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estabilidad",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_04_[7]_2025_2_07_16_25_38_1738956338.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_02_[7]_2025_2_07_16_25_38_1738956338.webp","2025-02-07T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: GRI Institute","#0000","2025-02-14T00:00:00.000Z",4971,"2025-02-07T15:49:56.000Z","2025-11-18T14:09:49.000Z",[1462],{"id":1463,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1464,"content":1465,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":1466,"seoTag":1467,"seoTitle":1450,"seoKeywords":1467,"seoDescription":1464,"seoAbstract":978,"seoImage":1468,"createdAt":1469,"updatedAt":1470,"language":1471},2565,"Meta inflacionaria alcanzada después de cuatro años; mercado de vivienda de lujo se destaca","Perú inicia 2025 en un escenario de relativa estabilidad económica, impulsado por la aceleración de inversiones en infraestructura, como el desarrollo del Megapuerto de Chancay, mejoras en el mercado laboral y estabilidad en los precios.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPor otro lado, el año preelectoral representa el principal factor de incertidumbre, con el potencial de generar inestabilidad en el entorno empresarial y reducir la confianza de los inversionistas. Otro riesgo relevante es el impacto de la política económica proteccionista de Estados Unidos en el segundo mandato del presidente Donald Trump.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAsí lo señala Guillermo Arbe, Economista Jefe de Scotiabank - Perú, al compartir sus proyecciones macroeconómicas y su visión sobre el panorama inmobiliario del país en 2025 durante una reunión privada con miembros de \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> Latam. El encuentro, realizado en el Museo de Arte de Lima (MALI), fue moderado por \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"2907\">Pepe Palma\u003C\u002Fspan>, General Director de illusione, desarrollador inmobiliario en el segmento boutique del mercado inmobiliario premium.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FIMG_1376_2_2025_2_07_19_08_36_1738955316.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Guillermo Arbe (Scotiabank - Perú) lidera sesión que proyecta el Perú hacia 2025 (imagen: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Economía nacional con signos de estabilidad\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nDurante la presentación, se proyectó un crecimiento del PIB del 2,8% en 2025, una ligera desaceleración respecto a 2024, cuando la economía creció un 3,2%. Sin embargo, el primer trimestre de 2025 podría registrar un ritmo más dinámico, con tasas de crecimiento entre 3,8% y 4%, reflejando la resiliencia de la economía peruana frente a las incertidumbres globales y domésticas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa demanda interna, principal motor de la economía, crecería un 3% en 2025, impulsada por el consumo privado (2,6%). El consumo público, en cambio, mostraría una desaceleración con un crecimiento del 2,1%, reflejando una menor expansión fiscal.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa inflación cerró 2024 dentro de la meta del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, en un 2%, marcando la primera vez en cuatro años que se mantiene dentro de los parámetros establecidos. Para 2025, se espera un leve aumento al 2,3%, aún dentro del objetivo inflacionario, reflejando una política monetaria más ajustada y menor presión sobre los precios.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa tasa de interés, actualmente en 4,75%, podría reducirse a 4,50%, facilitando el acceso al crédito y dinamizando el sector inmobiliario. Asimismo, se prevé estabilidad cambiaria, con una cotización del dólar en 3,78 soles peruanos al cierre de 2025, brindando previsibilidad a los agentes económicos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FCaptura_de_tela_2025_02_05_121029_2025_2_07_19_09_42_1738955382.png\" style=\"width:55%\" \u002F>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDesde el punto de vista de la infraestructura, dos sectores destacan como pilares de desarrollo: el Megapuerto de Chancay, que fortalecerá la competitividad del país en el comercio exterior y consolidará su posición como un hub logístico en América del Sur; y la minería, que enfrenta el desafío del avance de la minería ilegal.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn 2024, el volumen de exportaciones de oro creció un 12%, pero gran parte de este incremento proviene de operaciones fuera del control oficial. De las 1.073 empresas exportadoras de oro, solo 44 están registradas como productoras, lo que evidencia la fuerte presencia de la informalidad en el sector.