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En los últimos años, prácticamente todos los mercados relevantes para la inversión inmobiliaria institucional -México, Brasil, Colombia, Perú, Chile, Argentina, Ecuador y Bolivia- inauguraron o renovaron administraciones con orientaciones económicas dispares.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Para las desarrolladoras, los fondos inmobiliarios y los operadores locales, la cuestión central radica menos en la volatilidad política en sí y más en cómo esta se refleja en los precios de los activos reales y qué destinos de la región convierten la estabilidad institucional en una prima de retorno.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Como se verá a continuación, los mercados con capacidad demostrada para implementar políticas fiscales creíbles, mantener la certeza jurídica contractual y preservar la liquidez cambiaria son recompensados con mayores flujos y un menor costo de capital. El resto enfrenta primas de riesgo crecientes que encarecen el financiamiento y reducen la liquidez.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cem>El panel inaugural del \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Latin America GRI Real Estate, en Miami\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>, presentará las perspectivas de grandes gestores sobre los cambios de gobierno en América Latina, oportunidades, riesgos y valuación de activos. \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Conozca más\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>.\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>El giro radical argentino\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>Siendo uno de los primeros países de este ciclo en renovar su liderazgo, Argentina eligió a Javier Milei en noviembre de 2023, iniciando su mandato al mes siguiente.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>La derogación integral de la Ley de Alquileres mediante el Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia (DNU) 70\u002F2023 restableció la libertad contractual, con libre elección de moneda e indexadores. El resultado fue un incremento superior al 170% en la oferta de arrendamiento residencial en Buenos Aires, una caída real en los precios y una inyección de liquidez derivada del blanqueo de capitales, impulsando la valorización del metro cuadrado desde rangos de US$ 1.800-2.000 hasta niveles por encima de los US$ 2.500, según Zonaprop.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Asimismo, la estrategia predominante es la dolarización contractual, donde tanto el precio de venta como el canon de arrendamiento se fijan y liquidan en dólares estadounidenses. Los inversionistas argentinos también buscan exposición directa al mercado inmobiliario de Estados Unidos a través de vehículos que permiten ingresar a operaciones consolidadas en dólares, mitigando de raíz el riesgo cambiario local.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En México, \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fes\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Ffinanciamiento-inmobiliario-en-mexico-continua-dependiendo-de-la-banca-comercial\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cstrong>la dolarización contractual también opera como cobertura ante la depreciación de la divisa\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>, mientras que El Salvador adopta plenamente el dólar como moneda de curso legal.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Volviendo a Argentina, el país vio retroceder su inflación interanual desde el 211% registrado en 2023 -el nivel más elevado del siglo XXI a nivel local- hasta el 31,5% acumulado en 2025. En consecuencia, la tasa de interés de referencia descendió del 133% anual al 29% actual.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Esta corrección fue posible gracias a un conjunto de medidas agresivas de austeridad fiscal y disciplina monetaria, que incluyeron el fin de la emisión monetaria para financiar el gasto público, la reducción de subsidios estatales a las tarifas de energía, agua, gas y transporte, la disolución de dependencias públicas, la desvinculación de empleados estatales y el congelamiento de transferencias discrecionales a las provincias.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En el plano comercial, el gobierno federal desreguló barreras arancelarias y facilitó el ingreso de bienes importados. La mayor competencia obligó a la industria y al comercio domésticos a contener o reducir precios para preservar su competitividad.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>El dividendo de la alternancia\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>Colombia representa el testimonio más claro de cómo una transición de gobierno promercado \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fes\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fla-proxima-frontera-del-capital-institucional-en-el-mercado-colombiano\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cstrong>puede dinamizar capital represado\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>. Tras años de incertidumbre bajo la administración previa -que derivó en recortes de calificación crediticia por parte de S&P y Moody's en 2025-, la elección de Abelardo de la Espriella actuó como catalizador de confianza.