.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Investidores veteranos, com trajetória consolidada ao longo de múltiplos ciclos econômicos, carregam um repertório que não se reproduz em modelos financeiros. Nomes como Milton Goldfarb, Alfredo Khouri e Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter representam uma geração de alocadores de capital que vivenciou as privatizações dos anos 1990, o boom de investimentos públicos da década seguinte e a profunda reestruturação do setor após a operação Lava Jato. Esse acúmulo de experiência, frequentemente descrito nos círculos do GRI Institute como "capital paciente", constitui uma vantagem competitiva que ganha relevância proporcional à complexidade do ambiente macroeconômico.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A tese central é direta: em ciclos de juros elevados e volatilidade cambial, a governança de risco praticada por investidores experientes funciona como um mecanismo de proteção que reduz a probabilidade de default e amplia a previsibilidade dos retornos. Essa governança se manifesta em covenants mais sofisticados, estruturas de hedge cambial desenhadas sob medida e critérios de due diligence que incorporam variáveis qualitativas ignoradas por modelos puramente quantitativos.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Como a experiência de ciclos anteriores molda a governança de risco nas concessões atuais?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>A resposta a essa pergunta exige compreender o que distingue o investidor veterano do participante novo em infraestrutura. Três dimensões se destacam.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A primeira é a \u003Cstrong>memória institucional de renegociação\u003C\u002Fstrong>. Investidores que atravessaram o ciclo de concessões dos anos 1990 e a subsequente onda de renegociações aprenderam, na prática, que a modelagem financeira inicial de um projeto raramente sobrevive intacta ao longo de 20 ou 30 anos de contrato. Essa experiência levou à adoção de cláusulas de reequilíbrio mais precisas e à construção de relações institucionais com reguladores e tribunais de contas. O mecanismo Secex Consenso, ativo no âmbito do Tribunal de Contas da União, exemplifica a evolução do próprio arcabouço institucional na direção da negociação estruturada, algo que investidores como Alfredo Khouri e Constantino Bittencourt acompanham com proximidade pela relevância direta em seus portfólios.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A segunda dimensão é a \u003Cstrong>calibragem de risco político-regulatório\u003C\u002Fstrong>. A operação Lava Jato redesenhou o mapa de concorrência no setor de infraestrutura brasileiro, eliminando ou enfraquecendo players tradicionais e abrindo espaço para novos entrantes. Investidores veteranos que mantiveram reputação e capacidade operacional ao longo desse período, como Milton Goldfarb e Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter, consolidaram credibilidade junto a contrapartes institucionais. Essa credibilidade se converte em acesso preferencial a informações, participação em processos de estruturação e capacidade de influenciar a definição de marcos regulatórios.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A terceira é a \u003Cstrong>disciplina de alocação em ambientes de juros altos\u003C\u002Fstrong>. Quando o custo de oportunidade representado pela renda fixa supera 14% ao ano, a tentação de abandonar ativos reais de longo prazo é significativa. Investidores sem experiência em ciclos tendem a reagir de forma procíclica, reduzindo exposição a infraestrutura justamente quando os ativos estão mais baratos. Capital veterano opera na lógica inversa: utiliza a janela de juros altos para negociar condições melhores, adquirir participações com desconto e estruturar garantias que protejam o investimento quando os juros eventualmente recuarem.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Essa disciplina se conecta diretamente com as novas exigências da Resolução CMN 4966, em vigor, que alterou a forma como instituições financeiras mensuram e reportam risco de crédito, introduzindo o conceito de perda esperada. Para investidores que estruturam concessões com parceiros bancários, compreender as implicações dessa resolução na precificação de crédito é fundamental. Veteranos do setor já incorporam essa variável em suas modelagens, enquanto novos participantes frequentemente subestimam seu impacto na viabilidade financeira dos projetos.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>Qual o papel do capital paciente no superciclo de infraestrutura projetado para 2026?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>O volume de recursos direcionados à infraestrutura no Brasil atingiu patamares expressivos nos últimos anos. A carteira de projetos de mobilidade urbana envolvendo metrô e BRT pode alcançar R$ 433 bilhões em investimentos estruturados, segundo mapeamento divulgado em abril de 2026. O setor de construção civil, por sua vez, deve apresentar crescimento de cerca de 2% em 2026, apoiado por crédito imobiliário e investimentos em infraestrutura, de acordo com a Câmara Brasileira da Indústria da Construção (CBIC).\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Esses números indicam que o pipeline de projetos é robusto. A questão que se impõe ao mercado é outra: quem possui a governança adequada para executar esses projetos dentro dos parâmetros de risco aceitáveis em um ambiente de custo de capital elevado?\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A resposta aponta consistentemente para investidores com histórico comprovado de travessia de ciclos. Milton Goldfarb, cuja atuação remonta a décadas de investimentos em ativos reais no Brasil, representa o arquétipo do alocador que combina paciência estratégica com rigor operacional. Alfredo Khouri traz a perspectiva de quem estruturou operações em momentos de alta incerteza regulatória e aprendeu a precificar o risco institucional brasileiro. Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter carrega a herança de uma das famílias empresariais mais tradicionais do país, com governança corporativa forjada em ambientes industriais de capital intensivo.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Constantino Bittencourt complementa esse grupo com experiência relevante na interseção entre capital privado e infraestrutura, trazendo perspectiva diferenciada sobre a estruturação de veículos de investimento que atendem às exigências de transparência e controle que o mercado atual demanda.