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económica",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_03_[10]_2025_2_19_11_11_26_1739974286.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_02_[10]_2025_2_19_11_11_26_1739974286.webp","2025-02-19T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: Wirestock \u002F Envato","#FFF","2025-02-27T00:00:00.000Z",1479,"2025-02-19T11:11:26.000Z","2025-11-18T14:11:29.000Z",[1462],{"id":1463,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1464,"content":1465,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":1466,"seoTag":1467,"seoTitle":1468,"seoKeywords":1467,"seoDescription":1464,"seoAbstract":978,"seoImage":1469,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},2577,"Sin embargo, el desempeño de los sectores residencial y logístico dependerá de ajustes financieros","La economía colombiana comienza 2025 en un contexto global lleno de desafíos e incertidumbres. El panorama está marcado por tensiones geopolíticas, cambios en las políticas económicas de grandes potencias e inestabilidades en el comercio internacional. Bajo la presidencia de Donald Trump, Estados Unidos adoptó una postura más proteccionista, con aranceles del 10% sobre productos chinos, por ejemplo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEstas medidas agravan la competitividad de la industria colombiana, como señala Juana Téllez, economista jefe de BBVA Research, durante una reunión privada con miembros de \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> Latam, en la que compartió las proyecciones macroeconómicas para 2025, considerando los impactos de la política exterior y el panorama inmobiliario.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FGRI_vision_macro_110_2025_2_19_14_16_59_1739974619.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Juana Tellez (BBVA Research) en presentación para los miembros del club (imagen: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa volatilidad del mercado financiero estadounidense y las presiones inflacionarias aumentan la incertidumbre para los inversionistas. A pesar de las adversidades externas, la economía colombiana presenta señales de recuperación. Según BBVA, el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) crecerá un 2,5% en 2025, impulsado por la reactivación de la demanda interna.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLas proyecciones indican un avance más robusto para 2026, con un crecimiento estimado del 3,2%, lo que evidencia un proceso gradual de recuperación económica. Se espera que la demanda interna crezca un 4,7% en 2025 y un 3,7% en 2026, sostenida por el aumento de la confianza del consumidor y la recuperación del sector productivo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl consumo privado, por su parte, mantiene una trayectoria ascendente, con una previsión de crecimiento de alrededor del 3% en 2025, impulsado principalmente por la recuperación de las ventas de bienes semidurables y durables. El sector de servicios crecerá alrededor del 1%, con una leve desaceleración antes de retomar un ritmo más acelerado en 2026.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa crisis de empleo en el país se refleja en el sector de servicios, tradicionalmente responsable de una gran parte de las contrataciones. Según BBVA, el empleo en el país crecerá un 1,7% en 2025, mientras que en las áreas urbanas el crecimiento será del 1,6%. La tasa de desempleo, sin embargo, continuará elevada, rondando el 10%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa inflación sigue siendo uno de los principales desafíos para la política económica de Colombia. Tras cerrar 2024 en un 5,2%, se espera que se desacelere al 3,9% en 2025 y al 3,5% en 2026, siguiendo una leve moderación en la demanda.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo obstante, los riesgos inflacionarios persisten debido al aumento de los salarios y las políticas fiscales expansionistas. El Banco de la República adopta una postura cautelosa, con una reducción gradual de la tasa de interés, que debería cerrar el año en un 7%. La política monetaria busca equilibrar la necesidad de contener la volatilidad cambiaria y la presión inflacionaria sin perjudicar la recuperación económica.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl peso colombiano continuará experimentando fluctuaciones en 2025, reflejando las incertidumbres internas y los cambios en las políticas comerciales de Estados Unidos. La tasa de cambio promedio proyectada para el año es de 4.392 COP\u002FUSD. Además del impacto de las tarifas estadounidenses, factores como la situación fiscal del país y el ciclo electoral colombiano contribuyen a la volatilidad cambiaria.\r\n\u003Ch3>Sector residencial: tendencia en unidades más pequeñas\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nEl mercado inmobiliario y la infraestructura también fueron parte de la discusión. En el sector energético, el país enfrenta limitaciones en la generación y distribución de electricidad, agravadas por la fuerte dependencia de fuentes térmicas y la baja interconexión con otros sistemas. Esta realidad dificulta la reducción de las tarifas de energía e impacta tanto la competitividad de la industria como el costo de vida de la población.