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Una declaración pública ilustra este fenómeno: la proveedora de insumos para la construcción Madecentro anunció inversiones por US$ 4 millones destinadas a expandir sus operaciones. Su fundador, Dimas Tobón, señaló de forma explícita: \"Todas las inversiones están en stand-by y se activan por el cambio de gobierno\".\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Pese a este optimismo, el sector inmobiliario colombiano enfrenta fricciones concretas. Las tasas de interés de los créditos hipotecarios residenciales escalaron 200 puntos básicos en el acumulado de 2026 hasta julio, situándose en el 14% frente a una media histórica del 10%. El colapso del programa Mi Casa Ya en diciembre de 2024 contrajo la inversión en vivienda del 5% al 2,9% del PIB, redirigiendo los flujos de capital hacia activos corporativos y logísticos dolarizados.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Los cap rates en el segmento corporativo se mantienen en torno al 8,5% y las tasas de descuento rondan el 12,5%, frente a un bono soberano a 10 años cotizando al 11,8%; una compresión de spreads que indica que las valuaciones aún no descuentan plenamente el nuevo costo del capital, según análisis de El Dorado Capital Advisors.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En Perú, la inestabilidad política recurrente (reflejada en una sucesión de nueve presidentes en la última década) no impidió la resiliencia en los perfiles crediticios corporativos ni el avance de obras estratégicas como la Línea 2 del Metro de Lima o el megapuerto de Chancay.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>BNamericas constató que, pese al ruido político, \"las empresas lograron preservar sus perfiles crediticios\" y se concretaron \"operaciones de fusiones y adquisiciones muy significativas\" entre finales de 2025 y principios de 2026. El programa de la presidenta Keiko Fujimori sitúa la inversión privada como eje central del crecimiento, ofreciendo estabilidad jurídica, simplificación de trámites e incentivos tributarios para las empresas.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>El impacto del proceso electoral \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fes\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fspotlight-peru-busca-escalar-la-vivienda-residencial\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cstrong>en el segmento residencial se concentró en el estrato socioeconómico alto\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>. En Lima, el valor medio del metro cuadrado se ubicó en S\u002F 6.886 en abril. No obstante, entre el 10% y el 15% de los compradores de los segmentos A y B postergó decisiones de adquisición durante el periodo electoral, fundamentalmente en distritos como Miraflores, San Isidro y Surco. Dicha demanda contenida podría efectivizarse ante el despeje de la incertidumbre política.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Otro caso relevante se observa en Costa Rica, donde la candidata de centroderecha Laura Fernández fue electa presidenta en febrero. La nación centroamericana continúa consolidándose como un destino preferencial para manufactura avanzada al amparo del régimen de zonas francas, con incentivos específicos para dispositivos médicos y alta tecnología. \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fnews.griinstitute.org\u002Fes\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fnearshoring-se-desacelera-en-mexico\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cstrong>Aunque el fenómeno del nearshoring tiene su epicentro en México\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>, la sintonía estratégica entre Fernández y el presidente Donald Trump proyecta un entorno favorable para acelerar el desarrollo del sector en Costa Rica.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Mayor cautela en Brasil y México\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>La reelección de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva en Brasil por un estrecho margen abre el escenario más complejo de la región para el negocio inmobiliario. La deuda pública bruta alcanzó R$ 11,1 billones, equivalente al 82,9% del PIB, en tanto que el gobierno proyecta una expansión económica de apenas 2,3% para 2027.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>La confirmación del resultado electoral presionó a la baja la renta variable e impulsó la cotización del dólar a R$ 5,35. Por ahora, persiste la incertidumbre respecto a la orientación que adoptará el Banco Central en relación con la tasa de interés de referencia (Selic), actualmente en el 13,75% anual, en un contexto donde la proyección de inflación se sitúa en 4,99%.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En un informe difundido tras la jornada electoral, UBS fijó tres condiciones determinantes para que los inversionistas recompongan su exposición a activos brasileños: un paquete de ajuste fiscal concreto y cuantificado; la compatibilización de promesas de campaña estimadas en más de R$ 300.000 millones con el rigor presupuestario; y una ruta de aprobación legislativa viable en un Congreso de mayoría conservadora antes del cierre del año.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>De no configurarse estas señales, la entidad anticipa que el mercado accionario, el tipo de cambio y los rendimientos de la deuda soberana volverán a niveles previos a la primera vuelta electoral, con riesgo de deterioro adicional en el corto plazo.