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crediticia",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1920x1080_px_Top_[2]_2024_11_18_17_03_55_1731960235.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F600x600_px_Cover_[2]_2024_11_18_17_03_55_1731960235.webp","2024-11-19T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: Envato","#0000","2024-11-23T00:00:00.000Z",734,"2024-11-18T17:03:55.000Z","2025-11-14T09:12:45.000Z",[1462],{"id":1463,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1464,"content":1465,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":1466,"seoTag":1467,"seoTitle":1468,"seoKeywords":1469,"seoDescription":1464,"seoAbstract":978,"seoImage":1470,"createdAt":1471,"updatedAt":1472,"language":1473},2519,"En entrevista exclusiva con GRI Club, Adrian Garza y Renzo Merino, de Moody's, analizan el panorama económico de la región","La agencia de calificación crediticia Moody's ha centrado su atención en México y señaló, en entrevista exclusiva con \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>, que podría considerar una revisión de la calificación soberana del país, dependiendo de las políticas adoptadas por el nuevo gobierno.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn un momento decisivo para la región, marcado por cambios estructurales a nivel político y judicial, los analistas de Moody's expresaron su preocupación ante el deterioro fiscal observado en 2024, con un déficit estimado en 5,9% del PIB, lo que proyecta un aumento en los niveles de deuda del gobierno. Cómo la nueva administración implementará medidas de consolidación fiscal para corregir este desequilibrio sigue siendo una incógnita. En este contexto, la agencia indicó que el desempeño económico será crucial para respaldar cualquier esfuerzo de reducción del déficit.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa agencia destacó que su análisis considerará no solo los planes de gasto y las expectativas de recaudación, sino también las condiciones del mercado y el costo del financiamiento para el gobierno. Según Renzo Merino, vicepresidente del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's: “Una desaceleración económica, junto con el incremento en el gasto social, podría restringir la capacidad del gobierno para ajustar sus finanzas de manera eficaz”.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAdicionalmente, Pemex es visto como un elemento determinante en la evaluación del riesgo soberano de México. El apoyo continuo a la empresa se transformó en un punto de presión fiscal, ya que los recursos asignados a la petrolera impactan directamente las finanzas públicas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSegún Moody’s, Pemex ya representa un pasivo contingente para el país, y su delicada situación financiera sólo agrava esta percepción. La agencia pronostica que los apoyos gubernamentales a la petrolera aumentarán en los próximos años, no solo para cumplir con las obligaciones de deuda, sino también para enfrentar déficits de flujo de caja provocados por pérdidas operativas. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n“El riesgo de que los apoyos a Pemex sigan deteriorando las métricas de deuda del gobierno creció sustancialmente, lo que podría afectar negativamente el perfil crediticio soberano” - subrayó Adrian Garza, Sr Credit Officer de Moody's, destacando la carga fiscal creciente que implica la empresa para el Estado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPor otra parte, el fenómeno del nearshoring emergió como una oportunidad clave para México, al ofrecer al país la posibilidad de atraer inversiones significativas en manufactura y logística. Desde 2023, se anunciaron numerosos proyectos que, de concretarse, impulsarían el crecimiento económico del país en los próximos años. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nNo obstante, Moody’s advirtió que el nivel de inversión anticipado podría verse limitado debido a problemas regulatorios e incertidumbre institucional. Factores estructurales, como la capacidad de transmisión eléctrica, la disponibilidad de agua, la incertidumbre jurídica y los posibles cambios derivados de las elecciones en Estados Unidos, se perfilan como obstáculos que podrían enfriar el apetito inversor.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl gobierno propuso reducir el déficit público al 3% del PIB para 2025, pero Moody’s mantiene reservas respecto a la viabilidad de este objetivo. La agencia anticipa una disminución del déficit más paulatina, dadas las condiciones económicas actuales y la rigidez del gasto público. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa presentación del paquete económico de 2025, programada para mediados de este mes, será decisiva para evaluar las estrategias fiscales a corto y mediano plazo. Según la agencia, la combinación de una desaceleración económica con un incremento en los gastos en pensiones, programas sociales y apoyo a Pemex podría limitar severamente la capacidad del gobierno para implementar ajustes necesarios. “En caso de no alcanzar la meta de reducción del déficit, el perfil crediticio soberano de México podría enfrentar una presión negativa, inclinando los riesgos hacia una posible rebaja en la calificación” - declara Merino. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn síntesis, México enfrenta retos que pondrán a prueba su estabilidad económica y su capacidad para mantener una calificación crediticia sólida. Moody’s seguirá de cerca el desempeño del nuevo gobierno, evaluando su capacidad para gestionar los riesgos fiscales, aplicar políticas efectivas y capitalizar las oportunidades que ofrece el nearshoring. Con decisiones críticas por delante, el futuro de la calificación soberana de México dependerá de su capacidad para sortear estos desafíos y fortalecer sus fundamentos económicos en los próximos años.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n ","Article","#griclub \r\n#moodys\r\n#riesgo \r\n#economia \r\n#mexico \r\n#pemex \r\n#presionfiscal \r\n#calificacionderiesgo \r\n#riesgosoberano ","Moody’s alerta: Presión fiscal y riesgo crediticio en México","  #griclub \r\n#moodys\r\n#riesgo \r\n#economia \r\n#mexico \r\n#pemex \r\n#presionfiscal \r\n#calificacionderiesgo \r\n#riesgosoberano ","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F500x500_px_Social_[2]_2024_11_18_17_08_36_1731960516.jpg","2024-11-18T17:04:04.000Z","2025-11-14T09:12:54.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1475},[1476,1478,1480],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1477},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1479},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1481},{"code":23},[1483],{"id":136,"label":1051,"translations":1484},[1485,1487,1489],{"label":1051,"slug":1062,"language":1486},{"code":13},{"label":1065,"slug":1066,"language":1488},{"code":18},{"label":1069,"slug":1070,"language":1490},{"code":23},[1492],{"name":567,"enName":567,"ptName":567,"iso2":1493},"MX",[1495],{"name":1496,"slug":1497,"image":1498,"order":115},"Belén Palkovsky","belen-palkovsky","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002F080A1419_2025_11_04_11_24_07_1762266247.jpg",{"es":1500},"\u002Finfraestructura\u002Fmoody-s-alerta-mexico-enfrenta-presion-fiscal-y-riesgo-de-rebaja-crediticia",[1502,1503,1504,1505,1506,1507],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]