\r\n\u003Ch3>Segmento residencial de lujo en auge en Perú\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nEl sector residencial también fue un tema clave en el encuentro. La venta de viviendas en Lima creció un 28% entre enero y octubre de 2024. Las transacciones de viviendas nuevas superaron las 1.800 unidades en el último año, mientras que la venta de propiedades de alto valor alcanzó las 2.400. Según Scotiabank, la dinámica del mercado tiende hacia niveles de población de mayores ingresos. En cuanto a la vivienda social, el programa “Nuevo Crédito Mivivienda” permitió el acceso a 800 unidades habitacionales.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FCaptura_de_tela_2025_02_05_120837_2025_2_07_19_17_54_1738955874.png\" style=\"width:60%\" \u002F>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLos segmentos de vivienda social y de alto valor siguen dinámicas distintas. Según la presentación, las ventas de propiedades de alto valor serán el principal motor del crecimiento del sector en 2025, mientras que el mercado de vivienda social avanza a un ritmo más moderado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa recuperación del empleo y el aumento del ingreso real favorecen al segmento premium, que se beneficia de una mayor disponibilidad de crédito y de la valorización inmobiliaria. Por esta razón, la venta de viviendas en Lima mantendría un ritmo positivo, con un crecimiento proyectado del 10% en 2025.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCabe destacar que la oferta de crédito hipotecario creció un 10% en el número de nuevos financiamientos entre enero y octubre de 2024, mientras que el volumen de recursos destinados al sector aumentó un 14%, con más de 3.000 créditos concedidos en el período. En consecuencia, el saldo total de créditos hipotecarios registró un incremento del 5%, y la tendencia para 2025 apunta a un nuevo aumento del 6%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa tasa de crédito hipotecario mostró una leve reducción en el último año, cerrando en 8,23%. Esta tasa corresponde al promedio de los últimos 30 días de cada período analizado. Este comportamiento refleja la reducción gradual de las tasas de interés, que facilita el financiamiento habitacional. Sin embargo, existen indicios de que las tasas podrían estabilizarse, lo que ralentizaría el crecimiento del crédito a mediano plazo.\r\n\u003Cdiv> \u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\nOtro indicador relevante para el sector fue la disminución de la morosidad en los créditos hipotecarios, que cerró 2024 en 2,9%, retornando a los niveles previos a la pandemia. Este escenario refleja una mayor capacidad de pago de las familias peruanas, impulsada por la estabilidad macroeconómica y el crecimiento del ingreso real.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSi se mantienen las condiciones macroeconómicas actuales y los planes estratégicos de inversión en los sectores residencial e infraestructura, Perú tiene el potencial de consolidarse como uno de los mercados más atractivos de América Latina en 2025.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevents?segment=2&region=3\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FWhatsApp_Image_2025_02_07_at_16.15.05_2025_2_07_19_15_15_1738955715.jpeg\" style=\"border-radius:20px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>","Articulo","Perú: proyecciones económicas para 2025 sugieren estabilidad\r\n","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_01_[8]_2025_2_07_16_25_09_1738956309.jpg","2025-02-07T15:51:41.000Z","2025-11-18T14:09:43.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1473},[1474,1476,1478],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1475},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1477},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1479},{"code":23},[1481,1489],{"id":47,"label":1297,"translations":1482},[1483,1485,1487],{"label":1297,"slug":1308,"language":1484},{"code":13},{"label":1311,"slug":1312,"language":1486},{"code":18},{"label":1315,"slug":1316,"language":1488},{"code":23},{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1490},[1491,1493,1495],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1492},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1494},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1496},{"code":23},[1498],{"name":676,"enName":676,"ptName":676,"iso2":1499},"PE",[1501],{"name":1502,"slug":1503,"image":1504,"order":115},"Paulo Alfaro","paulo-alfaro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FPaulo_Alfaro_GRI_Institute_Profile_Pic_2025_11_04_10_47_53_1762264073.jpg",{"es":1506},"\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fperu-proyecciones-economicas-para-2025-sugieren-estabilidad",[1508,1509,1510,1511,1512,1513],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]