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Por su parte, J.P. Morgan subraya que las primeras directrices estratégicas quedarán definidas por la designación del ministro de Hacienda y la configuración del Presupuesto 2027, el cual requiere ratificación parlamentaria antes de fin de año. Asimismo, los comicios para la presidencia de la Cámara de Diputados y del Senado en febrero permitirán dimensionar la gobernabilidad del Ejecutivo en el legislativo.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En México, las discrepancias ideológicas entre la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum y el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump derivaron en la exigencia formal de Washington de aplicar revisiones anuales al tratado comercial T-MEC, encendiendo alarmas en el sector inmobiliario industrial.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Paralelamente, la reforma constitucional para la elección por voto popular de jueces y magistrados incrementó el riesgo de contraparte e incertidumbre contractual. A fin de eludir la jurisdicción de los tribunales locales y neutralizar el riesgo de un poder judicial politizado, el capital institucional comenzó a exigir cláusulas de arbitraje internacional independiente (con sedes en plazas como Nueva York o París bajo reglamentos CCI\u002FCIADI).\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En Chile, el riesgo derivado de los procesos constituyentes entre 2020 y 2023, con iniciativas que contemplaban reformas estructurales al régimen de propiedad, aceleró la salida de capitales institucionales y grandes family offices hacia el sur de la Florida y la península ibérica. El mercado doméstico recuperó tracción tras el rechazo ciudadano de los borradores en las urnas en 2022 y 2023. Desde marzo, la presidencia está a cargo de José Antonio Kast.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Implicaciones estratégicas\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>El análisis de los ciclos electorales recientes evidencia la necesidad de disociar la retórica política de la disciplina monetaria. Casos como el de Perú demuestran que la inestabilidad en el poder ejecutivo no paraliza el desarrollo inmobiliario siempre que la autoridad monetaria preserve su autonomía y los fundamentos de absorción de espacio físico se mantengan sólidos.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>En segundo término, la certidumbre institucional se descuenta en precio, no responde a meros deseos de mercado. Aquellas economías que garantizan una ejecución fiscal rigurosa -como el superávit argentino o las expectativas de apertura promercado en Chile- atraen flujos de capital e inducen la compresión de márgenes crediticios. Por el contrario, los mercados con inconsistencia fiscal (como Brasil en la coyuntura actual) quedan obligados a convalidar primas crecientes para captar financiamiento.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Frente a cualquier coyuntura, el diseño contractual constituye la primera línea de defensa frente al riesgo político. El establecimiento de bandas cambiarias, mecanismos automáticos de renegociación y contratos denominados en moneda dura resultan herramientas mucho más determinantes que el intento de anticipar desenlaces electorales.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Ajustar con rigor las tasas de descuento y estructurar blindajes legales sólidos permite transformar las transiciones políticas en América Latina en catalizadores de valor y expansión de portafolios. La perspectiva de inversión de largo plazo se consolida como la estrategia más eficaz para atravesar la volatilidad política regional.\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cul>\u003Cli>Brasil enfrenta una prueba de credibilidad fiscal que condicionará el costo del capital. La deuda bruta alcanzó el 82,9% del PIB y los compromisos de campaña del presidente reelecto, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, podrían costar hasta R$ 400.000 millones.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>Colombia y Perú ilustran el dividendo de la alternancia promercado: en Colombia, las empresas desbloquearon inversiones explícitamente vinculadas a la confianza en el nuevo gobierno; en Perú, ProInversión estructuró una cartera de US$ 19.800 millones en APP, con un 72% dependiente de la nueva administración.\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>En México, los derivados sobre el dólar saltaron del 21,6% al 31,2% del mercado en 2025; en Argentina, la dolarización contractual es la única protección viable; en El Salvador, la dolarización oficial elimina por completo el costo de cobertura (hedge).\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>","Cambios de poder mueven el real estate en América Latina","power shifts,latin america,inversión,mercado inmobiliario","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F89c2a97598d3467c4d062538c5f1a90dd93c438278a3ace46d8ce64f377f8103.webp",{"code":23},{"id":1440,"newsId":1416,"languageId":379,"title":1441,"subtitle":1442,"content":1443,"summary":8,"takeaways":1444,"seoTagConversionId":8,"seoTag":8,"seoTitle":1441,"seoKeywords":8,"seoDescription":1442,"seoAbstract":8,"seoImage":1445,"createdAt":1428,"updatedAt":8,"language":1446},6254,"Power shifts energize Latin America’s real estate market","Argentina, Colombia and Peru open a window of opportunity with pro-market transitions; see the outlook for other countries as well","\u003Cp>Latin America is going through its most intense cycle of political transitions in a decade. In recent years, virtually every market relevant to institutional real estate investment — Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia — has inaugurated or renewed administrations with divergent economic orientations.