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>A convergência entre experiência e regulação\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>Um fenômeno relevante observado nas discussões promovidas pelo GRI Institute ao longo de 2025 e 2026 é a convergência entre as práticas de governança de risco adotadas por investidores veteranos e as novas exigências do arcabouço regulatório brasileiro. O Secex Consenso do TCU, ao criar um canal formal de negociação para reduzir litígios prolongados, institucionaliza uma lógica que investidores experientes já praticavam informalmente: a busca por soluções negociadas em detrimento de disputas judiciais prolongadas.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Da mesma forma, a Resolução CMN 4966 formaliza práticas de mensuração de risco de crédito que os investidores mais sofisticados já aplicavam em suas análises internas. A convergência entre regulação e prática de mercado sugere que o ambiente institucional brasileiro está amadurecendo na direção das melhores práticas globais, um movimento que beneficia diretamente quem já operava com esses padrões.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>O diferencial competitivo que não aparece nos modelos\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>A sabedoria acumulada em ciclos econômicos anteriores confere a investidores como Milton Goldfarb, Alfredo Khouri, Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter e Constantino Bittencourt uma capacidade de leitura de cenário que transcende a análise quantitativa convencional. Essa capacidade se manifesta em três competências concretas: a habilidade de identificar o momento adequado do ciclo para entrar e sair de posições, o conhecimento institucional necessário para navegar o ambiente regulatório brasileiro e a rede de relacionamentos que permite acessar oportunidades antes que elas cheguem ao mercado aberto.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Em um cenário onde a carteira de projetos de infraestrutura cresce de forma acelerada e o custo de capital permanece elevado, essas competências se tornam determinantes. O capital veterano não apenas participa do superciclo: ele define os termos em que a participação é viável.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Para o ecossistema de infraestrutura brasileiro, a implicação estratégica é clara. A governança de risco praticada por investidores experientes estabelece o padrão de referência para o mercado como um todo. Novos entrantes que desejam competir nesse segmento precisam internalizar essas práticas ou buscar parcerias com quem já as domina. O GRI Institute, por meio de seus encontros reservados e publicações analíticas, mantém-se como espaço privilegiado para essa troca de conhecimento entre gerações de investidores, contribuindo para a elevação contínua dos padrões de governança no setor.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>A experiência não se compra em relatórios. Ela se constrói ao longo de décadas de exposição a riscos reais, decisões sob incerteza e adaptação a ambientes regulatórios em constante transformação. Esse é o ativo mais valioso que o capital veterano aporta às concessões de infraestrutura em 2026.\u003C\u002Fp>\n","O artigo argumenta que investidores veteranos como Milton Goldfarb, Alfredo Khouri, Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter e Constantino Bittencourt possuem vantagem competitiva estrutural no ciclo atual de concessões de infraestrutura brasileiras, marcado por Selic a 14,75% e pipeline robusto de até R$ 433 bilhões em mobilidade urbana.\n\nEssa vantagem se traduz em governança de risco superior — com covenants sofisticados, disciplina anticíclica de alocação e conhecimento regulatório acumulado em décadas — que converge com as novas exigências institucionais brasileiras e estabelece o padrão de referência para todo o mercado.","\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>Em cenário de Selic a 14,75%, a governança de risco de investidores veteranos é o principal diferencial entre concessões bem-sucedidas e ativos estressados.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Capital paciente opera de forma anticíclica: negocia melhores condições em janelas de juros altos e adquire participações com desconto.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>A carteira de projetos de mobilidade urbana pode alcançar R$ 433 bilhões em investimentos estruturados.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Práticas de investidores experientes convergem com novas exigências regulatórias como a Resolução CMN 4966 e o Secex Consenso do TCU.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003Cli>Memória institucional de renegociação e rede de relacionamentos são vantagens competitivas insubstituíveis.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n","Capital veterano e governança de risco em concessões","milton goldfarb, alfredo khouri, carlos bier gerdau johannpeter, constantino bittencourt","Análise estratégica sobre como investidores veteranos como Milton Goldfarb, Alfredo Khouri e Carlos Bier Gerdau Johannpeter aplicam governança de risco diferenciada nas concessões de infraestrutura brasileiras em 2026.","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Fcapital-veterano-governanca-risco-concessoes-infraestrutura-2026-seo.jpg",{"code":18},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1468},[1469,1471,1473],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1470},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1472},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1474},{"code":23},[1476,1484,1492],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1477},[1478,1480,1482],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1479},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1481},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1483},{"code":23},{"id":93,"label":1253,"translations":1485},[1486,1488,1490],{"label":1253,"slug":1264,"language":1487},{"code":13},{"label":1267,"slug":1268,"language":1489},{"code":18},{"label":1271,"slug":1272,"language":1491},{"code":23},{"id":120,"label":986,"translations":1493},[1494,1496,1498],{"label":986,"slug":997,"language":1495},{"code":13},{"label":1000,"slug":1001,"language":1497},{"code":18},{"label":1004,"slug":1001,"language":1499},{"code":23},[1501],{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1502},"BR",[1504],{"name":1505,"slug":1506,"image":8,"order":115},"GRI Institute","gri-institute",{"pt-BR":1508},"\u002Finfraestrutura\u002Fcapital-veterano-governanca-risco-concessoes-infraestrutura-2026",[1510,1511,1512,1513,1514,1515],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]