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",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_04_[8]_2025_2_12_09_43_47_1739364227.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_02_[8]_2025_2_12_09_43_47_1739364227.webp","2025-02-12T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: Freepik","#0000","2025-02-20T00:00:00.000Z",2920,"2025-02-12T09:43:47.000Z","2025-11-18T14:10:27.000Z",[1462],{"id":1463,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1464,"content":1465,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":1466,"seoTag":1467,"seoTitle":1468,"seoKeywords":1469,"seoDescription":1464,"seoAbstract":978,"seoImage":1470,"createdAt":1471,"updatedAt":1472,"language":1473},2569,"Análisis del BBVA sobre el país considera las iniciativas de Sheinbaum y las consecuencias del segundo mandato de Trump","México atraviesa un momento decisivo en su panorama político y económico con la llegada del nuevo gobierno de Claudia Sheinbaum. Aunque la reducción proyectada de las tasas de interés podría estimular las inversiones, aún persisten desafíos estructurales, como las reformas constitucionales y las limitaciones en el sector energético, que deben superarse para garantizar un crecimiento sostenible. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa incertidumbre regulatoria, ejemplificada por la reforma judicial, genera preocupaciones sobre la seguridad jurídica y la previsibilidad de los negocios, factores esenciales para la atracción de capital extranjero.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAdemás, la relación comercial con Estados Unidos sigue siendo un punto de atención, ya que posibles cambios en la política exterior estadounidense podrían impactar tanto al peso mexicano como a la dinámica de la asociación bilateral. Estos desafíos fueron debatidos en una reunión privada en México, donde Creel, García-Cuéllar, Aiza y Enríquez fue co-host.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDurante el encuentro, Carlos Serrano, Economista Jefe de BBVA México, proyectó el panorama económico del país para 2025, destacando el impacto de estas variables en sectores estratégicos como el inmobiliario y el de infraestructura. La reunión reunió a importantes tomadores de decisiones de empresas de ambos sectores.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FMOS00402_2025_2_12_12_46_37_1739364397.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Carlos Serrano (BBVA - Mexico) lidera el debate con la moderación de Carlos Aiza (Creel, García-Cuéllar, Aiza y Enríquez) (Imagen: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>).\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Espacio fiscal reducido marca el inicio de la nueva administración en México\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa reunión privada comenzó con un análisis del panorama político y económico de México, destacando las directrices del nuevo gobierno de Claudia Sheinbaum para garantizar la estabilidad macroeconómica del país.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSegún BBVA, la administración federal se compromete a mantener la autonomía del Banco de México (Banxico). El banco inició un ciclo de reducción de tasas de interés, bajándolas al 10% en diciembre de 2024, con la expectativa de que caigan al 8% para finales de 2025. La inflación subyacente cerró 2024 en 3,7%, regresando a niveles prepandemia (2019), y la previsión para 2025 es una inflación general de aproximadamente 3,5%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn el ámbito fiscal, la nueva administración busca una consolidación presupuestaria, con un déficit público proyectado en el 3% del PIB y un superávit primario del 0,4%. El gobierno prioriza la austeridad fiscal y la digitalización, con un enfoque en la simplificación tributaria y el fortalecimiento de la recaudación entre los grandes contribuyentes.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSin embargo, la limitación del margen fiscal sigue siendo un reto, dado que es necesario ampliar las inversiones sociales y mantener el apoyo a Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos) en un contexto de fondos de contingencia agotados.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn la última década, el espacio fiscal del país se ha reducido, reflejando el aumento del gasto obligatorio en el presupuesto federal. Ante esta restricción, los participantes del encuentro consideraron esencial ampliar la participación del sector privado en la inversión pública a través de asociaciones público-privadas (APPs).\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl "Plan México" surge como una oportunidad para viabilizar esta colaboración. La iniciativa, anunciada por el gobierno, contará con un portafolio de USD 277 mil millones distribuidos en 2.000 proyectos. Entre sus objetivos estratégicos, el plan busca posicionar a México entre las diez mayores economías del mundo, aumentar la inversión como porcentaje del PIB a más del 25% y generar 1,5 millones de nuevos empleos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara un player presente, el Plan México podría aumentar el interés del inversionista privado, especialmente en infraestructura: “El país necesita infraestructura y el gobierno no puede desarrollarla; no hay espacio fiscal. Espero que pronto se creen mecanismos adecuados para ello”, comenta.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nTambién se esperan buenas oportunidades en el sector energético, impulsadas por la transición energética y la expansión de la capacidad de autoabastecimiento eléctrico hasta 20 MW. Este avance podría atraer nuevas fábricas y parques industriales, reduciendo los cuellos de botella energéticos que históricamente han limitado el crecimiento de algunos sectores. Esto fomentaría el desarrollo de polos de producción y corredores industriales, fortaleciendo un segmento que registró 2 millones de m² comercializados y un aumento del 5% en 2024, según CBRE.