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The exception is industrial, the only segment where development still shows a clear margin over the required return.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The debate matters directly to U.S. capital. The United States accounted for 48.2% of the foreign direct investment (FDI) Mexico received in the first half of 2026, according to Mexico’s Ministry of Economy (Secretaría de Economía).\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cem>The topic returns to the table on November 19 at \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Latin America GRI Real Estate - Miami Edition\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>, in the session “Latin Fundraising Dynamics.” \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Learn more.\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>The cost of time\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>For the executives gathered in Mexico, the main obstacle to development is not the price of materials but the timeline. According to them, permits and approvals can take five to ten years. One participant mentioned a renovation that should have been permitted in about six months and took three and a half years.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>As a result, foreign institutional investors pull back. Local developers end up absorbing more risk, and the final product becomes less attractive to buyers.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Margins have also narrowed. According to one executive, good development projects once delivered returns close to 36%, but that room has been shrinking as investors, especially family offices, become more demanding.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Banks still have appetite and are growing real estate lending at double digits, but they apply stricter criteria when construction risk is involved.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Banxico cut its benchmark interest rate to 6.25% on November 5, in a three-to-two vote, and signaled it expects to hold it at that level “for a prolonged period.”\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>FDI data show that the record investment in the first half (US$34.97 billion) came almost entirely from reinvested earnings (88.5%). New investment, by contrast, hit the brakes: it accounted for just 7.8% of the total, down 13% from the same period of 2025. In practice, capital is staying in the country, but it is expanding what already exists.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Buy and reposition\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>The GRI Barometer, an exclusive survey of GRI Institute members conducted during the event, confirms the preference for existing assets over new developments.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_inline\u002Ff06d103a6758d2d6d22f7aa00e6ce1581349a3aee1d60d3f6cb4b2ddb47a815d.webp\" alt=\"\" \u002F>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Investor interest is concentrated in assets with solid fundamentals that need capital and management.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>One investor gave an example: by renegotiating outdated leases and redoing maintenance agreements for elevators and equipment, he cut those costs nearly in half and increased the property’s net operating income in just two years. “It’s not one single thing that makes an asset highly profitable, but the sum of several,” he summarized.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Industrial is the exception to the rule (buy rather than build) because it has a proven exit. In the industrial panel at the event in Mexico, a developer compared cap rate compression between developing and selling an industrial asset versus a retail one. See below:\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_inline\u002Ff0b57c9a1ce83300d21f7bc4b4823544c831af3b15bc884e8e22c7eab057d146.webp\" alt=\"\" \u002F>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>According to that executive, after an 18-month roadshow with private investors, industrial real estate was the only segment that drew interest.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The reason is liquidity: the same warehouse can change hands several times over the cycles. Retail, meanwhile, remains stable but with little room for appreciation. Participants estimate that the sector’s cap rates have compressed by no more than 50 basis points in two years, with no transactions below 10%.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Building in industrial, however, requires discipline. Vacancy has risen after the delivery of large speculative warehouses. According to Solili, the national rate closed the third quarter of 2026 at 5.5%, and construction starts in Mexico City fell 38% year over year.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The most experienced developers say their investment analyses do not depend on nearshoring. For them, a project has to pencil out even without the relocation of supply chains.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Energy remains the biggest bottleneck, and on-site generation within industrial parks is emerging as a short-term solution.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Also read:\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cem> \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fen\u002Freal-estate\u002Fnearshoring-se-desacelera-en-mexico\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Nearshoring slows in Mexico as annual USMCA review worries investors\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Among international hotel chains, the strategy of converting and repositioning operating assets also prevails.