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México",false,"https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1859x559_px_Top_[24]_2025_10_24_15_37_54_1761331074.webp","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F1920x1080_px_Cover_[28]_2025_10_24_15_37_54_1761331074.webp","2025-10-24T00:00:00.000Z","diegograndi\u002F Envato ","#FFF","2025-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",516,"2025-10-24T15:37:54.000Z","2025-11-04T13:11:41.000Z",[1462],{"id":1463,"newsId":1447,"languageId":5,"title":1464,"subtitle":1465,"content":1466,"summary":8,"takeaways":8,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1467,"seoKeywords":978,"seoDescription":1468,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1469,"createdAt":1470,"updatedAt":1471,"language":1472},2888,"Moody's: \"México en una encrucijada crítica entre oportunidades de nearshoring y desafíos institucionales\"","Entrevistamos a Roxana Muñoz, Renzo Merino y Diego González, de Moody's México, sobre el panorama económico del país y su impacto en la infraestructura","En un contexto de desaceleración global, tensiones comerciales y transición energética, México se presenta como un punto de atención clave para los inversionistas en infraestructura y energía. Su estrecha relación con Estados Unidos, las oportunidades derivadas del nearshoring y los desafíos institucionales, como la reforma judicial, configuran un panorama complejo que requiere un análisis detallado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nPara comprender cómo estos factores están impactando el sector, entrevistamos a Roxana Muñoz (VP – Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance), Renzo Merino (VP – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign) y Diego González (AVP – Analyst, Project and Infrastructure Finance) de Moody’s Ratings. En esta conversación, comparten su visión sobre la evolución del entorno crediticio de México, los avances en la transición energética, los cuellos de botella en infraestructura y los impactos de la mejora en la calificación de PEMEX.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>En el contexto actual de América Latina, ¿cómo se evalúa el "desacoplamiento" de las economías regionales, considerando los distintos impulsores y oportunidades de cada país? ¿Qué países muestran más apetito por la deuda y el capital en infraestructura y energía para 2026?\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLas inversiones en infraestructura y energía en la región están fuertemente influenciadas por factores globales y locales. México se encuentra en una posición intermedia: los cambios en el comercio global impulsarán la demanda de infraestructura logística, parques industriales y energía, gracias a su integración con el mercado estadounidense. No obstante, las condiciones comerciales con EE. UU. siguen siendo inciertas, y las recientes reformas judiciales han generado preocupación sobre el estado de derecho y la ejecución de contratos, elementos fundamentales para atraer inversiones a largo plazo.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEn contraste, Brasil se beneficia de un mercado de capitales profundo y de una sólida cartera de asociaciones público-privadas. Su entorno regulatorio es relativamente estable, lo que impulsa las inversiones en transmisión, renovables y proyectos energéticos, especialmente los liderados por Petrobras.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nChile, por su parte, también atrae deuda para financiar inversiones en renovables y almacenamiento de energía, respaldado por un marco regulatorio sólido y objetivos claros de descarbonización. Sin embargo, su dependencia de los ciclos de las materias primas globales genera cierta volatilidad. En cuanto a Colombia y Perú, ambos países adoptan un enfoque más cauteloso debido a la incertidumbre regulatoria y política.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>Hablando específicamente sobre México, ¿cómo se posiciona México en este escenario macroregional, considerando la nueva administración, la reforma judicial y la relación con EE. UU.? ¿Qué sectores estructurantes se beneficiarán más?\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nMéxico se encuentra en una encrucijada de oportunidades y desafíos. La relación económica con EE. UU., especialmente en manufactura y cadenas de suministro, posiciona al país como un beneficiario clave del nearshoring. Las empresas estadounidenses que reubican su producción cerca de Norteamérica aumentan la demanda de parques industriales, infraestructura logística y energética.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl acuerdo comercial USMCA ofrece un marco estable para el comercio, pero la revisión del tratado en 2026 y las tensiones actuales añaden incertidumbre. Además, la reforma judicial de 2024 ha generado riesgos institucionales, ya que ha debilitado la independencia judicial, lo que afecta la confianza de los inversionistas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nA pesar de estos desafíos, los sectores con mayores perspectivas de inversión son la manufactura, especialmente en autopartes, electrónica y componentes industriales. El sector energético también está experimentando una transformación significativa, con nuevas reglas que permiten la participación privada en la generación y el petróleo, aunque bajo una supervisión estatal.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl gobierno tiene planeado invertir hasta 43 mil millones de dólares en la expansión de la red eléctrica, con énfasis en energías renovables como solar y eólica, aunque el gas natural seguirá siendo relevante en la matriz energética. Otros sectores prometedores incluyen aeropuertos, telecomunicaciones, bienes raíces industriales y minería.\r\n\u003Cp dir=\"ltr\">\u003Cem>Dado que el nearshoring sigue impulsando la demanda eléctrica y la inversión en manufactura, ¿cuáles son los principales cuellos de botella que impiden el pleno aprovechamiento de este fenómeno? \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUno de los cuellos de botella más críticos en México está en la capacidad de transmisión y la falta de infraestructura instalada suficiente para satisfacer la creciente demanda eléctrica. Esto es particularmente visible en las regiones del norte y Bajío, donde el crecimiento industrial es más acelerado.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa red eléctrica no ha evolucionado al mismo ritmo que la demanda, lo que genera congestiones y complica la integración de nuevos proyectos renovables. Además, las subestaciones en muchas zonas industriales son insuficientes, lo que retrasa la conexión de nuevos proyectos y aumenta los costos asociados.