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",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSlider_Hub_2022_3_14_14_28_07_1647278887.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FCover_2022_3_14_14_16_25_1647278185.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FTop_Hub_2022_3_14_14_28_07_1647278887.jpg","2022-03-17T00:00:00.000Z","Hans Eiskonen \u002F Unsplash","#FFFFFF","Latinoamérica: vivienda en tiempos de inflación y guerra","vivienda, residencial","Una proyección detallada sobre la evolución del Sector Residencial en Latinoamérica con la alta inflación y la invasión de Putin","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002FSocial_2022_3_14_14_21_24_1647278484.jpg",1786,"2022-03-14T13:32:23.000Z","2025-11-14T13:22:42.000Z",[1466],{"id":1467,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1468,"content":1469,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":978,"seoKeywords":978,"seoDescription":978,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},1882,"Hugo Perea aborda la situación inflacionaria, Josef Preschel interpreta el progreso de la vivienda; ve la proyección detallada","\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Estados Unidos convive con los mayores niveles de inflación de los últimos 40 años, además de una expansión monetaria sin precedentes en 2020, superando los estímulos desencadenados por las crisis financieras de 2008 y 2009.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"17094\">Hugo Perea\u003C\u002Fspan>, Chief Economist de BBVA Research Perú, alertó sobre el desafiante escenario en Latinoamérica en una entrevista concedida a GRI el 23 de febrero, un día antes de la invasión rusa sobre Ucrania. En aquel momento, el economista proyectó el comportamiento de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos ante las presiones inflacionistas, anunciando que habría "6 subidas de tasas de la FED durante el año”. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl análisis se complementó con las tensiones vividas en Europa del Este, que, 24 horas después de la entrevista, se materializaron con el inicio de la guerra entre los países mencionados. Hugo previó el conflicto (que llegaría a producirse) en el momento de ejemplificar la imprevisibilidad que podría interferir en el rendimiento del mercado. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“La parte geopolítica en Europa del Este puede complicar algunas cosas, pero haciéndose un poco al lado, en general los mercados están anticipando eso. Cuando no hay sorpresas, tu no ves turbulencias, porque eso ya está cotizado en los precios de los activos, en los bonos, en las monedas. Ya está interiorizada esa posibilidad”, comentó. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>Asiste el análisis completo: \u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cdiv class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"height:0; overflow:hidden; padding-bottom:56.25%; padding-top:30px; position:relative\">\u003Ciframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.youtube.com\u002Fembed\u002FR-sqhjgBHn0?rel=0\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%\" width=\"640\">\u003C\u002Fiframe>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Como se ha señalado, las turbulencias sí han cambiado el diagnóstico económico en América Latina. El 11\u002F03, el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) informó que la invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia empeorará la situación inflacionaria en el territorio latinoamericano, debido a la presión que la guerra está generando sobre los precios de la energía, además de implicar riesgos para el abastecimiento de la región. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">Proyecciones y dudas que surgen sobre la vivienda\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Pero, ¿y el sector residencial, cómo se desempeñará tras este escenario? Conversamos con \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fmember-profile\u002Freal-estate\u002Flatam\u002Fjosef-preschel_646.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"646\">Josef Preschel\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fa>, Managing Director & Founder de \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fcompany-profile\u002Freal-estate\u002Fpeninsula-investment-group-usa_155.html\" target=\"_blank\">Peninsula Investment Group\u003C\u002Fa>, al respecto. Comentó cómo se ha comportado el segmento de la vivienda frente a una América profundamente inflacionista, y reflexionó sobre la evolución del sector a partir del conflicto europeo.  \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Hasta esta semana (21\u002F02 a 26\u002F02) hemos visto mucha inflación desde el punto de vista de costos, pero no hemos visto aumentos reales en los ingresos de las familias. Entonces en la parte del ciclo que estamos hoy, tenemos claridad respecto a la tendencia de aumentos de costos, por lo menos a la fecha, pero no hay claridad en los aumentos de precios que deberían de venir para que los \u003Cem>developers\u003C\u002Fem> sigan haciendo un margen adecuado, de forma que tenga sentido poner el dinero trabajar”, dijo. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nVale destacar que la inflación tiende a mantenerse de forma más persistente de lo esperado, pero no de forma tan aguda como en los años 80. Son choques transitorios que duran más de lo previsto. En general, el diagnóstico para la mayoría de las economías es de choques de oferta, más que de economías sobrecalentadas. \u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"17094\">Hugo Perea\u003C\u002Fspan> explica la diferencia entre los términos. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Cuando tienes una economía sobrecalentada la inflación es por demanda. Hay mucha demanda, la gente está comprando muchos bienes y servicios. Hay economías relativamente sobrecalentadas, puede ser en Estados Unidos, en América Latina -como Chile y Colombia-, que hay indicios de sobrecalentamiento. Ya en Perú, no ha subido por temas de demanda, ha sido como en la mayoría de los países: choques de ofertas”, explicó.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa actitud de Vladimir Putin ha provocado el mayor conflicto en el continente europeo desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Según Josef, este acontecimiento está  influenciando el precio \u002F disponibilidad de los commodities y generando ingresos extraordinarios para la región, ya que América Latina es uno de los principales exportadores de estos productos. Sin embargo, su duda consiste en saber "cuánto tiempo y de qué manera estas subidas de precios van a trickle-down (efecto goteo) a la economía real". \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Hoy en día estamos conversando con la sociedad de desarrolladores de Panamá. El gobierno tiene subsidios a las tasas de interés para viviendas niveles de precios y los están pensando subir. Ese ajuste espero que permita que haya un punto de equilibrio, para que el comprador tenga la capacidad de comprar esa vivienda que necesita a un precio que le permita al developer tener un retorno razonable”, ejemplificó. \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"display:flex; flex-wrap:wrap; width:100%\">\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"padding-right:20px\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FMPD174_2022_3_17_13_03_09_1647522189.JPG\" style=\"width:250px\" \u002F>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Credit: Divulgacción\u002F\u003Cspan class=\"data-profile-link\" data-id=\"646\">Josef Preschel\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"flex-basis:0; flex-grow:1; min-width:300px\">Josef no sólo es responsable de inversiones, sino que también trabaja como promotor de proyectos residenciales y de uso mixto en ciertos mercados en América Latina, además de invertir en vivienda estudiantil y multifamiliar en Estados Unidos. Al analizar el sector latinoamericano desde la perspectiva de las demandas, explicó las diferentes realidades que viven los tres subsegmentos: Vivienda Baja, Vivienda Media y Vivienda Alta. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Desde el punto de vista de la demanda, en lo que es vivienda media y vivienda baja, hay una gran formación de hogares y un gran déficit, y no va a haber falta de gente que quiere casa. Adicionalmente, creo que hay varios países en la región que tienen buenos programas de apoyo a esos compradores. El problema de la demanda a gran escala, creo que está en el segmento más alto”, opinó. \u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3 dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:18px\">Relación con la política y más retos del sector Residencial en Latinoamérica\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">Josef prevé para las próximas décadas en América Latina una mezcla entre gobiernos de Derecha e Izquierda, lo que se entiende como un riesgo a gestionar por los inversores. La importancia del contexto político es tal que una encuesta promovida por GRI señaló que \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fnews\u002Freal-estate\u002Fincertidumbre-politica-desafia-al-mercado-inmobiliario-latinoamericano_1714.html\" target=\"_blank\">70% de los ejecutivos consideran al ambiente político como el principal reto que va a tener la industria inmobiliaria en general.