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>With current construction and financing costs, a hotel that already has a track record and a market position can get a “new life” faster than a greenfield project. One operator said that in 2025 about 60% of new hotel signings for its chain in the Americas were conversions.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Another executive countered that, in some cases, building is cheaper than renovating a 40-year-old building full of hidden problems.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Less construction, more professional capital\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>In offices, the conversion of obsolete buildings is replacing new construction, with vacancy still high in Santa Fe. Residential appears as the least attractive segment: only 9% point to build-to-sell and 6% to multifamily as the best risk-return in the country.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Family capital helps explain the shift. According to a study cited at the event, the share of large families’ wealth allocated to real estate has risen from 9% to 14%, and 86% of them are willing to increase it.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Family offices are also swapping investments based on personal relationships for professional structures, with preferred equity, distribution waterfalls and defined minimum returns.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>For one foreign asset manager in attendance, institutional investors prefer a stable return with a spread over the benchmark rate to betting on the larger but uncertain gains of development.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In the coming years, growth in the Mexican market should depend less on speculative bets and more on the ability to modernize existing portfolios and build local partnerships that can navigate regulation.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The risk executives cited most is the annual USMCA review: 35% of leaders expect that, without a long-term extension, nearshoring and new industrial investment will slow.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In practice, the advantage in Mexico will go to those who can buy well, execute patiently and partner with local operators.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>For foreign investors, development only clears the required return in industrial; in other segments, repositioning is the safest route.\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cul>\u003Cli>Nearly 40% of executives surveyed by GRI Institute see the best opportunity in acquiring industrial assets that need CapEx.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>In industrial, building still pays off: the spread between development cost and exit reaches 400 basis points.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>In other sectors, slow permitting and selective credit make repositioning the safest route.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>","Investors swap greenfield for acquisitions in Mexico","mexico real estate,industrial real estate,cap rate,nearshoring,asset repositioning","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002Fefd60fb4cbb536ed0f639e554fd5279696bad1f17f8e3d365070c6fb1715ade1.webp",{"code":13},{"id":1441,"newsId":1416,"languageId":5,"title":1442,"subtitle":1443,"content":1444,"summary":8,"takeaways":1445,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1446,"seoKeywords":1447,"seoDescription":1443,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1448,"createdAt":1428,"updatedAt":8,"language":1449},6283,"Con licencias que tardan hasta diez años, inversionistas cambian greenfield por adquisiciones en México","Plazos largos y costos al alza empujan el capital hacia el reposicionamiento; el segmento industrial sigue siendo la excepción","\u003Cp>En México, comprar activos existentes y hacerlos más productivos rinde más que construir desde cero en la mayoría de los segmentos.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Esa fue la evaluación predominante entre los más de 160 ejecutivos de desarrolladoras, gestoras y bancos reunidos en la Ciudad de México para la 11.ª edición del Mexico GRI Real Estate 2026. La excepción es el segmento industrial, el único en el que el desarrollo todavía muestra un margen claro sobre el retorno exigido.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>El debate interesa directamente al capital estadounidense. Estados Unidos representó el 48.2% de la inversión extranjera directa (IED) recibida por México en el primer semestre de 2026, según la Secretaría de Economía.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cem>El tema vuelve a la mesa el 19 de noviembre, en el \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Latin America GRI Real Estate - Miami Edition\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>, en la sesión “Latin Fundraising Dynamics”. \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Conozca más.\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>El costo del tiempo\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>Para los ejecutivos reunidos en México, el principal obstáculo para el desarrollo no es el precio de los insumos, sino el plazo de obra. Según ellos, las licencias y autorizaciones pueden tardar de cinco a diez años. Un participante mencionó una remodelación que debía obtener su licencia en cerca de seis meses y tardó tres años y medio.