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>For developers, real estate funds and local operators, the central question is less about political volatility itself and more about how it is reflected in real asset prices, and which destinations in the region turn institutional stability into a return premium.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>As will be seen below, markets with a proven ability to implement credible fiscal policies, maintain contractual legal certainty and preserve FX liquidity are rewarded with larger inflows and a lower cost of capital. The rest face rising risk premiums that make financing more expensive and reduce liquidity.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cem>The opening panel of \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Latin America GRI Real Estate, in Miami\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cem>, will present the views of major investment managers on changes of government in Latin America, opportunities, risks and asset valuation. \u003C\u002Fem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.griinstitute.org\u002Frealestate\u002Fevent\u002Flatin-america-gri-real-estate-2026-miami-edition_5323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cem>Learn more.\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Argentina’s radical shift\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>As one of the first countries in this cycle to renew its leadership, Argentina elected Javier Milei in November 2023, and he took office the following month.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The full repeal of the Rental Law through Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) 70\u002F2023 restored freedom of contract, with free choice of currency and indexation. The result was an increase of more than 170% in residential rental supply in Buenos Aires, a real decline in prices and an injection of liquidity from the tax amnesty (capital repatriation) program, pushing values per square meter from a range of US$1,800–2,000 to levels above US$2,500, according to Zonaprop.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The prevailing strategy is contractual dollarization, under which both the sale price and the rent are set and paid in US dollars. Argentine investors are also seeking direct exposure to the US real estate market through vehicles that provide access to established dollar-denominated operations, eliminating local currency risk at its root.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In Mexico, contractual dollarization also serves as a hedge against currency depreciation, while El Salvador has fully adopted the dollar as legal tender.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Back in Argentina, year-over-year inflation fell from 211% in 2023 — the country’s highest level this century — to a cumulative 31.5% in 2025. As a result, the benchmark interest rate dropped from 133% a year to the current 29%.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>This correction was made possible by a set of aggressive fiscal austerity and monetary discipline measures, including ending money printing to finance public spending, cutting state subsidies on energy, water, gas and transportation rates, dissolving government agencies, laying off public employees and freezing discretionary transfers to the provinces.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>On the trade front, the federal government dismantled tariff barriers and eased the entry of imported goods. Greater competition forced domestic industry and retail to hold or cut prices to remain competitive.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>The dividend of political alternation\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>Colombia offers the clearest evidence of how a pro-market change of government can unlock pent-up capital. After years of uncertainty under the previous administration — which led to credit rating downgrades by S&P and Moody’s in 2025 — the election of Abelardo de la Espriella acted as a catalyst for confidence.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>One public statement illustrates this phenomenon: construction supplies provider Madecentro announced investments of US$4 million to expand its operations. Its founder, Dimas Tobón, said explicitly: “All investments are on standby and will be activated by the change of government.”\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Despite this optimism, Colombia’s real estate sector faces concrete headwinds. Residential mortgage rates climbed 200 basis points year-to-date through July 2026, reaching 14% compared with a historical average of 10%. The collapse of the Mi Casa Ya program in December 2024 shrank housing investment from 5% to 2.9% of GDP, redirecting capital flows toward dollar-denominated office and logistics assets.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Office cap rates remain around 8.5% and discount rates hover near 12.5%, compared with a 10-year sovereign bond yielding 11.8% — a spread compression indicating that valuations have not yet fully priced in the new cost of capital, according to an analysis by El Dorado Capital Advisors.