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estancado",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1859x559_px_[10]_2023_11_27_15_12_19_1701108739.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F600x600_px_[10]_2023_11_27_15_12_19_1701108739.jpg","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1920x1080_px_[10]_2023_11_27_15_12_19_1701108739.jpg","2023-11-27T00:00:00.000Z","Credit: MirkoVitali | Envato","#FFFFFF","Artigo ","Estancamiento económico en Chile","El mercado observa con atención la posibilidad de reducir las tasas de interés para reactivar las inversiones privadas",2204,"2023-11-27T13:09:46.000Z","2025-11-14T14:32:52.000Z",[1465],{"id":1466,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1450,"subtitle":1460,"content":1467,"summary":978,"takeaways":978,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":978,"seoKeywords":978,"seoDescription":978,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":8,"createdAt":1468,"updatedAt":1469,"language":1470},2278,"La minería ha sido la excepción en medio de una economía estancada en Chile. ¿Pero por qué el país depende de un solo motor económico? Esta pregunta buscó ser respondida durante una reunión privada con la presencia de líderes del mercado inmobiliario y de la infraestructura de \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>, en Santiago.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl debate contó con análisis macroeconómicos del Banco de Crédito e Inversiones (BCI), representado por su economista jefe, Sergio Lehmann Beresi. De la reunión surgieron algunas conclusiones: mientras la minería permanece como un pilar de resiliencia en la economía nacional, la necesidad de reducir las tasas de interés emerge como un catalizador para impulsar el crecimiento en los próximos años.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa dependencia de las exportaciones de cobre y las perspectivas de ajustes graduales en el sector energético añaden complejidad al escenario. A continuación, presentamos los principales insights de la discusión, que tuvo como objetivo proyectar a Chile en los próximos años.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n \r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:center\">\u003Cimg alt=\"\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Ffiles\u002FClub_Meeting_11.53.05_[1]_2023_11_27_16_13_10_1701101590.jpg\" style=\"width:100%\" \u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:12px\">Sergio Lehmann Beresi comparte sus proyecciones con los participantes (Imagen: \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"13404\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"14827\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"15498\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16494\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"16980\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"17660\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"22504\">GRI Club\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>) \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\r\n\r\n\u003Ch3>Estrategias de crecimiento y sectores clave\u003C\u002Fh3>\r\nSegún uno de los participantes en la discusión, la minería seguirá contribuyendo positivamente a la actividad económica en los próximos años, extendiéndose hasta 2024-2025. Este panorama está relacionado con la operación de proyectos iniciados recientemente.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAunque esto es una ventaja, no refleja la situación macroeconómica del país, y uno de los factores destacados durante la discusión fue la elevada tasa de interés establecida por el Banco Central. Este mes, el banco ajustó la tasa al 9% después de un recorte de 50 puntos base, continuando con una esperada reducción de la tasa de interés que complace al mercado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"El principal impulsor para recuperar el crecimiento en 2024-2025 tiene que ver con la política monetaria, tiene que ver con tipos más bajos, porque de lo contrario las perspectivas que estamos viendo en adelante no se concretarán", comenta un ejecutivo. \u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSe destaca que para que las tasas continúen disminuyendo, es necesario que la inflación siga el mismo camino. Actualmente, se encuentra en un valor anual del 5%, con una tendencia a retroceder hacia la meta del Banco Central, que es del 3%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLos factores externos ejercen una influencia significativa en las tasas de interés del país. Los participantes observan que, al ser una economía abierta, tanto comercial como financieramente, Chile tiene una correlación entre sus tasas de interés a largo plazo y las tasas internacionales, especialmente las de los Estados Unidos.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nComo se mencionó anteriormente, la minería ha mostrado resiliencia en Chile, siendo responsable de evitar que la variación del PIB chileno sea negativa. En septiembre, el crecimiento económico fue nulo, mientras se esperaba -0.2 o -0.3. Se prevé que la economía del cuarto trimestre permanezca estancada, con una variación del 0.3%, manteniéndose bajo el protagonismo de la minería.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nDesconsiderando este impulso sectorial, se observa una caída del 1.2% en el PIB, siendo el consumo el principal responsable de la contracción. "El consumo fue la variable más afectada por tasas muy progresivas, porque es precisamente el canal a través del cual la política monetaria funciona y sigue presentando datos particularmente negativos", comenta un participante.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nCon la política de reducción de tasas de interés, se espera que el escenario económico en 2024 se recupere no solo para el consumo, sino también para el mercado productivo en general, con un crecimiento económico estimado en torno al 2% al 2.5%.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAdemás del sector minero, otro que recibió atención especial durante la conversación fue el sector energético. Se proyecta una disminución en los precios de la energía asociada a tensiones geopolíticas y a la fluctuación en la cotización del petróleo. Los ejecutivos prevén, posteriormente, un ajuste gradual (sin estimación específica) durante 2024.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n"Se entendía que esto podría suceder durante el mes de noviembre, pero parece que se va a posponer, porque aún no hay planes al respecto", informa un jugador, considerando luego un posible proyecto de ley que permitirá ajustes de manera gradual a lo largo del próximo año.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nChile presenta una alta volatilidad cambiaria, reflejando la incertidumbre en la política interna y factores externos que han introducido mayor cautela en el mercado. Los participantes destacan que la tasa de cambio está influenciada principalmente por el precio del cobre, que responde a situaciones internacionales complejas, funcionando como un termómetro de la economía. Chile, al ser un país minero, depende significativamente de las exportaciones de este elemento.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nSe estima que hasta 2025 habrá una disminución en el tipo de cambio atribuida al precio esperado del cobre, que deberá estar en torno a 3.80 a 3.65 dólares. Esta previsión se basa en el respaldo de la demanda debido a la movilidad y la energía verde.","2023-11-27T13:10:03.000Z","2025-11-14T14:32:58.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1472},[1473,1475,1477],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1474},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1476},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1478},{"code":23},[1480],{"id":65,"label":1231,"translations":1481},[1482,1484,1486],{"label":1231,"slug":1242,"language":1483},{"code":13},{"label":1245,"slug":1246,"language":1485},{"code":18},{"label":1249,"slug":1250,"language":1487},{"code":23},[1489],{"name":220,"enName":220,"ptName":220,"iso2":1490},"CL",[1492],{"name":1493,"slug":1494,"image":1495,"order":115},"Paulo Alfaro","paulo-alfaro","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FPaulo_Alfaro_GRI_Institute_Profile_Pic_2025_11_04_10_47_53_1762264073.jpg",{"es":1497},"\u002Finfraestructura\u002Fmineria-es-un-pilar-economico-en-medio-de-un-chile-estancado",[1499,1500,1501,1502,1503,1504],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]