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Ante ello, el inversionista institucional extranjero retrocede. La desarrolladora local pasa a absorber más riesgo, y el producto final resulta menos atractivo para quien compra.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Los márgenes también se redujeron. Según un ejecutivo, los buenos proyectos de desarrollo llegaron a entregar retornos cercanos al 36%, pero ese espacio se ha ido reduciendo a medida que los inversionistas, en especial los family offices, se vuelven más exigentes.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Los bancos mantienen el apetito y crecen a doble dígito en crédito inmobiliario, pero exigen más criterio cuando existe riesgo de obra.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Banxico recortó la tasa de interés de referencia a 6.25% el 5 de noviembre, por tres votos contra dos, e indicó que prevé mantenerla en ese nivel “por un tiempo prolongado”.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Los datos de IED muestran que la inversión récord del primer semestre (US$ 34,970 millones) provino casi en su totalidad de la reinversión de utilidades (88.5%). Las nuevas inversiones, en cambio, pisaron el freno: sumaron apenas el 7.8% del total, una caída del 13% frente al mismo periodo de 2025. En la práctica, el capital sigue en el país, pero amplía lo que ya existe.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Comprar y reposicionar\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>El GRI Barometer, encuesta exclusiva realizada con miembros del GRI Institute durante el evento, confirma la preferencia por activos construidos en lugar de nuevos desarrollos.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_inline\u002Fbbc4d1d2c5ed407517d7cd810e1ba53eb053a25189246a0c09f82d40dfc65b8a.webp\" alt=\"\" \u002F>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>El interés de los inversionistas se concentra en activos con fundamentos sólidos que necesitan capital y gestión.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Un inversionista dio un ejemplo: al renegociar contratos de arrendamiento desfasados y rehacer los acuerdos de mantenimiento de elevadores y equipos, redujo el costo casi a la mitad y aumentó el resultado operativo del inmueble en solo dos años. “No es una sola cosa la que hace muy rentable un activo, sino la suma de varias”, resumió.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>El segmento industrial es la excepción a la regla (adquirir en lugar de desarrollar) porque tiene una salida comprobada. En el panel dedicado al sector durante el evento en México, un desarrollador comparó la compresión del cap rate entre desarrollar y vender un activo industrial frente a uno de retail. Véalo a continuación:\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_inline\u002F8d3fabbc2bbe276e3b063b8c981be10bfb0d399cf10efa10762345e26385b858.webp\" alt=\"\" \u002F>\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Según ese ejecutivo, tras 18 meses de roadshow con inversionistas privados, el inmobiliario industrial fue el único segmento que despertó interés.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>La razón es la liquidez: la misma nave puede cambiar de dueño varias veces a lo largo de los ciclos. El retail, por su parte, sigue estable, pero con poco margen de valorización. Los participantes calculan que el cap rate del sector se comprimió como máximo 50 puntos base en dos años, sin ninguna transacción por debajo del 10%.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Construir en el segmento industrial, sin embargo, exige disciplina. La desocupación subió tras la entrega de grandes naves especulativas. Según Solili, el indicador cerró el tercer trimestre de 2026 en 5.5% a nivel nacional, y el inicio de obras en la Ciudad de México cayó 38% en un año.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Los desarrolladores más experimentados afirman que sus análisis de inversión no dependen del nearshoring. Para ellos, el proyecto debe cerrar incluso sin la relocalización de cadenas productivas.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>La energía sigue siendo el principal cuello de botella, y la generación propia dentro de los parques industriales aparece como solución de corto plazo.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Lea también: \u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fes\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fnearshoring-se-desacelera-en-mexico\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Nearshoring se desacelera en México y la revisión anual del T-MEC preocupa a los inversionistas\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Entre las cadenas hoteleras internacionales también prevalece la estrategia de reconversión y reposicionamiento de activos en operación.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Con los costos actuales de construcción y financiamiento, un hotel que ya tiene historial y posición de mercado puede ganar “nueva vida” más rápido que un proyecto greenfield. Un operador afirmó que, en 2025, cerca del 60% de las firmas de nuevos hoteles de su cadena en las Américas fueron conversiones.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Otro ejecutivo matizó que, en algunos casos, construir resulta más barato que remodelar un edificio de 40 años, lleno de problemas ocultos.