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In Peru, recurring political instability (reflected in a succession of nine presidents over the past decade) has not prevented resilience in corporate credit profiles or progress on strategic projects such as Lima Metro Line 2 and the Chancay megaport.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>BNamericas found that, despite the political noise, “companies managed to preserve their credit profiles” and “very significant M&A transactions” were completed between late 2025 and early 2026. President Keiko Fujimori’s program places private investment at the center of growth, offering legal stability, streamlined procedures and tax incentives for businesses.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>The impact of the electoral process on the residential segment was concentrated in the high-income bracket. In Lima, the average value per square meter stood at S\u002F6,886 in April. However, 10% to 15% of buyers in the A and B segments postponed purchasing decisions during the election period, mainly in districts such as Miraflores, San Isidro and Surco. This pent-up demand could materialize as political uncertainty clears.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Another relevant case is Costa Rica, where center-right candidate Laura Fernández was elected president in February. The Central American nation continues to consolidate its position as a preferred destination for advanced manufacturing under its free trade zone regime, with specific incentives for medical devices and high technology.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Although Mexico is the epicenter of nearshoring, the strategic alignment between Fernández and President Donald Trump points to a favorable environment for accelerating the sector’s development in Costa Rica.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Greater caution in Brazil and Mexico\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s narrow reelection in Brazil opens up the most complex scenario in the region for the real estate business. Gross public debt has reached R$11.1 trillion, equivalent to 82.9% of GDP, while the government projects economic growth of just 2.3% for 2027.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Confirmation of the election result weighed on equities and pushed the dollar up to R$5.35. For now, uncertainty persists over the stance the Central Bank will take on the benchmark interest rate (Selic), currently at 13.75% a year, against an inflation forecast of 4.99%.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In a report released after election day, UBS set out three conditions for investors to rebuild their exposure to Brazilian assets: a concrete, quantified fiscal adjustment package; reconciling campaign promises estimated at more than R$300 billion with budget discipline; and a viable path to legislative approval in a conservative-majority Congress before year-end.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>If these signals fail to materialize, the bank expects the stock market, the exchange rate and sovereign debt yields to return to levels seen before the first round of voting, with a risk of further deterioration in the short term.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>J.P. Morgan, for its part, stresses that the first strategic guidelines will be defined by the appointment of the finance minister and the shape of the 2027 Budget, which requires congressional approval before the end of the year. In addition, the February elections for the leadership of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate will gauge the Executive’s ability to govern in Congress.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In Mexico, ideological differences between President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President Donald Trump led to Washington’s formal demand for annual reviews of the USMCA trade agreement (known as T-MEC in Mexico), raising red flags in the industrial real estate sector.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>At the same time, the constitutional reform providing for the popular election of judges and magistrates has increased counterparty risk and contractual uncertainty. To avoid the jurisdiction of local courts and neutralize the risk of a politicized judiciary, institutional capital has begun to require independent international arbitration clauses (seated in venues such as New York or Paris under ICC\u002FICSID rules).\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>In Chile, the risk stemming from the 2020–2023 constitutional processes, with initiatives that contemplated structural reforms to the property regime, accelerated the flight of institutional capital and large family offices to South Florida and the Iberian Peninsula. The domestic market regained traction after voters rejected the drafts at the ballot box in 2022 and 2023. Since March, the presidency has been held by José Antonio Kast.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>Strategic implications\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>An analysis of recent election cycles shows the need to separate political rhetoric from monetary discipline. Cases such as Peru show that instability in the executive branch does not paralyze real estate development as long as the monetary authority preserves its independence and space absorption fundamentals remain solid.