\u003C\u002Fa> \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSin embargo, menciona con detalle dos retos a los que se enfrentará el segmento de la vivienda que no tienen que ver directamente con el ámbito político, sino con la capacidad de venta y la situación de los mercados de capitales y de deuda. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Creo que el desafío viene más por dos lados: el primero es por la capacidad de vender a un precio que sea rentable -yo creo que sí se puede, pero la pregunta es cuándo y cómo ir ajustando-; y el segundo paso es qué está pasando con los mercados de capital y de deuda y la disponibilidad, porque este es un negocio altamente intensivo en capital. Y la realidad es muy diferente. Si tú te paras hoy en San Pablo o Montevideo, hay deuda prevalente y gente con intension de inversión en equity. Es la excepción de la región”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA continuación, lo contrasta con otros mercados de América Latina: \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“En Ciudad de México hay mucha salida de capital, y los bancos están activos, pero falta equity. Pero si te paras en Colombia, en Panamá, entre otros mercados, donde en mi opinión, los bancos sufrieron mucho por el tema de COVID, particularmente por que dichos países tuvieron políticas de salud no congruentes con sus políticas financieras; tienen un sector financiero que está siendo bastante cauteloso para emitir riesgo. Creo que el tema de la capitalización de los proyectos con la forma adecuada -excepto en San Pablo- es uno de los más grandes desafíos”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA pesar de la dislocación de las fuentes de capital que se está dando en la región como consecuencia de los contextos políticos y de post-pandemia, “el desastre que está haciendo Putin” actúa como promotor de la subida de los commodities, pudiendo impactar positivamente en nuestros países. De todas formas, el inversor subraya: “Es una tragedia la decisión que él tomó, el costo humano de la misma es inmenso y completamente innecesario”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Flanding\u002Freal-estate\u002Fel-mayor-club-de-relacion-y-negocios-inmobiliarios-del-planeta_3717\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FInstitutional_Banner_ES_banner_2022_5_10_21_03_30_1652216610.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align:center\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n","2022-03-14T13:41:26.000Z","2025-11-14T13:22:53.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482,1490,1498],{"id":47,"label":1297,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1297,"slug":1308,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1311,"slug":1312,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1315,"slug":1316,"language":1489},{"code":23},{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1491},[1492,1494,1496],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1493},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1495},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1497},{"code":23},{"id":81,"label":1359,"translations":1499},[1500,1502,1504],{"label":1359,"slug":1370,"language":1501},{"code":13},{"label":1373,"slug":1374,"language":1503},{"code":18},{"label":1377,"slug":1378,"language":1505},{"code":23},[1507,1509,1511,1513,1516,1518,1521,1523,1525,1527,1529,1531,1533,1535,1537],{"name":82,"enName":82,"ptName":82,"iso2":1508},"AR",{"name":171,"enName":171,"ptName":171,"iso2":1510},"BR",{"name":220,"enName":220,"ptName":220,"iso2":1512},"CL",{"name":233,"enName":233,"ptName":1514,"iso2":1515},"Colômbia","CO",{"name":249,"enName":249,"ptName":249,"iso2":1517},"CR",{"name":293,"enName":293,"ptName":1519,"iso2":1520},"Equador","EC",{"name":386,"enName":386,"ptName":386,"iso2":1522},"GT",{"name":411,"enName":411,"ptName":411,"iso2":1524},"HN",{"name":567,"enName":567,"ptName":567,"iso2":1526},"MX",{"name":664,"enName":664,"ptName":664,"iso2":1528},"PA",{"name":676,"enName":676,"ptName":676,"iso2":1530},"PE",{"name":693,"enName":693,"ptName":693,"iso2":1532},"PR",{"name":672,"enName":672,"ptName":672,"iso2":1534},"PY",{"name":300,"enName":300,"ptName":300,"iso2":1536},"SV",{"name":893,"enName":893,"ptName":893,"iso2":1538},"UY",[1540],{"name":1541,"slug":1542,"image":1543,"order":115},"Paulo Alfaro","paulo-alfaro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FPaulo_Alfaro_GRI_Institute_Profile_Pic_2025_11_04_10_47_53_1762264073.jpg",{"es":1545},"\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Flatinoamerica-que-camino-toma-la-vivienda-en-tiempos-de-inflacion-y-guerra_1721",[1547,1548,1549,1550,1551,1552],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]