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAunque la transición energética está en marcha, su ritmo aún es más lento de lo necesario, lo que afecta, por ejemplo, el desarrollo de centros de datos en el país. Actualmente, Colombia representa el 9% del mercado latinoamericano, con 20 unidades y más de 14.000 m² de infraestructura instalada. La falta de energía suficiente y las brechas regulatorias aún representan obstáculos significativos para la expansión del sector.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“Se necesitan algunos cambios regulatorios. Hace falta más energía. Mientras no tengamos energía disponible, será muy difícil”, advierte un player, refiriéndose a una infraestructura energética insuficiente para satisfacer la creciente demanda.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn el sector residencial, se observa un aumento en la demanda de unidades habitacionales más pequeñas, impulsado, en parte, por cambios demográficos: “El envejecimiento de la población colombiana ha llegado para quedarse”, afirma un participante, constatando una reconfiguración en los núcleos familiares. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEs importante resaltar que Colombia registró 317.777 nacimientos entre enero y octubre de 2024, lo que representa una caída del 14,4% en relación con el mismo período de 2023.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLas proyecciones presentadas en la reunión indican que el mercado de vivienda podría alcanzar 172.000 ventas de inmuebles nuevos en 2025, aunque este número depende de factores como la estabilización de las tasas de interés y la reducción de la inflación. En 2024, se vendieron más de 87.000 unidades.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCabe mencionar que la suspensión de subsidios del programa “Mi Casa Ya” limita el lanzamiento de viviendas sociales y afecta directamente a más de 40.000 familias. En diciembre de 2024, el Fondo Nacional de Vivienda (Fonvivienda) informó que las cuotas para cubrir las tasas de interés de préstamos hipotecarios se agotaron.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEste impacto, sin embargo, está siendo parcialmente compensado por subsidios regionales y por un mayor dinamismo del consumo doméstico, lo que podría ayudar a impulsar el sector habitacional.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDesde la perspectiva de los inversionistas públicos y privados, un participante destaca la necesidad de repensar el uso del suelo, para integrar de manera más cercana las áreas residenciales y los polos de empleo. La gran distancia entre estos dos espacios genera altos costos de transporte.\r\n\u003Ch3>Sector logístico: necesidad de reducir los costos\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nUn ejecutivo expresa su preocupación por el aumento de los costos operativos, las regulaciones más estrictas y las restricciones de movilidad. El año 2024 fue particularmente desafiante para la logística colombiana. Según el Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP), los costos logísticos representaron el 14% del PIB, superando el 12% registrado en 2023.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEste aumento fue potenciado, entre otros factores, por el “aumento en los precios de la gasolina”, según menciona el participante. Ante este panorama, la modernización de la infraestructura logística y de almacenamiento es clave para fortalecer el mercado de naves industriales y centros de distribución, con el fin de reducir los costos operacionales.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl objetivo del sector para 2025 es reducir en un 20% los tiempos de entrega, mediante el uso de rutas inteligentes y soluciones digitales avanzadas. Tecnologías como geolocalización, análisis de datos en tiempo real y la aplicación de inteligencia artificial prometen optimizar la distribución y, según el Foro Económico Mundial, podrían reducir los costos logísticos hasta en un 15% en los próximos tres años.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEstas transformaciones, si se implementan correctamente, podrían contribuir significativamente a la competitividad de Colombia.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Fevents?segment=2&region=3\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FREClubBR22_Banner_Fixo_Hub_Pro_ximos_Eventos_banner_[2]_2025_2_19_14_23_31_1739975011.jpg\" style=\"border-radius:15px; width:100%\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n ","Articulo","Recuperación económica en Colombia","Colombia seguirá en recuperación económica","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F[HUBNews]_Padra_o_01_[11]_2025_2_19_11_27_27_1739975247.jpg","2025-02-19T11:11:39.000Z","2025-11-18T14:11:37.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1489},{"code":23},[1491],{"name":233,"enName":233,"ptName":1492,"iso2":1493},"Colômbia","CO",[1495],{"name":1496,"slug":1497,"image":1498,"order":115},"Paulo Alfaro","paulo-alfaro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FPaulo_Alfaro_GRI_Institute_Profile_Pic_2025_11_04_10_47_53_1762264073.jpg",{"es":1500},"\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fen-medio-de-incertidumbres-globales-colombia-seguir-en-recuperacion-economica",[1502,1503,1504,1505,1506,1507],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]