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Second, institutional certainty is priced in; it does not respond to mere market wishes. Economies that ensure rigorous fiscal execution — such as Argentina’s surplus or the expectations of pro-market opening in Chile — attract capital flows and drive credit spread compression. Conversely, markets with fiscal inconsistency (such as Brazil at the current juncture) are forced to pay rising premiums to secure financing.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Whatever the circumstances, contract design is the first line of defense against political risk. Currency bands, automatic renegotiation mechanisms and hard-currency contracts are far more decisive tools than trying to predict election outcomes.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Rigorously adjusting discount rates and structuring robust legal safeguards make it possible to turn political transitions in Latin America into catalysts for value creation and portfolio expansion. A long-term investment perspective is emerging as the most effective strategy for navigating the region’s political volatility.\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cp>• Brazil faces a fiscal credibility test that will shape the cost of capital. Gross debt has reached 82.9% of GDP, and the campaign pledges of reelected President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could cost up to R$400 billion.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>• Colombia and Peru illustrate the dividend of a pro-market transition: in Colombia, companies unlocked investments explicitly tied to confidence in the new government; in Peru, ProInversión structured a US$19.8 billion pipeline of public-private partnerships (PPPs), 72% of which depends on the new administration.\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>• In Mexico, US dollar derivatives jumped from 21.6% to 31.2% of the market in 2025; in Argentina, contractual dollarization is the only viable protection; in El Salvador, official dollarization eliminates hedging costs altogether.\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews\u002F5a2454aa5128af1da91f3527cc3ce83248cf14d61117cecc23fddf1e0f7ca3d4.webp",{"code":13},{"id":25,"color":27,"translations":1448},[1449,1451,1453],{"title":26,"slug":30,"language":1450},{"code":13},{"title":33,"slug":34,"language":1452},{"code":18},{"title":37,"slug":38,"language":1454},{"code":23},[1456,1470,1484,1498,1512],{"id":613,"label":1457,"translations":1458},"Asset & Portfolio Management",[1459,1462,1466],{"label":1457,"slug":1460,"language":1461},"asset-portfolio-management",{"code":13},{"label":1463,"slug":1464,"language":1465},"Gestão de Ativos e Portfólio","gestao-de-ativos-e-portfolio",{"code":18},{"label":1467,"slug":1468,"language":1469},"Gestión de Activos y Portafolio","gestion-de-activos-y-portafolio",{"code":23},{"id":674,"label":1471,"translations":1472},"Cross-Border Investment Flow",[1473,1476,1480],{"label":1471,"slug":1474,"language":1475},"cross-border-investment-flow",{"code":13},{"label":1477,"slug":1478,"language":1479},"Fluxo de Investimento Cross-Border","fluxo-de-investimento-cross-border",{"code":18},{"label":1481,"slug":1482,"language":1483},"Flujo de Inversión Cross-Border","flujo-de-inversion-cross-border",{"code":23},{"id":736,"label":1485,"translations":1486},"Funding & Capital Markets",[1487,1490,1494],{"label":1485,"slug":1488,"language":1489},"funding-capital-markets",{"code":13},{"label":1491,"slug":1492,"language":1493},"Financiamento e Mercado de Capitais","financiamento-e-mercado-de-capitais",{"code":18},{"label":1495,"slug":1496,"language":1497},"Financiamiento y Mercado de Capitales","financiamiento-y-mercado-de-capitales",{"code":23},{"id":759,"label":1499,"translations":1500},"Investment Cycle",[1501,1504,1508],{"label":1499,"slug":1502,"language":1503},"investment-cycle",{"code":13},{"label":1505,"slug":1506,"language":1507},"Ciclo de Investimento","ciclo-de-investimento",{"code":18},{"label":1509,"slug":1510,"language":1511},"Ciclo de Inversión","ciclo-de-inversion",{"code":23},{"id":787,"label":1513,"translations":1514},"Macroeconomic & Demographics trends",[1515,1518,1522],{"label":1513,"slug":1516,"language":1517},"macroeconomic-demographics-trends",{"code":13},{"label":1519,"slug":1520,"language":1521},"Tendências Macroeconômicas e Demográficas","tendencias-macroeconomicas-e-demograficas",{"code":18},{"label":1523,"slug":1524,"language":1525},"Tendencias Macroeconómicas y Demográficas","tendencias-macroeconomicas-y-demograficas",{"code":23},[1527,1529,1531,1533,1536,1538,1540],{"name":572,"enName":572,"ptName":572,"iso2":1528},"AR",{"name":651,"enName":651,"ptName":651,"iso2":1530},"BR",{"name":696,"enName":696,"ptName":696,"iso2":1532},"CL",{"name":709,"enName":709,"ptName":1534,"iso2":1535},"Colômbia","CO",{"name":725,"enName":725,"ptName":725,"iso2":1537},"CR",{"name":1043,"enName":1043,"ptName":1043,"iso2":1539},"MX",{"name":1151,"enName":1151,"ptName":1151,"iso2":1541},"PE",[1543],{"name":1544,"slug":1545,"image":1546,"order":600},"Henrique Cisman","henrique-cisman","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.griinstitute.org\u002Fuploads\u002Fhubnews_author\u002FHenrique_Marcal_Cisman_GRI_Institute_Profile_PIC_2025_11_04_11_31_12_1762266672.jpg",{"es":1548,"en":1549},"\u002Fmercado-inmobiliario\u002Fcambios-de-poder-dinamizan-el-mercado-inmobiliario-en-america-latina","\u002Freal-estate\u002Fcambios-de-poder-dinamizan-el-mercado-inmobiliario-en-america-latina",{"level":1425,"gated":1420},[1552,1553,1554,1555,1556,1557],"Infra Brazil","Infra Latam","Real Estate Brazil","Real Estate Europe","Real Estate India","Real Estate Latam"]