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn este contexto, Claudia Sheinbaum continúa promoviendo el nearshoring en el país. Ante la posibilidad de que Donald Trump imponga aranceles de hasta el 25% sobre las exportaciones mexicanas, el gobierno ofrecerá incentivos para que las empresas trasladen sus operaciones de manufactura a México, equilibrando la ecuación. Como parte de esta estrategia, se emitió un decreto presidencial que concede deducciones fiscales de hasta el 91% para inversiones en activos fijos, con beneficios adicionales vigentes hasta 2026.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa discusión también abordó la importancia de que México adopte una postura diplomática pragmática frente a Estados Unidos para preservar su relación comercial. Asimismo, está en debate la posible imposición de restricciones a la inversión china en el país, especialmente en sectores estratégicos como la industria automotriz y la infraestructura.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nOtro factor que podría estimular el interés de los inversionistas privados es el crecimiento de los salarios reales, que ha sostenido el consumo y fortalecido el mercado interno. Este contexto abre nuevas oportunidades para el sector residencial, donde se prevé la construcción de 125 mil nuevas viviendas y la realización de 100 mil mejoras habitacionales por parte del gobierno en 2025.\r\n\u003Ch3>Reformas generan preocupación entre los inversionistas inmobiliarios\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSi bien algunas iniciativas generan optimismo, aún no son suficientes para restablecer plenamente la confianza de los inversionistas. Las elecciones de 2024 dejaron incertidumbres que han afectado la asignación de capital, especialmente en relación con las reformas constitucionales en curso.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa inseguridad regulatoria sigue siendo un obstáculo importante para las inversiones a largo plazo, agravada por el debate en torno a la reforma judicial. El sector empresarial ha expresado su preocupación por la posible reducción de la independencia del Poder Judicial, lo que podría afectar la previsibilidad de las decisiones legales y la seguridad jurídica.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEste clima de incertidumbre se refleja en las proyecciones macroeconómicas de BBVA para 2025. Según el banco, México enfrentará una desaceleración de la actividad económica, influenciada por la contracción del PIB en el último trimestre de 2024 y el debilitamiento de la inversión.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn el sector de la construcción, por ejemplo, hubo una desaceleración notable en 2024. El Indicador Mensual de Actividad Industrial (IMAI) del Inegi registró un crecimiento acumulado de solo 6,3% en septiembre, la mitad de lo registrado en el mismo período de 2023 (12,4%). Además, el empleo formal en la construcción cayó un 4,6% en noviembre, marcando tres meses consecutivos de descenso, consolidando a este sector como el más frágil dentro del mercado laboral formal, según datos del IMSS.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nComo se mencionó anteriormente, la imposición de aranceles del 25% sobre bienes finales e intermedios sin una represalia por parte de México es otra fuente de preocupación. Según BBVA, esta medida podría reducir el PIB mexicano en 2,5 puntos porcentuales, resultando en una caída del 1,5% en la actividad económica en 2025.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn cuanto al tipo de cambio, si EE.UU. implementa aranceles del 10% sobre productos mexicanos, el peso podría llegar a 20,7 por dólar. Con aranceles del 25%, la depreciación sería aún mayor, alcanzando los 23,1 pesos por dólar. No obstante, en un escenario sin nuevas barreras comerciales, se espera que el tipo de cambio se estabilice en torno a 19,5 pesos por dólar.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLos miembros de \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> Latam esperan la evolución de estos temas para evaluar cómo México se posicionará ante los desafíos y cuáles serán las implicaciones para las inversiones en el país.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevents?segment=2&region=3\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FREClubBR22_Banner_Fixo_Hub_Pro_ximos_Eventos_banner_[2]_2025_2_12_14_01_55_1739368915.jpg\" style=\"border-radius:15px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n ","Report","Reformas en México\r\nPolítica exterior en México \r\nClaudia Sheinbaum \r\nTrump en México \r\n","México enfrenta incertidumbres en 2025","Reformas en México\r\nPolítica exterior en México \r\nClaudia Sheinbaum \r\nTrump en México ","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_01_[9]_2025_2_12_09_46_26_1739364386.jpg","2025-02-12T09:43:53.000Z","2025-11-18T14:10:33.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1475},[1476,1478,1480],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1477},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1479},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1481},{"code":23},[1483,1491],{"id":47,"label":1297,"translations":1484},[1485,1487,1489],{"label":1297,"slug":1308,"language":1486},{"code":13},{"label":1311,"slug":1312,"language":1488},{"code":18},{"label":1315,"slug":1316,"language":1490},{"code":23},{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1492},[1493,1495,1497],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1494},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1496},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1498},{"code":23},[1500],{"name":567,"enName":567,"ptName":567,"iso2":1501},"MX",[1503],{"name":1504,"slug":1505,"image":1506,"order":115},"Paulo Alfaro","paulo-alfaro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FPaulo_Alfaro_GRI_Institute_Profile_Pic_2025_11_04_10_47_53_1762264073.jpg",{"es":1508},"\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fmexico-enfrenta-incertidumbre-ante-reformas-y-politica-exterior",[1510,1511,1512,1513,1514,1515],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]