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Menos obra, más capital profesional\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>En oficinas, la reconversión de edificios obsoletos sustituye a la obra nueva, con la desocupación todavía elevada en Santa Fe. El residencial aparece como el segmento menos atractivo: solo el 9% señala el build-to-sell y el 6% el multifamily como la mejor relación riesgo-retorno del país.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>El capital familiar ayuda a explicar el cambio. Según un estudio citado en el evento, la proporción del patrimonio de las grandes familias invertida en real estate subió del 9% al 14%, y el 86% de ellas está dispuesto a aumentarla.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Los family offices también están sustituyendo inversiones basadas en relaciones personales por estructuras profesionales, con preferred equity, cascadas de distribución y retornos mínimos definidos.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Para un gestor extranjero presente, el inversionista institucional prefiere un retorno estable con spread sobre la tasa de referencia a apostar por las ganancias mayores e inciertas del desarrollo.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En los próximos años, el crecimiento del mercado mexicano debería depender menos de apuestas especulativas y más de la capacidad de modernizar el portafolio existente y de formar alianzas locales que sepan navegar la regulación.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>El riesgo más citado por los ejecutivos es la revisión anual del T-MEC: el 35% de los líderes espera que, sin una extensión de largo plazo, se desaceleren el nearshoring y las nuevas inversiones industriales.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En la práctica, la ventaja en México será de quien logre comprar bien, ejecutar con paciencia y asociarse con operadores locales.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Para el inversionista extranjero, el desarrollo solo supera el retorno exigido en el segmento industrial; en los demás, el reposicionamiento es la ruta más segura.\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cul>\u003Cli>Casi el 40% de los ejecutivos consultados por el GRI Institute ve la mejor oportunidad en la compra de activos industriales que requieren CapEx.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>En el segmento industrial, construir todavía compensa: el spread entre costo y venta llega a 400 puntos base.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>En los demás sectores, la lentitud de las licencias y el crédito selectivo hacen del reposicionamiento la ruta más segura.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>","Inversionistas cambian greenfield por adquisiciones en MX","inversión inmobiliaria México,naves industriales,cap rate,nearshoring,reconversión de activos","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F8fb20488f47cb5acb97d05cbfb3864a5e53c20766aa029f4de000b48020914cf.webp",{"code":23},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1451},[1452,1454,1456],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1453},{"code":13},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1455},{"code":18},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1457},{"code":23},[1459,1473,1486,1499,1513],{"id":674,"label":1460,"translations":1461},"Cross-Border Investment Flow",[1462,1465,1469],{"label":1460,"slug":1463,"language":1464},"cross-border-investment-flow",{"code":13},{"label":1466,"slug":1467,"language":1468},"Fluxo de Investimento Cross-Border","fluxo-de-investimento-cross-border",{"code":18},{"label":1470,"slug":1471,"language":1472},"Flujo de Inversión Cross-Border","flujo-de-inversion-cross-border",{"code":23},{"id":747,"label":1474,"translations":1475},"Hospitality",[1476,1479,1483],{"label":1474,"slug":1477,"language":1478},"hospitality",{"code":13},{"label":1480,"slug":1481,"language":1482},"Hotelaria e Hospitalidade","hotelaria-e-hospitalidade",{"code":18},{"label":284,"slug":1484,"language":1485},"hoteleria-y-hospitalidad-2",{"code":23},{"id":831,"label":289,"translations":1487},[1488,1491,1495],{"label":289,"slug":1489,"language":1490},"industrial-logistics-2",{"code":13},{"label":1492,"slug":1493,"language":1494},"Industrial e Logística","industrial-e-logistica",{"code":18},{"label":1496,"slug":1497,"language":1498},"Industrial y Logística","industrial-y-logistica",{"code":23},{"id":759,"label":1500,"translations":1501},"Investment Cycle",[1502,1505,1509],{"label":1500,"slug":1503,"language":1504},"investment-cycle",{"code":13},{"label":1506,"slug":1507,"language":1508},"Ciclo de Investimento","ciclo-de-investimento",{"code":18},{"label":1510,"slug":1511,"language":1512},"Ciclo de Inversión","ciclo-de-inversion",{"code":23},{"id":1161,"label":357,"translations":1514},[1515,1518,1522],{"label":357,"slug":1516,"language":1517},"offices-2",{"code":13},{"label":1519,"slug":1520,"language":1521},"Escritórios","escritorios",{"code":18},{"label":375,"slug":1523,"language":1524},"oficinas-2",{"code":23},[1526],{"name":1043,"enName":1043,"ptName":1043,"iso2":1527},"MX",[1529],{"name":1530,"slug":1531,"image":1532,"order":600},"Henrique Cisman","henrique-cisman","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FHenrique_Marcal_Cisman_GRI_Institute_Profile_PIC_2025_11_04_11_31_12_1762266672.jpg",{"en":1534,"es":1535},"\u002Freal-estate\u002Finversionistas-cambian-greenfield-por-adquisiciones-en-mexico","\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Finversionistas-cambian-greenfield-por-adquisiciones-en-mexico",{"level":1425,"gated":1420},[1538,1539,1540,1541,1542,1543],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]