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa expansión de la infraestructura de transmisión y la mejora de las subestaciones serían fundamentales para acelerar la integración de proyectos renovables y reducir los costos de conexión. En el contexto global, la creciente demanda de electricidad está generando retrasos en los pedidos de equipos para turbinas y plantas térmicas, lo que añade presión sobre la fiabilidad del sistema eléctrico mexicano.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>Frente a esto ¿Cuál es el estado actual del plan de inversión de México en el sector eléctrico y en los esfuerzos de transición hacia la energía limpia? \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nMéxico tiene como objetivo agregar 29 GW de nueva capacidad eléctrica para 2030, de los cuales 16 GW provendrán de fuentes renovables como solar, eólica y almacenamiento en baterías. El gobierno ha comprometido US$ 33.5 mil millones en inversión pública, mientras que se espera una inversión privada de US$ 9.9 mil millones.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nEl plan se enfoca principalmente en actualizar la infraestructura de transmisión y distribución, lo que representa una inversión significativa en áreas clave como la transmisión (US$ 7.5 mil millones) y la distribución (US$ 3.6 mil millones). No obstante, los desafíos persisten, incluidos la incertidumbre institucional, la capacidad financiera limitada de la CFE y los riesgos macroeconómicos, como las altas tasas de interés y las tensiones comerciales.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nAunque el nuevo marco regulatorio da más claridad para la participación privada, existen preocupaciones sobre el estado de derecho y la independencia judicial. México aún no ha fijado un objetivo formal de emisiones netas cero, lo que ralentiza los esfuerzos de transición energética en comparación con otros países de la región.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>Tras la mejora en la calificación de PEMEX a B1 con perspectiva estable, ¿cuáles fueron los factores determinantes en el modelo de Moody’s para esta decisión?\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa mejora de la calificación de PEMEX a B1 fue impulsada principalmente por el fuerte apoyo del gobierno mexicano, que ha comprometido alrededor de 50 mil millones de dólares en medidas de apoyo multianuales. Esto incluye mecanismos para asegurar el pago oportuno de la deuda a corto plazo, lo que reduce el riesgo de refinanciamiento. No obstante, los desafíos operativos de PEMEX en la exploración, producción y refinación siguen siendo significativos. La mejora en la calificación dependerá de la capacidad de PEMEX para demostrar una recuperación sostenible en su desempeño operativo y fortalecer su liquidez.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>¿Cuáles son los principales factores que influyen en la perspectiva negativa de la calificación soberana de México? ¿Qué podría estabilizar la perspectiva?\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nLa perspectiva negativa de México refleja el deterioro de su posición fiscal en 2024, impulsado por un aumento del déficit, mayores costos de deuda e intereses, y la creciente presión de gastos rígidos como pensiones y apoyo a PEMEX. Aunque el gobierno está implementando medidas de consolidación fiscal, los riesgos institucionales y la incertidumbre generada por las reformas judiciales y las tensiones con EE. UU. podrían seguir afectando la confianza de los inversionistas.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\nUn cambio hacia una perspectiva estable dependería de la capacidad del gobierno para estabilizar la carga de deuda y mejorar la sostenibilidad fiscal, especialmente en un contexto de mayor volatilidad económica y financiera.\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cem>Ejecutivos clave de Moody's estuvieron presentes en el foro \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Finfrastructure\u002Fevent\u002Fmexico-gri-infra-energy-2025_4862\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cstrong>México GRI Infra & Energy 2025\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>, donde ofrecieron su análisis sobre el panorama económico de México y los desafíos que enfrentan los sectores de infraestructura y energía. Este foro reunió a altos funcionarios del gobierno, reguladores, inversionistas institucionales, desarrolladores de infraestructura, empresas del sector energético y agencias multilaterales. Según la empresa: “La relevncia de GRI Institute reside en promover un diálogo abierto y directo entre los tomadores de decisión, ayudando a definir prioridades y construir consenso sobre las necesidades urgentes de infraestructura en el país".\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cbr \u002F>\r\n\u003Cstrong>Este texto no representa necesariamente la opinión de \u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"1\">\u003Cspan class=\"company-profile-link\" data-id=\"20971\">GRI Institute\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>. \u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n","Moody's México y su visión del sector de infraestructura","GRI Institute entrevista en exclusiva ejecutivos de Moody's ratings para compreender cual es el panorama económico del país y como éste afecta las inversiones en infraestructura y energía","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F500x500_px_Social_[23]_2025_10_24_15_57_05_1761332225.jpg","2025-10-24T15:38:01.000Z","2025-11-04T13:11:35.000Z",{"code":23},{"id":5,"color":7,"translations":1474},[1475,1477,1479],{"title":6,"slug":11,"language":1476},{"code":13},{"title":15,"slug":16,"language":1478},{"code":18},{"title":20,"slug":21,"language":1480},{"code":23},[1482],{"id":136,"label":1051,"translations":1483},[1484,1486,1488],{"label":1051,"slug":1062,"language":1485},{"code":13},{"label":1065,"slug":1066,"language":1487},{"code":18},{"label":1069,"slug":1070,"language":1489},{"code":23},[1491],{"name":567,"enName":567,"ptName":567,"iso2":1492},"MX",[1494],{"name":1495,"slug":1496,"image":1497,"order":115},"Belén Palkovsky","belen-palkovsky","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002F080A1419_2025_11_04_11_24_07_1762266247.jpg",{"es":1499},"\u002Finfraestructura\u002Fentrevista-exclusiva-de-gri-institute-con-moody-s-mexico",[1501,1502,1503,1504,1505,1506],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]